In his most recent press availability, New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald said that the Vegas Golden Knights capturing the Stanley Cup did not signal to him that he needs to drastically alter the way the Devils play. Instead, he focused on what aspects of team-building made the Golden Knights successful and how he can apply that to roster construction in New Jersey. He was impressed with how Vegas was able to create an impact with its depth saying, “Probably the biggest reason the Vegas Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup is because they probably have the best depth in the league. And that’s our goal is to build on our depth.” The first step to solidifying the Devils’ depth is making sure Michael McLeod is a part of the team.
When the Devils played their best this season they were getting strong contributions from their fourth line of McLeod, Nathan Bastian, and Miles Wood, better known as the BMW line. Fitzgerald was also quick to point out that similarly, Vegas’ “fourth line was extremely important to their success this year.” At 5-on-5, in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Golden Knights’ fourth line of Nicolas Roy, William Carrier, and Keegan Kolesar played to an almost 52 percent expected goals-for percentage (xG%). When your checking line creates more expected goals than it allows, success often follows. The Devils would be wise to follow Vegas’ lead and solidify their fourth line.
Regular Season Success
The BMW line only played together in 41 games largely due to injuries to Bastian. When healthy, the line was effective at even strength. They out-shot (143-131), out-scored (11-5), and dominated the high-danger chances (65-47) against opponents in just over 280 minutes of play. The numbers get starker when you remove Wood from the equation. When McLeod and Bastian played together at 5-on-5 they improved on the stats, albeit in a smaller sample size. The McLeod-Bastian duo played to a 42-26 advantage in shots, had a 62.5 Corsi For percentage (CF%), and a 72 percent xG%. With Wood likely to be jettisoned in free agency, the Devils can build a dominant fourth line by adding to the solid building blocks of McLeod and Bastian who are both currently restricted free agents (RFA).
The Devils likely can’t sign both McLeod and Bastian to large extensions. After the year Bastian had, they would be wise to focus on McLeod. Bastian spent much of the season trying to recover from a shoulder injury suffered against the Washington Capitals on Nov. 26. The injury initially kept the forward out of the lineup until Jan. 19. In all, he played in 43 games but was clearly limited as the season wound down. At the time of his injury, he was fourth among forwards in power play ice time.
Once he returned, Bastian’s power play time was curtailed totaling only 1:42 over his final 22 games. At 6-foot-4 and over 200 pounds, he is an imposing figure on the ice and is not afraid to use his body in all three zones. Despite the injury that nagged him all year, he was credited with 99 hits on the season. The Devils should extend a qualifying offer and then take the season to ensure he is fully healed and ascertain his value before deciding whether to make a commitment with term.
McLeod was a first-round pick in 2016 and entered the franchise with soaring expectations after averaging over a point-per-game in juniors. Over the course of his adapting to the NHL, the Devils twice received the first-overall pick in the NHL Draft and each time used it on centers (Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes). Seeing that his ascension to the top six was likely blocked, McLeod set out to remake his play and use his characteristic speed and toughness to become one of the premier fourth-line centers in the league.
McLeod has become a weapon for head coach Lindy Ruff in the faceoff dot finishing third in the NHL in faceoff win percentage (60.6%), just behind Jonathan Toews and Patrice Bergeron. His contributions expanded far beyond the fourth line and were noticed by his teammates. Linemate Bastian was impressed by McLeod’s play driving, “he drives the whole line, he demands the puck and he’s so strong on his skates he carries the puck up to the neutral zone and puts it in good spots… So obviously a massive part of our line, a huge part of our team.”
Similarly, Jack Hughes lights up when talking about McLeod, “he’s carved out a role for himself and a really important role… So he’s a guy that everyone in this locker room really respects because every night he brings it, he’s a complete gamer.” By the end of the season, he was firmly entrenched in the Devils’ lineup and penalty kill and had played a huge role in the record-setting improvement of the team. The next big test would come when the Devils faced the New York Rangers in the first playoff series of McLeod’s career.
McLeod Steps Up in First-Ever Playoff Series
As the playoffs began, the excitement around the young Devils was palpable. Fitzgerald had brought in several players with experience but for half the roster, including McLeod, this would be their first real foray into the playoffs. McLeod delivered. Often times he was the best player on the ice for the Devils against the Rangers. Playing as the fourth-line center for the majority of the series, he posted a 55 percent xGF% against the Rangers.
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McLeod was second amongst Devils forwards in hits (29) and was the leader amongst Devils forwards in blocks (12). The Devils’ ability to weaponize his faceoff skills was on full display in the playoffs. In Game 2, Ruff took a chance and inserted McLeod into the power play with the second unit to try to win the offensive zone faceoff. The tactic worked as the Devils retained possession which resulted in an Erik Haula go-ahead goal and an assist for McLeod. In the second round against the Carolina Hurricanes, in his more traditional penalty-killing role, he took a loose puck off of a defensive zone draw, broke out of the zone, and beat multiple Hurricanes defenders to tally a shorthanded goal. That was his second shorthanded goal of the playoffs (which led all skaters), his first coming as the game-winning goal in Game 7 against the Rangers.
McLeod scoring a critical goal was likely a surprise to any Devils fan watching the game, but having the skills to evade one of the top goaltenders in the world one-on-one did not come as a surprise to his teammates.
“Mikey McLeod has got quite the mitts on him, what poise and a great goal,” shared Haula in the dressing room after the game.
Jack Hughes recognized the importance of role players like McLeod if the team is to be successful in the postseason, “For Mikey to go out there and light it up, score for us, get the lead was huge. That’s what playoffs are right? You need your big dogs to be big dogs but you also need guys to chip in.”
Over the course of the 12 playoff games, McLeod did more than merely chip in, his combination of tenacity, speed, and defensive acumen brought him recognition and earned him an important place on the roster moving forward.
What is McLeod Worth to New Jersey?
McLeod is currently an RFA. His qualifying offer is an even $1 million and he has arbitration rights. His most recent contract, two years ago, was a bridge deal paying him $975,000 annually. It would behoove the Devils to lock him up long-term, as should he continue on the trajectory he has been on the last few years, his value and cost will continue to rise. He has proven that he fits well in the Devils’ system and has carved out a niche for himself in the faceoff dot as well as on the penalty kill. Championship teams need players like him, and it would be wise of the Devils to hold on to him rather than have to try and find a replacement of equal value from outside the organization.
The most common way to ascertain player value is through comparisons to similar players. Every team has a fourth-line center, but not every team has one with McLeod’s skills and value. This season, he put up a career-high 26 points in 80 games and followed that up with six points in 12 playoff games.
After reviewing the rosters of the better teams in the league, four players seem to be fair comparisons for McLeod: Nicolas Roy, Casey Cizikas, Morgan Geekie, and David Kampf. Like McLeod, each of the four anchored fourth lines on playoff teams, and each was relied on for faceoffs and penalty killing. They are all at different stages of their career so it is instructive to see how McLeod’s age and experience factor into his valuation.
- Nicolas Roy is a year older than McLeod (26) and is currently signed to a five-year $15 million contract when he was at the same contractual stage as McLeod. Roy finished this season with 30 points in 65 games and was a key part of the run by Vegas to the Cup but is under 50 percent in the faceoff dot.
- Casey Cizikas is in some ways the type of player New Jersey hopes McLeod becomes. He is 32 and on his second extension with the New York Islanders. He is currently paid $2.5 million annually. This past season in 81 games, he finished with 21 points. He is considered to be the anchor of one of the ideal fourth lines in hockey. The Devils would be happy with the production he gave the Islanders this year, which included 188 hits and 53.4% in the faceoff dot. Perhaps the better comparison is the contract he signed when he was the same age as McLeod which paid him $3.35 million on average over five seasons, however, that contract was signed when Cizikas was coming off of a 20-goal season, the only one of his career.
- Morgan Geekie was drafted a year later than McLeod (2017) and is also an RFA. He has a $1.4 million qualifying offer with arbitration rights. He put up 28 points in 69 games this season and also finished second on the team in faceoff percentage. With Shane Wright and Matty Beniers ahead of him, he finds himself in a similar situation to McLeod in that he needs to find a way to succeed in the bottom six if he wants to remain in Seattle.
- David Kampf played all 82 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs scoring 27 points. He is 28 years old and entering unrestricted free agency (UFA). He finished the season with 74 hits and a faceoff winning percentage of 51.5 percent. He is coming off a two-year contract that paid him an average of $1.5 million annually after being signed as a free agent. Like McLeod, he is credited with a lot of the defensive success the Toronto Maple Leafs had against top lines.
Qualifying McLeod at $1 million is a no-brainer for Fitzgerald, but it would likely lead to an arbitration filing. A two-year deal makes no sense for the club as it would walk him to UFA status. The most sensible move for both parties is to compromise on term and cost. AFP Analytics projects him signing a three-year contract with an average annual value of just above $1.9 million (for reference, their projection was about $500,000 lower than the final contract signed by Jesper Bratt). The Devils should look to buy two or three of McLeod’s UFA years along with the remaining RFA time and find a reasonable number somewhere between $2 and $3 million. If Roy is worth $3 million and Cizikas is worth $2.5 million, McLeod belongs in that neighborhood.
Fitzgerald could likely sell McLeod on leaving some money on the table in exchange for term. He was able to convince both Bratt and Jack Hughes to do the same. With the Devils poised to be Stanley Cup contenders for the foreseeable future, the opportunity to win with the guys he’s spent his entire career with may appeal to him. If the sides can agree on a four-year $10 million contract, it gives the Devils cost certainty at a reasonable number and would allow McLeod to test free agency at 29 years old with the opportunity, similar to Cizikas, to ink a second long-term deal. Should the Devils decide instead to head to arbitration they are risking McLeod having a career year like the one Cizikas had in his walk year which could end up costing them significantly more.
The deadline to qualify RFAs is June 30, so the Devils and McLeod should have news soon.
All advanced stats were taken from Natural Stat Trick
