Did the Maple Leafs Upgrade by Choosing Tanev Over Brodie? - The Hockey Writers - Toronto Maple Leafs

The consensus this offseason was that the Toronto Maple Leafs had completely revamped their defence. But did they really?

If we compare the Maple Leafs’ starting defence from October 2023 to the players they have signed now, we see that Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe, Timothy Liljegren, and Conor Timmins are all returning. John Klingberg was on the roster, and Simon Benoit started the season with the American Hockey League (AHL) Toronto Marlies.

When Klingberg was injured, Benoit replaced him. TJ Brodie and Mark Giordano are the only two defencemen on the roster at the beginning of the 2023-24 season who are not on the present roster.

The present roster shows Rielly, McCabe, Liljegren, Timmins, and Benoit, along with additions Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Jani Hakanpaa. (Note: The 2023-24 roster had seven defencemen. The present roster shows eight).

Conor Timmins Toronto Maple Leafs — Conor Timmins, Toronto Maple Leafs (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

Let’s consider Timmins, the seventh player from last season’s roster, and Hakanpaa as the extra two players on the present roster. The changes come down to Tanev replacing Brodie and Ekman-Larsson replacing Giordano in the top six.

Comparing Defencemen Chris Tanev and TJ Brodie

That leads to two questions. Question number one is whether replacing two defencemen should be considered a major revamp. Question two is whether replacing Brodie and Giordano with Tanev and Ekman-Larsson would significantly improve the Maple Leafs’ defence.

Because the most significant swap is Brodie for Tanev, our goal today is to compare the two players and, more specifically, how they performed in the 2023-24 season. That should offer some insight into what we might expect for the coming season. We want to note that both players are 34 years old, so there is no age advantage or disadvantage for either player.

We see the following if we look at their “Old School” numbers for the regular season.

Player	GP	TOI	Goals	Assists	Points	Plus/Minus	Hits	Blocks	DZS
Brodie	78	21:43	1	25	26	Plus-17	41	159	51.2%
Tanev	75	19:41	2	17	19	Plus-22	45	207	59.1%

Brodie played three more games than Tanev and averaged 2:02 more ice time per game. Neither player was a threat to score themselves. Tanev had two goals, while Brodie had just one. Brodie did have eight more assists than Tanev and seven more points. But Brodie did play for a more offensively potent team in the Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs scored 50 more goals than the Calgary Flames, the team Tanev played the most for.

It would make sense that Brodie would have more assists and points for that reason alone. Despite the more significant offensive numbers by Brodie, Tanev was plus-22 in plus/minus rating to Brodie’s plus-17. If we jump to the last category, Defensive Zone Starts (DZS), we see that Tanev started almost six of every ten shifts in the defensive zone while Brodie was about a 50/50 split in zone starts.

Neither player was a physical threat. Tanev had 45 hits to Brodie’s 41.

The most significant difference comes in blocked shots. Tanev had 48 more blocked shots than Brodie (207-159), which is 30% more. The difference is more significant if we factor in the fewer games and minutes per game that Tanev played. Tanev had 8.41 blocked shots per 60 minutes played to Brodie’s 5.63. That difference is 2.78 blocked shots per 60 minutes played, or 49%.

Comparing Tanev’s vs. Brodie’s Analytics: Offence & Defence

We see the following if we compare their five-on-five analytics for on-ice offence. [Here are the full names for the hockey analytics abbreviations: GF: Goals For; Per60: Per 60 minutes of play; xGF: Expected Goals For; SCF: Scoring Chances For; and, HDSCF: High Danger Scoring Chances For.]

Player	Min	GF	Per60	xGF	Per60	SCF	Per60	HDSCF	Per60
Brodie	1422.9	70	2.95	64	2.70	662	27.9	283	11.9
Tanev	1231.4	55	2.68	54	2.62	584	28.5	207	10.1

These numbers reflect the “Old School” numbers for the offence. Brodie was better than Tanev in every category except Scoring Chances For, where Tanev had a slightly better per-60 stat of 28.5 to Brodie’s 27.9. But again, we have to remember that the Maple Leafs were the superior team offensively. Additionally, Brodie had almost 10% more starts in the offensive zone than Tanev. While Brodie was better overall, his numbers were not significantly better.

Now, let’s compare the five-on-five defensive numbers. [Here are the full names for those hockey analytics abbreviations: GA: Goals Against; Per60: Per 60 minutes of play; xGA: Expected Goals Against; SCA: Scoring Chances Against; and, HDSCA: High Danger Scoring Chances Against]

Player	Min	GA	Per60	xGA	Per60	SCA	Per60	HDSCA	Per60
Brodie	1422.9	64	2.70	65.7	2.77	682	28.8	293	12.4
Tanev	1231.4	46	2.24	45.3	2.21	527	25.7	198	9.6

This is where we see the most significant difference. Tanev is half a goal better defensively per 60 minutes in both Actual and Expected Goals Against. Their Scoring Chances Against are fairly even, but Brodie gave up almost three full High-Danger Chances against per 60 than Tanev did. Tanev posted those superior numbers playing for a team that was slightly worse in goals against (Flames 271, Maple Leafs 263).

Comparing Tanev vs. Brodie During the Postseason

If we consider playoff performance, it’s not even remotely close. Tanev was dealt to the Dallas Stars at the trade deadline and played 19 games for the Stars in the postseason. After the Maple Leafs picked up Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lyubushkin at the deadline, Brodie went from being a 21-plus minute player in the regular season to being a healthy scratch in six of the seven games the Maple Leafs played in the playoffs.

Tanev saw his ice time grow from 19:41 per game in the regular season to 22:19 in the postseason. He was the Stars’ No. 1 shutdown defenceman and played against the opposition’s top line throughout the postseason. In the one game Brodie played, he was relegated to just 17:10 of ice time in an overtime game. Tanev ended plus-7 in plus/minus over his 19 games, while Brodie was on for zero goals and two goals against at five-on-five.

The Bottom Line Comparison Between Tanev and Brodie

Based on their play last season and how their seasons ended, there is no comparison between where Tanev is with his game and where Brodie is with his. At one time in their careers, Tanev and Brodie were comparable players. Tanev was the Vancouver Canucks best defensive defenceman; and, for his first two seasons with the Maple Leafs, Brodie was Toronto’s best all-around defenceman. That is no longer the case. Tanev’s game has grown while Brodie’s has fallen off a cliff.

One other factor in all of this is Rielly. The key to getting the most out of Rielly has been his partner. When Rielly has played with a partner he can trust to handle the defensive end of the game; it has allowed him to play to his offensive strengths. He had that in Ron Hainsey, even though the aging Hainsey was not regarded as a top-four defenceman in his time with the Maple Leafs.

When Brodie was first with the Maple Leafs, he was great for Rielly. The two of them played upwards of 25 minutes a game at times. Over the last two seasons, as Brodie’s game has regressed, so has Rielly’s effectiveness. He had a great playoff in 2023, playing alongside Lyubushkin. However, the two could not duplicate that success in 2024. If Tanev can maintain his level of play from the 2023-24 season and the playoffs, Rielly might have that ideal partner the Maple Leafs have been looking for.

The Maple Leafs look like a much better team with Tanev than they were with Brodie. We will have to see how it plays out on the ice. However, it’s tough to see that Tanev is anything but an upgrade on Brodie.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]