You can understand what the Montreal Canadiens are going for in the early incarnations of their lines in training camp. It was always a stretch, thinking they would play rookie Joshua Roy in the top six, especially without a Christian Dvorak trade having materialized.
So, playing Alex Newhook in Roy’s would-be spot, opposite Patrik Laine on centre Kirby Dach’s second line is logical. So is dropping Roy down a line to the third, beside de facto No. 3 centre Dvorak. However, putting Josh Anderson on that line should be considered a little too much wishful thinking on their part (unless the goal there is simply to unite the “Joshes,” out of convenience and a little fun, but why would it be, if Dvorak ruins it)?
It really just amounts to a bad joke though, as if they’re just joshing everyone. Get it?
Can Anderson Rebound?
Obviously, the hope is Anderson rebounds following a disappointing season in which he scored just nine goals and 20 points, when he’s generally been good for 20 goals per in a Canadiens uniform. And, with the acquisition of Patrik Laine, who justifiably has automatically received consideration for a top-six spot based on his pedigree as a former 40-goal scorer, the only other realistic spot for Anderson in on the fourth line. That obviously won’t help him get or keep him on track. However, playing him with Roy may have the same adverse impact on the latter’s play, which Anderson had on pretty much everyone in 2023-24.
It seems like a clear attempt to maximize what you get out of Anderson, as someone with an untradeable contract and a $5.5 million cap hit until 2027. That’s an understandable desired solution to the issue at hand, which is why it would have made sense to play Anderson with Dach before Laine got acquired, so as to put him in the best position to succeed. However, by playing Roy with him instead, you’re arguably putting him in the worst, which is less than ideal when you’re talking about a top prospect, with top-six potential.
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Realistically, at 30 years old, Anderson isn’t suddenly going to transform into even a 0.5 point-per-game player with the Canadiens. Roy just turned 21 and, while nothing is guaranteed, it’s safe to assume he has a significantly longer-term future with the franchise… unless the Habs kneecap him as a rookie.
Ylonen as a Cautionary Tale
And, if you don’t believe the Canadiens would, of course inadvertently, look to Jesse Ylonen as a cautionary tale. He effectively got stapled to the fourth line last season, despite breaking out to a degree the previous season, largely playing with Nick Suzuki and Rafael Harvey-Pinard. Sure, Suzuki had a great deal to do with Ylonen’s modest success that 2022-23 season, but you’re also talking about a still-young player who, as recently as the end of 2021-22, had been considered an analytics darling (from ‘Canadiens by the numbers: Jesse Ylonen offers more than meets the eye,’ Montreal Gazette, June 17, 2022).
That was true of Roy, who emerged as one of the Canadiens’ top forwards after the All-Star Game, last season. Now, two years later, Ylonen wasn’t even qualified by the organization after scoring eight points in 59 games, getting just 10:14 in ice time, which is less than American Hockey League-forward Brandon Gignac averaged in his seven games, after he got signed to an NHL deal, after the Habs traded Sean Monahan and were in need of a centre. Seeing as Ylonen formed one of his most-common line combinations with Jake Evans and Anderson, it kind of seems unlikely a similar situation would work out for Roy.
To be fair, Anderson did win the Molson Cup for December 2023 as the Canadiens player with the most “three-star” acknowledgements. However, the six goals and nine points he scored in the month (13 games) speak of a pro-rated 57-point season. That’s the type of production the Habs should be getting out of a $5.5 million player in general. He shouldn’t be overly celebrated for simply doing his job, especially when, despite his seemingly best efforts, he didn’t over the other six months of the season.
Honestly getting sick of the "Josh Anderson is playing so well!" segments.
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) December 14, 2023
There's one or two every night.
Look, he's had bad shooting luck, but he's not playing well. Last on the team in xGF% and shot share.
And few other players would get that much leeway.
Now again, to be fair, the above tweet did come before Anderson’s strongest stretch of the season. However, per MoneyPuck.com, he still finished in the bottom four on the team in terms of on-ice shot-attempt percentage (Corsi) and (actual) on-ice expected goals percentage (all five on five). Unfortunately for Roy, Dvorak placed right beside Anderson in each category. For whatever it’s worth, Ylonen was first on the team for on-ice goals percentage.
Now, one of the reasons Ylonen made the team last season was because he was no longer exempt from waivers. And you can kind of understand why the Canadiens relegated him to the fourth line, due to a lack of space and a desire to spread out the offense. However, if you’re putting Roy, who, despite his demonstrated ability to drive play, scored just four goals in 23 games, on a line with Dvorak and Anderson in the hopes it creates offense, you’re all but performing a goal dance, because divine intervention is what it would take.
It’s a legitimate concern the only reason Anderson was able to score as much as he did in the past as a Hab due to multiple chances in the top six. Take away the cushy deployment assignments and he’ll realistically struggle. So will Roy.
Roy and Armia Ride Again?
The plus side is Roy is still exempt from waivers. So, if it doesn’t work out, you can at least salvage some of his development back in the AHL. However, the Canadiens have a real chance to put him on a half-decent line and they’re, at the moment at least, unwilling to pull the trigger. It’s not even a Roy-Dach-Laine line as second unit. It’s a simple matter of reuniting Roy with Joel Armia, with whom he displayed chemistry both with the Laval Rocket last season (after Armia got cut out of training camp) and with the Habs. Whether it was with Newhook at centre or Monahan, he and Armia seemed to gel right off the bat.
Under normal circumstances you could understand why the Canadiens would have Armia pencilled in on the fourth line instead. However, based on the fact he’s playing for a new contract as a pending unrestricted free agent and how he’s coming off a bounce-back season, Armia, not Anderson, is the player you should be playing higher in the lineup.
Anderson is not a player on whom you want to give up based on the term left on his deal and the money owed to him. That’s fine. However, when you break it down, are you really putting him at more of a disadvantage than you did Ylonen last season? When Anderson’s skill set as a rugged, physical and speedy power forward better aligns with one’s vision of a stereotypical fourth-line forward? If you can place expectations on a young forward to earn his way up the lineup, it makes sense for you to ask the same of a veteran, especially if that veteran was never a top-six forward to start in terms of skill, especially if you’re establishing a meritocracy, which the Armia demotion signalled last season.
This is still training camp. So, a meritocracy can still take form. Things can change. Anderson can put together an incredible next few weeks to earn another chance with more ice time. Power to him, if he does. However, what no one should lose sight of is, while Roy has a lot to prove himself, he’s the one between the two who’s likeliest to have more to offer the Canadiens as their window to contend opens. That’s not even an opinion. That’s time. The Habs would be wise to take the limited amount of it they have to make the right decision this training camp (and everything else into consideration) and act accordingly.
