On Day 2 of the NHL Draft, New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald said he would like to do something different on the wing. He also said he wants the Devils to have the best top-9 in the NHL this coming season. After letting Jesper Boqvist become an unrestricted free agent by not tendering him a qualifying offer, it seemed apparent that adding a different look to the team’s middle-six could be a possibility.
The free-agent frenzy from July 1 has died down for the most part, and the Devils smartly stayed away from handing out some of the terrible contracts teams gave out on Day 1. On the flip side, that means most of the quality wingers have found new homes. Are there any names left for Fitzgerald left to target? Let’s take a look at a few options.
Pius Suter
One of the better-remaining bottom-six forwards is Pius Suter, who spent the last two years with the Detroit Red Wings. He had a solid 2022-23 season, finishing with 14 goals and 24 points in 79 games. In his three seasons in the NHL, he’s averaged 33 points per 82 contests.
While Suter can contribute offensively, he’s been one of the more underrated defensive forwards in the game. He’s a good penalty killer and can play either the wing or center; with the Devils, he’d likely be a winger, given their depth down the middle. When looking at his overall defensive value since he came to the NHL in 2020, he ranks in the 96th percentile based on goals above replacement:
Evolving-Hockey projects Suter to land a two-year deal at a cap hit of $2.237 million, while AFP analytics (via Daily Faceoff) projects him at a cap hit of $1.85 million over two years. Even after re-signing Kevin Bahl, the Devils should have plenty of space to make either of those contracts work. Suter would provide some scoring — his underlying metrics suggest he may have more to give offensively — and would improve the Devils’ defense in their bottom six.
Waiver Claim for Zadina
In a bit of a surprise move yesterday, the Red Wings put former top-10 pick Filip Zadina on waivers. Roster spots became scarce after GM Steve Yzerman made multiple moves in free agency, and Zadina could be a casualty. He finished the 2022-23 season with just three goals and seven points in 30 games.
Even though Zadina hasn’t lived up to this draft slot, there’s a bit to suggest he could turn it around. And it’s not just because he’s still 23 years old. Though the scoring hasn’t been there, some of his underlying metrics are solid. His even-strength offense has ranked in the 82nd percentile in wins above replacement, and he draws plenty of penalties without taking many:
The issue with Zadina is his finishing. His shooting percentage is just 7.4 percent for his career, and it’s hard to say that’s an accident so far. He’d be a reclamation project for the Devils. But perhaps they think they can turn him around as the Colorado Avalanche did with Valeri Nichushkin, who found his scoring touch in Colorado after years of struggling with the Dallas Stars.
Zadina has decent size at 6-foot-0, 190 pounds, though I don’t think that matters much to Fitzgerald when adding forwards to the Devils’ lineup. The goal would be to have him play a top-9 role at some point, and it may not happen right away, but a change of scenery could do him well. He has two years left on his contract at a cap hit of $1.825 million, so the Devils can afford that, though the second year might give them pause. Waiver claims get announced at 12 P.M. every day, so hopefully, you’ll have read this before then.
Running It Back With Tatar
While Tomáš Tatar returning to the Devils seems unlikely, I wouldn’t rule it out. He had a fantastic 2022-23 season, totaling 20 goals and 48 points in 82 games. That might not seem overly impressive, but his five-on-five numbers were among the best in the NHL for all forwards, not just on the Devils.
Tatar finished the regular season with a 62.79 expected goals percentage (xG%), ranked first among all forwards in the NHL. That put him ahead of Matthew Tkachuk, Nico Hischier, and Mikael Backlund, some of the best two-way forwards in the league. When looking at his RAPM chart from Evolving-Hockey, he drove play at a well above-average level in 2022-23:
Tatar was the team’s fifth-most efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 1.96 points per 60 minutes. He has great chemistry with Hischier and can play anywhere in the top-nine. The one question with him is the playoff struggles. At this point in his career, it’s difficult to ignore and can’t be a coincidence. For whatever reason, he disappears in the playoffs.
Related: Devils Took Smart Approach on Day 1 of Free Agency
But postseason struggles aside, the Devils know what they’re getting with Tatar. I know Fitzgerald said he’d look to do something different on the wing. But if all else fails, running it back with Tatar on a short-term deal wouldn’t be the worst fallback option.
The Trade Market
The Devils have already made one trade for scoring, acquiring Tyler Toffoli from the Calgary Flames before the NHL Draft last week. Toffoli totaled 34 goals and 73 points in 82 games this past season and will be a big-time upgrade for the Devils’ top six. Fitzgerald could stop there and hope that someone like Alexander Holtz makes a significant impact next season. But what about looking to the trade market instead of free agency?
After acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets in a sign-and-trade and agreeing to an eight-year extension worth $8.5 million a year, the Los Angeles Kings are suddenly over the salary cap ceiling. It’s only by $751,677 with a roster of 22 players, but they will have to make some salary cap room before the season starts.
On the May 19 episode of 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman reported that Viktor Arvidsson could be available as a cap dump. That changed after the Kings moved Sean Walker and Cal Petersen to the Philadelphia Flyers in a trade, but their cap has since gotten tighter with the Dubois addition. Could that mean Arvidsson is in play again?
Like Toffoli, Arvidsson has one year left on his contract at a cap hit of $4.25 million. He had a productive 2022-23 season, finishing with 26 goals and 59 points in 77 games. It cost the Devils a third-round pick and Yegor Sharangovich to acquire Toffoli, so it could be even less to trade for Arvidsson since everyone knows the Kings don’t have much cap space.
The issue here is, can the Devils acquire Arvidsson without some salary retention? After re-signing Bahl, it would get tight. They would need the Kings to retain a decent portion, perhaps up to 50 percent, to give the Devils enough cap flexibility; that’d leave the Devils with around $1.6 million in cap space. The Kings would still shed salary, but not as much as they’d like, I’d assume. So the Devils would have to get creative with this one. That’s why it’s probably a long shot.
Give Holtz and Clarke Their Chance
If the Devils don’t find a winger the rest of the offseason, they could just let two of their better prospects, one being Holtz, get a crack at a roster spot when training camp rolls around in September. The other is Graeme Clarke, who had an impressive season in the AHL with the Utica Comets, totaling 64 points in 74 games between the regular season and playoffs.
Holtz was the seventh overall pick at the 2020 draft, and it’s getting close to make-or-break time in New Jersey. On the July 3 episode of 32 Thoughts, Friedman said the Devils have high hopes that Holtz can show them something next season. If they don’t make another external addition over the coming weeks, he’ll get every chance to earn a roster spot in September.
As for Clarke, he doesn’t have the draft pedigree of Holtz; he was a third-round selection in 2019. But there’s no denying he’s taken further steps in his development in the last year. He showed well during the preseason a year ago, and carried it over into the AHL season. If Holtz doesn’t have a good camp and preseason and Clarke outplays him, he could be on the opening-night roster.
With the Carolina Hurricanes loading up this offseason and potentially on the verge of signing Vladimir Tarasenko, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Fitzgerald add another winger before the season starts. As of now, these are some of their options. But if the trade winds decide to start blowing over the next few weeks, you never know what opportunity will present itself.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey
