The regular season is over, and playoff matchups are set for Round 1. After a historic season that saw the New Jersey Devils break a record for wins (52) and points (112), they’ll take on their Hudson River rivals, the New York Rangers, in the first round of the playoffs.
It’s the first time the two sides will meet in the postseason since the Eastern Conference Final in 2012 when the Devils defeated the Rangers in six games to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Plenty has changed between the two clubs since their last playoff matchup, but this showdown figures to be as riveting as when they met nearly 11 years ago.
The Devils had quite a bit of success against the Rangers during the regular season, finishing 3-0-1 in their four matchups. Usually, I don’t put much stock into regular-season series because they’re small samples where random events can influence the outcomes. But in this case, there’s reason to believe the Devils’ regular-season success against the Rangers can carry over into the playoffs. Let’s look at why they can exploit the Rangers on the rush with their speed.
Devils Feast Off the Rush
As far as a favorable matchup goes for the Devils, the Rangers aren’t quite it. Igor Shesterkin is an eraser, negating some advantages the Devils have. The Rangers also have a potent power play that could pose some problems. But as far as playing style, the Devils may be in luck versus the Rangers, given head coach Lindy Ruff’s system.
The Devils are one of the best, if not the best, rush teams in the NHL. Per Corey Sznajder’s data, they create the most shots off the rush offensively, and conversely, they give up the least defensively. Via the link in the previous sentence, the Devils fall in the “downhill skiing” category, meaning they feast on the rush.
The defensive aspect matters, but we’ll get to that later since the offensive part is where the Devils can exploit the Rangers. In the visual below, focus on two stats in the defensive section: odd-man rushes against per game and rush shots against per game. The Rangers rank 27th and 30th in those categories:
The Rangers’ defensive game improved some from a season ago, but their rush defense is something they struggled with each year. And there are a couple of examples of the Devils exploiting the Rangers off the rush during regular-season tilts in 2022-23.
One of the most notable was this goal Tomáš Tatar scored in a 5-3 win over the Rangers back on Nov. 28. Jesper Bratt retrieves the puck in the neutral zone and gets it to Nico Hischier, who gets going on the rush. Once he gains the offensive zone, he drops the puck back to Bratt, who makes a quick one-touch pass to Tatar:
Notice how the Rangers’ defense backs off quite a bit, allowing Hischier and company plenty of time and space to attack the offensive zone on the rush. The Devils’ ability to pick the Rangers apart via the rush was prevalent in a 2-1 win on March 31. Though the Devils didn’t score a rush goal in that game, they finished with a 61.29 Corsi for percentage (CF%) and 65.77 expected goals percentage (xG%) because the Rangers couldn’t deny possession zone entries. Most of their matchups tilted toward New Jersey at five-on-five this season for that reason, so perhaps that’s a sign of things to come.
Matchups Will Be Key
While the Devils excel on the rush offensively, they also defend it quite well. Per Sznajder’s data, they allow the fewest shots off the rush in the NHL. The Rangers are a good rush team, so how the Devils defend it will prove crucial in the series. Expect John Marino, one of the best rush defenders in the league, to play a significant factor.
Because the Devils are so effective at defending it, they should be able to neutralize the Rangers’ rush attack; it’s another factor why they controlled every game at five-on-five against New York this season. But how can the Devils continue to exploit the Rangers’ rush defense in the playoffs when the games get tighter and more physical defensively?
The answer is getting the right matchups on the ice to use their pace to combat the Rangers’ heavy, physical style. The key will be how Ruff decides to deploy Jack Hughes, New Jersey’s best player. Since the Devils will have home-ice advantage in Round 1, Ruff gets last change for the opening two games.
The best matchup for Hughes will likely be going against Jacob Trouba’s pair. Trouba has struggled to defend the rush, ranking in the seventh percentile in denying scoring chances on zone entries. He’s also had problems exiting the defensive zone cleanly. So if Hughes and Bratt, who’ll likely be linemates to start the series, gain the offensive zone on the rush against Trouba, there’s a chance they keep his defense pair hemmed in.
Another line that should have plenty of success against the Rangers is Tatar, Hischier and Dawson Mercer. They logged 267 minutes together in the regular season and posted a 65.59 xG%. Because Hischier is the Devils’ best two-way forward, he’ll log minutes against tough competition. But even if his line goes against the Ryan Lindgren and Adam Fox pair, Lindgren is vulnerable defending the rush. He ranks in the eighth percentile in entry denial and 38th percentile in possession entry prevention. So the Devils’ top six should be able to create off the rush against the Rangers’ top two defense pairs with the right matchups.
Meier on the Third Line Could Be an Advantage
The Devils didn’t add Timo Meier only to provide some physicality and heaviness to the lineup. They brought him in to be a difference-maker on the scoresheet as well. Meier finished the regular season with nine goals and 14 points in 21 games with the Devils after the trade deadline deal to New Jersey and had 40 goals and 65 points between the Devils and San Jose Sharks.
Related: Devils’ Meier Has Made a Mark Through 20 Games
What’s unique about Meier is he’s a power forward who does a bit of everything. One of his strengths is creating off the rush, and with him likely starting the series on the third line with Erik Haula and Jesper Boqvist, there’s a chance for him to do damage against some of the Rangers’ depth players. Meier going against the Niko Mikkola and Braden Schneider pairing could pose real problems for the Rangers and lead to the Devils doing further damage on the rush.
I have criticized Meier’s usage on the third line since the Devils acquired him, but this is where having him in such a role could have its advantages. It gives the Devils’ top nine a facilitator on each unit, which might give the Rangers matchup nightmares. How does Rangers head coach Gerard Gallant decide to defend against Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, and Meier being on different lines? It’s a tall task.
Devils Can Succeed Against a Heavy, Physical Team
If the Devils have the success they did in the regular season on the rush, they should be able to create enough quality chances to make things a challenge for Shesterkin. The Rangers have struggled to defend against it for two seasons, so their issues are what they are. But what about the Rangers’ physicality? Can’t that neutralize how the Devils want to play in the playoffs?
Small, less physical teams have had success in the postseason. Via The Athletic’s Heavy Score metric, the Colorado Avalanche just won a Stanley Cup being a small and average physical team. The Chicago Blackhawks won three being a small, passive team, while the Pittsburgh Penguins won two being a small, passive team (from ‘Revisiting the NHL’s ‘heavy hockey’ trend: What does it mean for the Stanley Cup playoffs?’ – The Athletic, 4/3/2023). It’s one clear advantage the Devils have, and they should be able to exploit the Rangers’ defense enough to give them a chance to win the series, just like they did during the regular season.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, all microstats data from Corey Sznajder and JFresh Hockey
