In this two-part series looking at the Edmonton Oilers’ potential opening night roster, Part Two assesses the forwards and what lines the club could run out of the gate. If you haven’t read Part One, in which we took a deep dive into the goaltending and defense pairings, you can do so here.
To catch everyone up to speed, here’s what the Oilers’ goaltending and the defense could be heading into October:
|
Goaltenders |
| Cam Talbot |
| Mikko Koskinen |
|
Left Defense |
Right Defense |
| Oscar Klefbom | Adam Larsson |
| Darnell Nurse | Matt Benning |
| Kris Russell | Evan Bouchard |
| Jakub Jerabek* |
Now onto the forwards.
Oilers’ Best Lines: Corsi-For Percentage (CF%)
If you incorporate advanced stats into finding the best possible lines for the Oilers’ upcoming season, some of the results will surprise you. To consider the Corsi-For percentage, you have to filter out the players that are no longer with the club. Patrick Maroon, Mike Cammalleri, and Mark Letestu factored into some of Edmonton’s more positive CF% lines in 2017-18.
Related: A Make or Break Year for Oilers, Chiarelli, and McLellan
Maroon was on the three top performing lines according to this stat last season (64.6, 57.1, and 56.6) while playing with Connor McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl, Cammalleri, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. When you subtract Maroon, Cammalleri, Letestu, and Iiro Pakarinen, you’re left with nine different line variations used in 2017-18.
| Oilers’ Best Lines According to Corsi For Percentage (CF%) | ||||
| CF% | GP | Left Wing | Center | Right Wing |
| 55.4 | 30 | Milan Lucic | Connor McDavid | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| 55.3 | 40 | Milan Lucic | Connor McDavid | Leon Draisaitl |
| 53.0 | 21 | Jujhar Khaira | Leon Draisaitl | Ryan Strome |
| 52.8 | 26 | Milan Lucic | Ryan Strome | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| 52.6 | 13 | Drake Caggiula | Leon Draisaitl | Ryan Strome |
| 51.7 | 14 | Milan Lucic | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Ryan Strome |
| 50.1 | 10 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Connor McDavid | Ty Rattie |
| 48.1 | 16 | Milan Lucic | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| 47.3 | 7 | Drake Caggiula | Leon Draisaitl | Pontus Aberg |
According to the above, the Oilers’ best line that remains from last year is Milan Lucic, McDavid, and Jesse Puljujarvi. If you play those three together, Jujhar Khaira, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Strome become the next best line. Most fans will groan when they see Lucic’s name next to McDavid’s, and they should take it with a grain of salt.
Related: Predicting Oilers 2018-19 Opening Night Roster: Goalies & Defense
While Lucic has struggled to keep up with the Oilers captain’s speed, he did have his best stint of the season alongside No. 97. Then again, is anyone genuinely hoping the Oilers ice a second line that includes both Khaira and Strome? Highly unlikely. So what other stats can we use to find the best performing lines for Edmonton this upcoming season?
Oilers’ Best Lines: PDO
We can take those same nine line combinations and run them through the PDO marker. Comparing the two stats we know that the Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, and Rattie trio (CF% of 50.1) that clicked during the final stretch of the season likely overachieved (109.3), and that type of success might not be sustainable over a full 82-game schedule.
Related: 5 Predictions for Oilers 2018-19 Season
The best CF% line of Lucic, McDavid, and Puljujarvi held a PDO of 103.2, which is slightly above the curve and they likely benefitted from some bounces that went their way as well. On the flip side, Lucic, McDavid, and Draisaitl (CF% of 55.3, PDO of 94.3) might’ve been the most snakebitten line the Oilers iced in 2017-18. The trio’s possession stats were great but they didn’t get the bounces.
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Oilers’ Best Lines According to PDO |
||||
| PDO | GP | Left Wing | Center |
Right Wing |
| 109.3 | 10 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Connor McDavid | Ty Rattie |
| 103.2 | 30 | Milan Lucic | Connor McDavid | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| 102.5 | 7 | Drake Caggiula | Leon Draisaitl | Pontus Aberg |
| 101.2 | 16 | Milan Lucic | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| 100.2 | 13 | Drake Caggiula | Leon Draisaitl | Ryan Strome |
| 100.5 | 21 | Jujhar Khaira | Leon Draisaitl | Ryan Strome |
| 99.8 | 26 | Milan Lucic | Ryan Strome | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| 96.1 | 14 | Milan Lucic | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Ryan Strome |
| 94.3 | 40 | Milan Lucic | Connor McDavid | Leon Draisaitl |
Drake Caggiula, Draisaitl, and Pontus Aberg float close to that boundary (PDO of 100.2), and again the Khaira, Draisaitl, Strome line looks like it’s right where it’s supposed to be as well (100.5). Another takeaway is the number of combinations in which Lucic appears. He played on five different line combinations through the year while the club tried to spark him through his second-half scoring drought.
We also need to consider one player that’s on the bubble who might factor into the club’s opening night plans: Kailer Yamamoto. He started last season with McDavid and Maroon and the trio had a CF% of 57.8, and a PDO of 94.5. So there’s plenty of combinations, but as we’re starting to go through this exercise, maybe we need to apply some reality to this. We know who the Oilers’ four centers will be but who are the best wingers for those centers?
Oilers Best Lines: The Eye Test
Analytics are nice to consider but the best test is the eye test. If you’ve read my writing over the past few years, you’ll know I’m not much of a numbers guy. I’m not throwing the numbers away but I won’t let them dictate how I’d construct the Oilers’ roster for the upcoming season.
Related: 5 Oilers Prospects To Watch in 2018-19
The building blocks (as mentioned above) are set down the middle: McDavid, Draisaitl, Strome, Brodziak. You can substitute Draisaitl for Nugent-Hopkins when needed but for now, let’s start Nugent-Hopkins on the wing which is where he ended the 2017-18 campaign. We’ll also pencil Nugent-Hopkins into the top left side spot next to McDavid to start this exercise and build the rest of the roster around this. We’ll do the same with Zack Kassian, who’s the No. 4 right winger.
|
Building the Oilers 2018-19 Forward Lineup |
||
| Left Wing | Center | Right Wing |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Connor McDavid | ??? |
| ??? | Leon Draisaitl | ??? |
| ??? | Ryan Strome | ??? |
| ??? | Kyle Brodziak | Zack Kassian |
We’re essentially looking at six spots in the lineup that are up for grabs. We also need to add free-agent signee Tobias Rieder, as well as Scottie Upshall, who’s on a professional tryout (PTO). Rieder, 25, is a nice addition to the Oilers because of his ability to play top-nine minutes at five-on-five (5-on-5). Looking at Rieder’s usage last year, he played 33 games (nearly 228 minutes at 5-on-5) alongside Derek Stepan.
He also played 10 games (over 72 minutes at 5-on5) alongside Jeff Carter with the Los Angeles Kings. His style as a two-way forward with limited scoring upside complimented both Stepan and Carter. Rieder scored 12 goals and 25 points in what was considered a down year. If you’re hoping for Rieder to go back to being the 34-37-point player he was in the two previous years, you’ll want him alongside a reliable scoring center.
Tobias Rieder & Leon Draisaitl: A Second-Line Match?
Draisaitl might be the one to unlock that scoring potential and he’s closer than anyone else in the system to the type of player Rieder played with last year. Rieder also has excellent breakaway speed, can play at different speeds, and does a great job of finding time and space. Put that together, and we have a dependable low-key addition that could complement Draisaitl’s game.
Draisaitl likes to slow things down when he enters the offensive zone and he sees the ice well. Rieder’s abilities to think the game are right up there, and the two built some chemistry playing together in international competitions. Maybe there’s a fit here to explore with a player that plays both wings.
Aside from playing alongside McDavid for stretches of the 2016-17 and 2017-18 season, Draisaitl and Lucic haven’t played a lot of games together with No. 29 at centre. The Oilers want a player with a $6 million price tag to deliver results so they should give Lucic a chance to redeem himself after a challenging campaign.
If the goal is to utilize Lucic in a top-six role, it shouldn’t be alongside McDavid and it should be with Draisaitl. Ideally, Lucic’s purpose on this line would be to win puck battles and create space and opportunities for Draisaitl and his other linemate. He might not be able to keep up with McDavid which limits his overall ability to produce, however, with Draisaitl, who plays the game at varying speeds, there’s an opportunity worth exploring.
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Building the Oilers 2018-19 Forward Lineup (Continued) |
||
| Left Wing | Center | Right Wing |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Connor McDavid | ??? |
| Milan Lucic | Leon Draisaitl | Tobias Rieder |
| ??? | Ryan Strome | ??? |
| ??? | Kyle Brodziak | Zack Kassian |
The possession stats aren’t terrible either. Lucic with Draisaitl isn’t as bad of an idea as it sounds. There are four spots to fill with Aberg, Caggiula, Khaira, Puljujarvi, Rattie, Upshall, and Yamamoto in the mix.
Oilers First-Line & A Balanced Lineup
Rattie is a bit of an unproven commodity despite having a strong 2017-18 season overall. The 25-year-old was excellent in the AHL (43 points in 53 games) and has an excellent scoring touch at all levels, except the NHL. His nine points in 14 games were the best stretch of his career since being drafted 32nd overall in 2011. He was a scoring sensation in junior with the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks but his glory days are over.
The NHL focuses on ‘what have you done for me lately?’ Rattie has turned a corner as a player. It’s likely that Chiarelli and McLellan will do everything in their power to set Rattie up for success by giving him the opportunity in training camp to cement his place as the No. 1 right winger at 5v5.
That means that at 5-on-5 the club is left to decide between Puljujarvi and Yamamoto for that No. 3 right wing spot. It’s easy to go with Puljujarvi, who is due for a breakout year in 2018-19. With some increased power-play time, the fourth overall pick from 2016 could score 20-plus goals this season. For Yamamoto, a glorious developmental opportunity awaits with the Bakersfield Condors where he can play top-line minutes in all situations.
Related: Edmonton Oilers Top 10 Prospects
Testing Yamamoto against the AHL’s top competition and defense pairings would, ideally, yield the Oilers a more NHL-ready pro when he’s recalled. Khaira is by far the Oilers’ best checker and will be able to transition into the top-nine in due time. Having him alongside Brodziak and Kassian gives Edmonton one of the better fourth lines in the NHL.
| Left Wing | Center | Right Wing |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Connor McDavid | Ty Rattie |
| Milan Lucic | Leon Draisaitl | Tobias Rieder |
| Drake Caggiula | Ryan Strome | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| Jujhar Khaira | Kyle Brodziak | Zack Kassian |
| Pontus Aberg* | Scottie Upshall* |
In a roundabout way, that leaves one spot on the roster to decide; the No. 3 left wing. That spot comes down to Aberg, Caggiula, and Upshall. Aberg was quickly in the doghouse after coming over in a trade with the Nashville Predators and will hopefully get a clean slate when camp opens. Caggiula just got a $1.5 million-per-year extension. Upshall is at camp on a PTO.
As camp opens, Aberg is likely on the outside as the club’s 13th forward. Then again, Upshall has been an adept penalty-killer and was one of the St. Louis Blues’ most utilized penalty killers last season alongside Kyle Brodziak. With the Oilers looking to improve their PK, it’s worth keeping Upshall around.
Final Oilers Opening Night Roster: Review
When the season starts, we’ll review this lineup prediction and see how it compares to the Oilers’ lineup for the first game of the season. With two goaltenders and seven defenders, they need 14 forwards to complete their 23-man roster.
This is my prediction of who the Oilers will ice on opening night:
|
Goaltenders |
| Cam Talbot |
| Mikko Koskinen |
|
Left Defense |
Right Defense |
| Oscar Klefbom | Adam Larsson |
| Darnell Nurse | Matt Benning |
| Kris Russell | Evan Bouchard |
| Jakub Jerabek* |
| Left Wing | Center | Right Wing |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Connor McDavid | Ty Rattie |
| Milan Lucic | Leon Draisaitl | Tobias Rieder |
| Drake Caggiula | Ryan Strome | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| Jujhar Khaira | Kyle Brodziak | Zack Kassian |
| Pontus Aberg* | Scottie Upshall* |
Do you agree with this roster? Are there any changes you’d make? Who would you plug in and plug out? Let us know in the comment section below.