While many fans got what they have been asking for with the team moving on from head coach Lindy Ruff, even the most ardent New Jersey Devils fan would be difficult to convince that much more than a sliver of hope remains in the quest to make it back to the playoffs. The Devils have had multiple chances since the All-Star Break to right the ship, and whenever there is a brief glimmer of hope, the door slams, extinguishing the light.
On Feb. 7, the Devils sat five points out of both the final wild card and Metropolitan Division playoff spots, with multiple games in hand on the teams ahead of them. With the return of Jack Hughes on the immediate horizon, the team was brimming with hope and confidence that a run to the playoffs was forthcoming. Since Hughes’ return a day later, they have gone 5-7-1 and now sit seven points shy of a playoff position with teams ahead of them. If the recent West Coast road trip showed anything, this is just not the Devils’ season and the sooner they can admit that and start the retool, the better. For several reasons, nothing worked this year, and the team has been unable to put together any positive streaks that would imbue confidence that they can make a historic run to the postseason; instead, the time to retool is nigh.
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It is no secret that the Devils have been searching for help on their blue line and in the net. The loss of Dougie Hamilton at the end of November has never been adequately addressed, and general manager Tom Fitzgerald has failed to upgrade his situation in goal since being embarrassed by a plucky but offensively challenged Carolina Hurricanes team in last season’s playoffs. Fitzgerald’s failure to take any steps to meaningfully mitigate the losses to injury and poor play of the goaltenders helped put New Jersey in a hole from which it could not extricate itself. Now, as the hours tick closer to the trade deadline, and just a year after New Jersey was the biggest buyer in the league, he has a decision to make regarding his expiring assets. The mistake would be to define the team as a buyer or seller; Fitzgerald should sell to accumulate the assets to allow him to finally buy what the team most needs, goaltending, and to be more challenging to play against.
Toffoli Is the Key
Tyler Toffoli has done everything the Devils asked of him since being acquired for fan-favorite Yegor Sharangovich and a third-round draft pick. He leads the team in goals and, early in the season, was the perfect foil for Hughes’ frenetic playmaking, especially on the power play. With his contract set to expire at the end of the season, the Devils have a difficult choice to make on the future of the 32-year-old winger. Auction him off to the highest bidder to accumulate assets to help them retool or hold him, hoping to make a miraculous run to the post-season and extend him. The movie-like ending of the latter is certainly attractive to a franchise once compared to Mickey Mouse. Still, suppose Fitzgerald fails to move Toffoli by the deadline. In that case, he will have not only lost his best chance to obtain substantial assets, he will have lost any leverage he has over Toffoli in future contract negotiations, as he will only be five weeks away from free agency where a bidding war could conceivably drive up his price exponentially.
The question then becomes, what return could the Devils reap from trading Toffoli? There are at least three bona fide trade partners with the assets and need for a scoring winger. Reports indicate that the Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, and Los Angeles Kings have interest. Three trades at last season’s deadline that included playoff hopefuls trading for pending free-agent veteran wingers are instructive. Two of the three deals, Vladimir Tarasenko to the New York Rangers and Tyler Bertuzzi to the Boston Bruins, returned a first-round draft pick plus additional assets. The third was for Max Domi, who was traded in a fire sale from the Chicago Blackhawks to the Dallas Stars. In that deal, the Blackhawks scored a second-round draft pick for Domi. Toffoli’s stats and experience as a Stanley Cup winner and finalist with two different teams and being on pace for his second straight 30-goal season make him more analogous to Tarasenko than the others, making him worthy of a first-rounder plus assets.
Fitzgerald must use the leverage at his disposal to gather assets for Toffoli. At 32 and likely looking for a deal with term in the range of $5 to 7 million, he is both too expensive and outside the timeline of contention for the Devils. The plan was to have Toffoli’s leadership join a dressing room full of emerging young stars and provide a steady, confident voice with a championship pedigree to help them advance deeper in the playoffs. He has held up his side of the bargain, but unfortunately for the Devils, the rest of the team has failed to meet expectations. The key to quickly retooling the team is getting a first-round draft pick and a good prospect for Toffoli. That acquisition should allow the Devils to fill their hole in goal without moving Dawson Mercer and possibly Alexander Holtz, as they would have multiple first-round picks to work with, including one potentially in the top ten.
One Chance to Retool on the Fly
There is no mistaking that this season was a monumental failure with plenty of blame to go around the Devils organization. Significant injuries piled up to star players, the players who escaped injuries underperformed, and lineup and tactical decisions were compounded by the failure of management to resupply a roster desperately in need of reinforcements. Fitzgerald has built up enough equity to deserve the opportunity to try to retool the team and get them back in the playoffs next season. He has lost the benefit of the doubt with his fanbase and, after spending a year seemingly winning every deal he made, has come under fire for his failure to act to staunch the bleeding of a season that quickly spun out of control.
The most important decision Fitzgerald faces is solving the goaltender problem. He was very close to acquiring Jacob Markstrom from the Calgary Flames at the beginning of February, but the deal fell through, and there seems to have not been a plan B. The Devils cannot go into next season with a question mark in the crease; there has to be stability and a proven commodity. Two of the last three seasons have been thwarted largely due to a failure to put up league-average stats in net, let alone harkening back to the glory days of Martin Brodeur. Quality goaltending will not come cheap, but they have tried the cheap route and failed miserably. Selling Toffoli for assets that can be packaged for the right netminder is the key to not only Fitzgerald’s future but also the chances of Hughes and Nico Hischier lifting the Cup in Newark.
There is no shortage of goaltenders out there to be had. Markstrom, Juuse Saros, John Gibson, Elvis Merzlikins, and Linus Ullmark are all in situations where younger goaltenders are pushing them or have fallen out of favor with their organizations. Each has consistently produced at a level foreign to the Devils since Brodeur left for St. Louis. Fitzgerald must prioritize and strike quickly on whoever is the best fit and ensure he does everything he can to surround that player with whatever he needs to succeed, including the correct backup, the right goalie coach, defensive defensemen, and any medical or training needs. The assets are there; this has to be the top priority.
Goaltending is not the only area of need. The Devils will have to find a way to become tougher to play against. The resiliency shown last season has waned this season as adversity mounted. Anaheim Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek, a former Devil, has been open to moving players and looking for draft capital and prospects in return. The perfect replacement for Toffoli would be a player like Frank Vatrano, who is three years younger, scores at a similar rate, and is under control at $3.6 million through next season. Unlike Toffoli, Vatrano also plays with an edge and would contribute to the penalty kill. The Devils could also tap the Ducks for a package including the Butcher, Radko Gudas. Like Vatrano, Gudas is under contract beyond this season and would provide the snarl sorely lacking from this season’s version of the Devils.
Fitzgerald may only have one chance left to fix what ails the Devils. He must address goaltending and add a veteran defensive presence who can play in all three zones. The only chance he has to acquire the assets necessary to make the fixes the team desperately needs is by trading Toffoli before Friday. Should they want to keep their window open another year and for the foreseeable future, the inflection point is now, and Fitzgerald must act decisively.
