Exactly 41 games in, the New York Islanders have had quite an eventful 2023-24 season. From the team’s seven-game losing streak back in November to their 13-6-5 record since, their 48 points in 41 currently lands them third in the Metropolitan Division. However, the team has a few players to credit its success to more than others.
Forwards
Mathew Barzal, A+
Mathew Barzal is once again producing how Islanders’ fans expect him to. His 12 goals and 45 points in 40 games have set him on pace for career highs in both categories, and he is a key reason why the power play is no longer bottom of the league. His longtime chemistry with Anders Lee is as present as ever, and Bo Horvat’s first full season with the team has led the trio to become one of the most formidable lines in the league. Out of all qualified lines who have played over 250 even-strength minutes together this season, the Lee, Horvat and Barzal line sits sixth in expected goals share (xG%) with 58.4 percent, according to Money Puck.
Bo Horvat, A
Bo Horvat was traded for a haul last season and has done nothing but live up to the price in 2023-24. His 17 goals and 40 points in 40 games have him on pace to finish the season at a point-per-game for the first time in his career. Additionally, he is currently on pace to finish with 34 goals, which would be his second-highest total, four short of his 38 goals last season. Seven of his 17 goals this season have come on the power play, which was a massive struggle for the Islanders last season.
Horvat’s presence in the slot and around the net on the power play has added another threat to the Islanders’ top unit, opening up the ice for the likes of Barzal and Noah Dobson to skate more freely with the puck, leading to more chances close to the net which has led to an increase in production.
Anders Lee, B-
Anders Lee’s first half of the season was a tail of two halves. In his first 21 games, he scored just four goals and two assists. Since then, he has seven goals and four assists. Whether you attribute his poor start to not having chemistry or his skating being unable to keep up, it is obvious that he was bad to start the season. However, his analytics still show that he has been producing many scoring opportunities and is bound to have a great second half.
Despite only having 11 goals so far, he currently sits at 18.9 expected goals (xG). His -7.9 goals above expected are the third-lowest total in the NHL, only ahead of Florida Panthers’ Matthew Tkachuk and Toronto Maple Leafs’ John Tavares. Despite having such poor luck with finding the back of the net, Lee is still on pace to score over 20 goals. However, he is well in position to still find a way to get to the 30-goal mark if the puck bounces his way a bit better in the second half.
Brock Nelson, A-
Through the team’s offensive struggles in recent years, the one constant has been Brock Nelson. His 19 goals in 41 games have him on track to push the 40-goal mark once again, remaining one of the roster’s best scorers. His elite shot and ability to generate offense have made his line one of the best in the league. Centering Kyle Palmieri and Pierre Engvall, the three possess a 54.2 xG%, the 12th highest of any qualified line that has over 250 even strength minutes this season. Nelson’s 14.5 shooting percentage on the season would be the lowest he has finished with since the 2018-19 season, leaving fans with optimism for him to have an even better second half.
Pierre Engvall, C+
It is not entirely fair to be judging Pierre Engvall for his offensive production, but at some point, the goals need to come in. He has just five goals and 14 points in 39 games this season, despite being on the dominant second line with Nelson. However, a top-six role for Engvall is something that he is not used to, averaging around 12 to 13 minutes in his time with the Maple Leafs before now playing over 15 minutes a night.
Kyle Palmieri, B-
Kyle Palmieri comes in just above Engvall because he has produced a decent amount more. His 10 goals and 23 points have been a nice breath of fresh air for Islanders fans who have yet to see what he is truly capable of. Now seemingly fully healthy, Palmieri is finally in a position to hit the 20-goal mark with the Islanders. However, he will need to do more than score 20 goals to achieve a higher grade.
Simon Holmstrom, B+
The 22-year-old has shown some real promise in his development, with 11 goals and 16 points so far this season. Plus, five of those goals have come on the penalty kill, which has him tied for the league lead in that category. However, he still does not drive the play, piggybacking on the work done by center Jean-Gabriel Pageau in both even strength on the penalty kill.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C
It was a rough start to the season for the team’s third-line center. He had just two goals in his first 35 games of the season before a two-goal, four-point performance on Dec. 29 against the Washington Capitals. However, it has not been a disaster of a season, as he is starting to pick up steam with Holmstrom and Julien Gauthier playing his wings. Islanders fans should expect a great second half from Pageau.
Oliver Wahlstrom, D
It seems like Oliver Wahlstrom’s time on the Islanders may be coming to an end. He has struggled to stay in the lineup this season, appearing to have lost his spot to the team’s lone offseason addition, Julien Gauthier. In a year where fans were hoping for him to take a permanent leap into the top six by becoming an elite scoring threat, he has found himself with just two goals in 20 games played.
Julien Gauthier, A-
It is hard to come into a locker room with a team full of returnees and earn a spot in the lineup, but Gauthier did just that. He appears to have taken former first-round draft pick Oliver Wahlstrom’s spot on the third line by scoring five goals and nine points in just 21 games so far this season. Whether he will be able to keep it for the second half of the season is yet to be seen.
Matt Martin, C
Breaking down Mat Martin’s performance is always tough. Nobody expects him to come in and score goals, but that would be something nice to see come from the fourth line. Having just three points in 20 games this season, he has not done much to help the team get on the scoresheet. However, he is a plus-one on the season and has just 14 penalty minutes, leaving him as a pretty neutral player so far.
Casey Cizikas, B-
Casey Cizikas struggled in the 2022-23 season, scoring just six goals and 21 points in 81 games while also racking up 54 penalty minutes, a career-high. His 5.4 shooting percentage and six goals were both his lowest totals since his first season in 2011-12, where he went scoreless in 15 games.
This season, he has five goals, but more importantly, he’s leading the team’s fourth line, often referred to as the “Identity Line,” which typically consists of himself, Martin, and Cal Clutterbuck, back to what it used to be. The line possesses 52.4 xG% in 108.2 minutes together, the third-best line on the team in that category.
Cal Clutterbuck, B-
Clutterbuck’s first half is quite similar to that of his center, Casey Cizikas. Clutterbuck has played all 41 games so far this season, which is especially great to see for him, as he seems to always be battling some sort of injury. While he has just four goals, he is playing his role well, making that fourth line a strong shut-down threat.
Hudson Fasching, D-
This year has been rough for the winger, who has been bouncing in and out of the lineup, playing all over the bottom six. After having a really strong season last year, Hudson Fasching has just two goals in 28 games, and he has yet to find a spot in the lineup where he sticks.
Defense
Noah Dobson, A+
Despite not being the team’s auto-selection to the All-Star game, Noah Dobson has been having an incredible season. His six goals and 42 points in 41 games are what makes him stick out, but his presence has been much larger than just finding the scoresheet. In a season where the team has lost both Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock to the long-term injured reserve (LTIR), Dobson has stepped up massively.
Playing nearly 26 minutes a night, he currently leads the entire league in total minutes on the ice (1059), being the first skater to reach a thousand. He quarterbacks the team’s first power-play unit, leading them to above-average results, a big difference from being the third-worst power play in the league last season. He has also found himself on the penalty kill unit, a role he had minimal experience in before this season. Currently sitting fourth in Norris Trophy odds on FanDuel, DraftKings, and bet365, Dobson has leaped into superstardom, cementing himself as one of the league’s best young defensemen.
Adam Pelech, C
It is typically unfair to give worse grades to a player as a result of an injury, but that is exactly what is happening here. When he was placed on the LTIR on Nov. 25, it was his fourth time being out with a significant injury in less than a year and his second time with an upper-body injury. While he is now back, his time missed has strongly impacted the team’s outlook, forcing general manager Lou Lamoriello into picking up Mike Reilly off of waivers and playing rookie Samuel Bolduc more often than originally planned. As well, in his time on the ice, he looked like a shell of himself, potentially still fighting past injuries. Hopefully, now, he is fully healed and can return to his All-Star form.
Ryan Pulock, B
After playing all 82 games last season, Ryan Pulock found himself on the LTIR with Pelech. Unfortunately not nearing a return, Islanders fans will need to get used to life without him for the foreseeable future. However, in his time on the ice, Pulock was pretty standard. He looked just how you would expect him to, being a strong and responsible defensive presence who does not put up a lot of offensive production. He spent the bulk of his shifts alongside Alexander Romanov, where the two had a 51.3 xG%.
Alexander Romanov, A-
Availability is the best ability, and with Romanov being one of two defensemen to play all 41 games for the Islanders this season, his grade will reap the benefits. Tuning into an Islanders game, you will not notice much about his game at first glance. His name is rarely on the scoresheet, and he rarely leads rushes down the ice. Despite this, he still has four goals and 10 points so far this season. He is known, however, for being a strong defensive presence and making minimal mistakes in his own end.
Mike Reilly: A-
Mike Reilly had been on the minds of Islanders fans for quite a few years, and this was the season he finally put on the blue and orange. He was claimed on waivers on Nov. 25 after the team lost Pelech to injury, and he has been great since entering the lineup. His three goals and eight points are nothing to write home about, but he has been a solid defensive presence that head coach Lane Lambert has been able to rely on. With Pelech now healthy, Reilly’s spot on the roster is in question. However, he has a strong case to be left as the team’s seventh defenseman, at the very least.
Related: Which Islanders Stay & Go When the Roster is Healthy?
Of all Islanders’ defensive pairings with over 100 minutes played, Mike Reilly and Sebastian Aho have a 54.1% expected goals share (xG%), the highest of any pairing on the team. Reilly has always been an analytics darling, and the eye test only confirms these numbers. His fast-paced skating, paired with his puck-handling skills, are easily seen every time he steps on the ice, and he has been able to keep up very well with Barzal and Horvat on odd-man rushes. Islanders fans should hope that Reilly is not a casualty of a healthy defense.
Scott Mayfield, D-
This season has been one to forget for Scott Mayfield. Point blank, he has been bad on the ice. In just 26 games, he has four points. However, his struggles do not stem from the offensive side of the game. His most played pairing is alongside Sebastian Aho, where the two possess a 41.9 xG%. Additionally, Mayfield looks flat on his feet and has struggled with the puck. His 21 defensive zone turnovers trail Romanov’s 23 for most on the team despite playing a fraction of the games. Mayfield is also once again finding the penalty box more often than he should, with 21 penalty minutes thus far, an even more critical mistake considering the team’s injury struggles. Let’s hope that Mayfield can put behind his first-half struggles and look ahead to the second half of the season.
Sebastian Aho, B
Grading Sebastian Aho’s first half is the hardest of anyone on this team. His offense has been abysmal, having just one goal and zero primary assists. But he has not done much to hurt the team, either. He has played the third most games of any defenseman this season (32) and has just six penalty minutes. Just like Romanov, availability is key, and playing the majority of the team’s games is as valuable as ever this season.
Another difficult area to assess for Aho is evaluating just how impactful he truly is. His main partner this season has been Reilly, and the two have been a dominant pair, rocking a 54.1 xG%, the highest of any pairing with over 75 even strength minutes together this season. However, his second most played pairing is alongside Mayfield, where the two have a 41.9 xG%, the lowest in that same category. But with Aho not playing with Mayfield in quite a while, it appears that fans do not have to worry about seeing that combination again.
Robert Bortuzzo, D-
Robert Bortuzzo was acquired as a result of Pulock’s injury, and he has underwhelmed since coming over. He has played exclusively with Samuel Bolduc. When on the ice, Bortuzzo has done more harm than good, having 12 penalty minutes in just 11 games as an Islander. Additionally, he has been held pointless and has shown no ability to drive offense.
Samuel Bolduc, C-
Samuel Bolduc was thrown into becoming a full-time role with the team’s injuries this season, and he has done it all with a brave face. As a rookie, he has faced his fair share of adversity, frequently changing lines. Playing over 50 minutes with three different players (Pulock, Mayfield, Bortuzzo), he has been forced to learn on the fly and is sure to use this season as a lesson on what it takes to be a full-time NHLer.
Goaltenders
Ilya Sorokin, C
For most goalies, Ilya Sorokin has been having a solid season. But by his standards, he could be much better. He currently averages 3.19 goals against per game (GAA), a stark contrast from his 2.34 GAA last season. However, he has still been one of the better goalies in the league this season. According to Money Puck, he has 3.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
So, the numbers show that it is just not his fault. Facing over 34 shots a game, he has been worked tirelessly this season. With the defense in front of him finally getting healthy, expected his numbers to better reflect his abilities in the second half of the season.
Semyon Varlamov, A
Another year with the Islanders, more strong performances from Semyon Varlamov. At this point, fans should start calling him “Mr. Consistent.” Owning a 5.3 GSAx, .918 save percentage, and 2.78 GAA, he has been as stable as fans could hope in the crease. His report card is that simple. He has done what he has needed to do to help put the team in a position to win night in and night out.
As the Islanders currently sit on pace for 96 points, they can reflect back on the first half proud of the adversity they have overcome. However, it is important to look toward the second half and see that from top to bottom, this roster needs to improve its play if they want to make a serious playoff run. Whether it is Sorokin finding his stride in the net or the defense just getting fully healthy, the Islanders are poised to find greater success this second half.
