Alex Ovechkin needs only 13 goals to become the NHL’s greatest goal-scorer, as he’d surpass Wayne Gretzky‘s career mark of 894. With 25 games remaining, he’s actually on pace to make history this season, with 29 goals in 41 games to this point.
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There’s been a lot of focus on the all-time record aspect of this, and deservedly so. Ovechkin’s soon-to-be scoring title may take several generations to break, if it’s even broken at all. But the rate at which he is scoring this season is historic in its own right. In fact, it’s almost unfathomable.
Ovechkin Has NHL’s Second-Best Goal-Scoring Rate Since 2007-08
On a per-60 basis, it may surprise you to learn that Ovechkin is having the best goal-scoring season of his illustrious career. Among forwards with at least 500 minutes of ice time since 2007-08, his 2.41 goals per 60 minutes of play rank second out of 6,503 entries.
The top five goals-per-60 seasons in the list highlight Ovechkin’s absurd scoring rate pretty well. Auston Matthews ranks first, third, and fifth, and he was aged 25 and under in each of those campaigns. David Pastrnak made a fourth-place appearance, which he did at the age of 26. Ovechkin will celebrate his 40th birthday in September.
Aside from himself, nobody with Ovechkin’s wear and tear comes close to his goal-scoring rate this season. The next-highest 35-and-older player is Teemu Selanne, whose 1.73 goals per 60 minutes back in 2009-10 place him 88th overall. Still, that’s a substantial step down from what the Washington Capitals great is accomplishing. He is the ultimate outlier.
The easiest way to rationalize this is that Ovechkin is a man on a mission. The Capitals are putting him in a lot of empty-net situations, sure, but what he’s doing is beyond comprehension. He’s scoring at almost an identical rate to Matthews’ 69-goal campaign in 2023-24, despite a 13-year age gap. “The Great Eight” is impossibly good right now.
Capitals Are a True Stanley Cup Contender
Last season, the Capitals were admittedly a fluky playoff team. They were outscored by 37 goals, giving them the worst goal differential for a playoff team in over three decades. When they were swept by the New York Rangers in the opening round, it surprised no one.
This season, Washington is atop the NHL standings, ironically poised to switch places with the Rangers as Presidents’ Trophy winners. The Capitals made moves to improve in the offseason, no doubt, but it was more so a collection of “hockey” trades and some notable but non-star additions. Yet, all of a sudden, they are a contender.
What’s leaving some to question the Capitals’ status as a real threat for a Stanley Cup is their PDO, or sum of save and shooting percentage. They rank first and second in those categories respectively, which is contributing to their immense success, but that may not be sustainable moving forward. Puck luck is a real thing, and it’s benefitting the boys in D.C.
However, Washington’s incredible improvement from last season doesn’t just have to do with their efficiency in shooting and saving the puck. Rather, they’re simply a much-improved hockey team. With in-house progression up front, puck-moving on the defensive side taking a leap with the acquisition of Jakob Chychrun, and a Vezina Trophy-worthy showing from newcomer Logan Thompson, the Capitals are legit. Paired with a now-lethal center duo of Dylan Strome and Pierre-Luc Dubois, plus Ovechkin’s prime-era scoring rate, nothing has stopped them.
It may be in Washington’s best interest to pursue big names at the trade deadline to give themselves the best chance to dethrone the Florida Panthers as back-to-back winners of the Eastern Conference. The Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Tampa Bay Lightning, too, stand in their way. But none of those clubs come close to the 38-11-8 record the Capitals have put up—this team may not have much work to do.
Somewhat out of the blue, the Capitals are contenders again. They’ve seen a lot of growth from their roster, but none has been more impressive than Ovechkin’s. Should he beat Gretzky’s goal-scoring record in the coming weeks, it’s important to remember how he got there: through one of the most improbable seasons of all time, helping his team become a Stanley Cup favorite in the process.
