Remember the New Jersey Devils and Connor Hellebuyck rumors? Well, it seems like that dream may be dead since it appears Hellebuyck will start the 2023-24 season with the Winnipeg Jets. As for getting a goalie to allow Akira Schmid to start the new season with the Utica Comets in the AHL, that’s proven difficult with a goalie market that hasn’t materialized.
But even though training camp is already about five weeks away, the Devils may suddenly have a new option to monitor for goalie depth, that being the Montreal Canadiens. After acquiring Casey DeSmith in the Erik Karlsson trade, the Canadiens now have a glut of goalies the Devils should be keeping an eye on, whether it’s a trade or waivers around training camp.
Casey DeSmith
With Jake Allen, Sam Montembeault, Cayden Primeau — who’s waivers eligible — and DeSmith, there’s a good chance the Canadiens will either trade a goalie or lose one on waivers ahead of finalizing their opening-night roster. Even though DeSmith is insurance for the Canadiens, he will get the opportunity to earn an NHL job in Montreal.
Given his track record, he probably has a good chance of winning an NHL job. DeSmith finished this past season with a .905 save percentage, the lowest of his career, but he still saved 2.9 goals above expected. In simpler terms, he was a slightly above-league-average netminder.
That pretty much sums up DeSmith’s career, too. He’s either stopped a bit above or what’s expected of him in every NHL season and has a .912 SV% for his career. Over the last three seasons, he has a five-on-five SV% of .919, ranking him ahead of Sergei Bobrovsky, Adin Hill and Jacob Markstrom, to name a few.
What’s appealing about him is he’s entering the final year of his contract at a cap hit of $1.8 million. The Devils have just over $1.9 million in cap space, so they could probably find a way to make DeSmith work if he doesn’t earn a job with the Canadiens before the 2023-24 regular season begins.
Jake Allen
On the most recent episode of DFO Rundown, Frank Seravalli said if DeSmith beats out Primeau, that could make Allen expendable. Allen finished with an .891 SV% in 2022-23, but his underlying numbers weren’t terrible. He allowed 1.9 more goals than expected, so he came close to stopping what was expected of him.
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The issue with Allen is he has two years left on his contract at a cap hit of $3.85 million. The problem isn’t just the cap hit, but also his term. If the Devils don’t get someone like Hellebuyck or an elite goaltender, they don’t want a stop-gap that would block Schmid beyond the 2023-24 season. Vitek Vanecek has two years left on his deal, and with Allen having two years, that’s a problem.
The Canadiens would also have to retain 50 percent on the remainder of Allen’s contract, getting him down to nearly the same cap hit as DeSmith. Even then, there’s risk in taking on Allen because he might not provide the goaltending the Devils need as a 1B to Vanecek. They’d need to figure out a way to move him if it doesn’t work out, which could prove easier said than done.
Sam Montembeault
I would be shocked if the Canadiens moved on from Montembeault. They claimed him on waivers, and he turned into their best goaltender a season ago, stopping 11.2 goals above expected. But teams have made bad decisions before, and organizations making bad decisions won’t stop moving forward, so you never know.
Montembeault’s underlying numbers were solid this past season. He finished with a .916 SV% at five-on-five and saved 1.57 goals above average. He was in the bottom third in high-danger SV%, but at 26 years old, there’s reason to believe he could be a legit 1B based on his 2022-23 campaign.
Like DeSmith, the appeal of Montembeault is his contract, which has one year left on it at a cap hit of $1 million; he’ll be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Maybe the Canadiens see value in moving Montembault for assets since they’re rebuilding and could sell high on him, especially since he has such a terrific cap hit. I would throw this in the long-shot category, but if the Canadiens make him available, he would make sense for the Devils.
Primeau’s Status Will Have Final Say
The Canadiens may have a surplus of goaltenders, but much of it depends on what happens with Primeau. If he shows well in camp, it seems unlikely they’d want to risk losing him on waivers, meaning GM Kent Hughes would have a decision on his hands.
Primeau has struggled as a pro in the NHL but has performed well in the AHL, posting a .909 SV% in each of his three seasons with the Laval Rocket. He had a .936 SV% in the playoffs in 2021-22, and he turns 24 years old in just a few days. Some goalies don’t break out until their mid-20s, like Montembeault, and Primeau was the Canadiens’ top goaltending prospect for some time.
If the Canadiens decide to keep Primeau in the NHL, even in a three-goalie rotation, then one of Montembeault, DeSmith and Allen could get moved in a trade or placed on waivers. Betting odds are on Montembeault staying put, leaving one of Allen and DeSmith on the chopping block.
Allen would likely be more difficult to move since 1) he has two years left on his deal — even if the Canadiens retain — and 2) he hasn’t been as good as DeSmith over the last couple of years. With DeSmith having one year left on his deal at $1.8 million, the Canadiens probably wouldn’t have trouble finding a taker for him. And they’d likely get something decent in return, perhaps a third- or fourth-round pick. Considering they gave up nothing of value to acquire him, that’d be solid asset management.
That’s a good problem to have if you’re the Canadiens. They have at least three, maybe four goaltenders depending on Primeau’s development, that can contribute for them in the NHL. And they will likely have three, no matter what happens.
DeSmith makes the most sense for the Devils if Montembeault isn’t available. It’s not the upgrade they had hoped for at the start of the offseason. But if GM Tom Fitzgerald’s preference is to have Schmid start in the AHL (Seravalli mentioned this on the July 10 episode of DFO Rundown), DeSmith is the perfect option. He’s a league-average to slightly above-league-average netminder whose contract makes plenty of sense.
It may take some time for the Canadiens to figure out their goaltending situation. But it’s something Fitzgerald and Devils should be monitoring as it plays out over the coming weeks when training camp and the preseason begin.
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Advanced stats from Money Puck, Natural Stat Trick
