When the New Jersey Devils acquired Tyler Toffoli from the Calgary Flames a couple of days before the draft in late June, it was the exact type of scoring boost they needed. They’ll likely have one of the best top-six forward groups in the NHL this season, but general manager Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t want to stop there. He wants to have the best top-nine in the league:
As constructed, the Devils have an opening for a wing position somewhere in their top-nine. That spot will likely be left for Alexander Holtz or Graeme Clarke to battle it out during training camp in September. But Fitzgerald shouldn’t just yet rule out a possible reunion with Tomáš Tatar for the 2023-24 season.
Pros to Re-Signing Tatar
The Devils signed Tatar as an unrestricted free agent in August 2021, hoping he would help provide a scoring upgrade and lead the team to the playoffs the following season. Not only did the Devils bottom out in 2021-22, but Tatar struggled in his first year in New Jersey, totaling 15 goals and 30 points in 76 games. That was well below what everyone was expecting of him based on his play in Montreal with the Canadiens.
Sometimes, it takes a bit to adjust to a new team. The Devils play a different system under coach Lindy Ruff than just about any team in the league, and it appears Tatar needed that time to adjust to his new club. He had quite the rebound year in 2022-23, finishing with 20 goals and 48 points in 82 games.
It wasn’t just the counting totals where Tatar bounced back, though. His underlying numbers were among the best in the league for forwards. He finished with a 62.79 expected goals percentage (xG%), ranked first among forwards with 1000 minutes logged at five-on-five, placing him ahead of Matthew Tkachuk and teammates Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt.
Like during his time with the Canadiens, Tatar showed high-end play-driving ability because he does plenty of the little things well that you don’t always see on the scoresheet. The difference is this past season, it showed up in the box score, unlike in 2021-22. Not only did Tatar produce offensively, but he’s also a highly underrated two-way forward.
Wingers usually don’t get love in the Selke Trophy conversation because…who knows why. But Tatar was one of the best defensive forwards in the league this season. When looking at Dom Luszczyszyn’s Game Score Value Added metric at The Athletic, Tatar’s defensive value ranked in the 99th percentile:
Perhaps part of the reason for that is because Tatar spent plenty of time alongside Hischier this past season, but they’ve had chemistry since the Devils signed Tatar. That’s one of the pros to bringing back Tatar, too. He and Hischier have a 61.07 xG% together over the last two seasons and have controlled over 60 percent of the grade-B chances and 62 percent of the grade-A opportunities.
Of course, Toffoli will replace what the Devils lose in Tatar, but depth is key. If Fitzgerald wants to have one of the best top-nines in the NHL, bringing back Tatar gives them a better chance of accomplishing that since he can play anywhere in the top-nine.
Cons to Re-Signing Tatar
The Devils will want Holtz to compete for a roster spot this coming season; Elliotte Friedman said as much on the final 32 Thoughts podcast of the season. The 21-year-old was the seventh overall pick in 2020 and has produced at every level he’s played in but the NHL to this point of his career. It’s not a make-or-break year for him with the Devils, but he needs to show something with the team this season.
Related: Devils’ Offense Will Be More Lethal With Tyler Toffoli
By bringing back Tatar, it’d effectively take a spot away from Holtz in the top-nine to start the 2023-24 season. That isn’t necessarily the worst thing since Holtz is waivers exempt and can go to Utica and get big minutes with the Comets to start the new season. That could be best for him if there isn’t a proper role in the top-nine.
Holtz needs to play with scorers to be effective, and if the Devils don’t think there’s a scoring role for him to start the season, then having Tatar in the lineup makes sense since he can play anywhere on the top three lines. They can always call up Holtz if he goes to the AHL and lights it up with the Comets.
The other elephant in the room is Tatar’s playoff performances. At this point in his career, it’s hard to ignore that he disappears in the postseason. That was the case again this past spring, as he had just one goal and no assists in 12 postseason games. Granted, it was a big goal that gave the Devils a 2-0 lead in Game 7 against the New York Rangers, but there needs to be more from him than one goal in 12 playoff appearances.
Those are important things to weigh for Fitzgerald if he decides to re-sign Tatar for the upcoming season. Sure, he’ll likely give the Devils one of the best top-nines in the NHL during the regular season. But his playoff performances are his playoff performances, and if Holtz breaks out, could the Devils’ top-nine have more upside with him instead of Tatar? But before all that, the Devils have to settle their situation in net.
Clarity on Goaltending Needed First
In the previously cited 32 Thoughts episode, Friedman mentioned people around the league are wondering what the Devils will do in net. Will they run it back with Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid? Or will they acquire someone like Connor Hellebuyck since there appears to be mutual interest between the two sides?
The reason that the Devils’ goaltending situation determines whether they can bring back Tatar or not is for cap reasons. They have $4,832,500 in cap space after signing Chris Tierney as a free agent, though it’s not a guarantee that he’ll begin the season with the Devils. They also still have to re-sign restricted free agent Kevin Bahl. He shouldn’t cost much to re-up, but that could be another $950,000 to $1 million on the books. If Fitzgerald wants to add a goalie, he will need as much cap space as possible.
But if the Devils run it back with Vanecek and Schmid, there should be room to bring back Tatar on a one-year deal. Evolving-Hockey has him projected for a cap hit of $2.049 million on a one-year contract. If they re-sign Bahl to a cap hit of $950,000, they would have $1.8 million in cap space entering the 2023-24 season. That gives them enough flexibility for roster moves they’d have to make throughout the season and should leave money available for the trade deadline as they accrue cap space throughout the year.
Playoff struggles aside, Tatar would help the Devils have one of the best top-nines in the NHL, which they will need to compete for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division with a stacked Carolina Hurricanes team. Ultimately, I’d guess the Devils will find a solution in net before the offseason concludes and give Holtz that open spot on the wing instead. But a reunion with Tatar shouldn’t be off the table just yet, especially if they run it back with Schmid and Vanecek.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
