Emil Bemstrom Trade Showed Blue Jackets Overvalued Prospects

John Davidson and the Columbus Blue Jackets got a jump start on the NHL Trade Deadline. They completed a trade with a team that had a game in progress.

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The Blue Jackets traded Emil Bemstrom to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday night while they were playing their game against the Montreal Canadiens. In exchange for Bemstrom, the Blue Jackets got Alex Nylander and a conditional sixth-round pick in 2026. According to Aaron Portzline of the Athletic, the sixth rounder will become a third rounder if Bemstrom scores six goals between now and the end of the season.

Bemstrom is expected to make his Penguins debut Sunday afternoon against the Philadelphia Flyers. He could see some power play time in the game as he skated on the second unit in practice.

Bemstrom’s End Was Inevitable

After spending parts of five seasons with the Blue Jackets, there was a growing sense that Bemstrom’s time in Columbus was coming to an end. Although he was given several chances to prove himself, he could never do it on a consistent basis.

In all, Bemstrom played 204 games for the Blue Jackets. He recorded a line of 31-38-69 in that time. He also appeared in five playoff games but didn’t record any points.

Of note, Bemstrom never appeared in more than 56 games in a season. His most productive offensive season came in his first year of 2019-20 where he scored 10 goals. Of those 10 goals, four were game winners. He also scored his only overtime goal to date in that season.

In 2022-23, Bemstrom recorded his best assist season with 15 in 55 games. However, he has never averaged more than 13 minutes TOI in a full season in his career. While he occasionally saw some top-six time, he was mostly a bottom-six fixture.

Emil Bemstrom Columbus Blue Jackets
Emil Bemstrom became a bottom-six fixture for the Blue Jackets. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

To say this was a frustrating time for Bemstrom and the Blue Jackets is an understatement. He was immediately known for his ability to shoot the puck. Although he was a mid-round pick, the thought was he could be someone who could outperform his draft position and become an important contributor.

There’s no question Bemstrom showed flashes of potential at times. But there’s also no question he couldn’t do it consistent enough night in and night out.

On many nights, Bemstrom would get scoring chances. Then either the puck would bounce away or he’d miss the net. Had he showed a more consistent ability to finish, his career numbers would look better.

That inconsistently eventually led to Bemstrom being placed on waivers. Because he cleared waivers, the Blue Jackets assigned him to the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. He immediately found success there.

Bemstrom scored a total of 45 points in 29 AHL games between this season and last. This included 10 goals in eight games played in 2023-24. It’s a classic case of a player being skilled enough to dominate in the AHL but not quite being able to piece it all together in the NHL.

There is no question that Bemstrom has skill and potential. His shot is NHL legit. He once scored a natural hat trick against Nashville’s Juuse Saros. But it has been clear for some time that a fresh start was needed.

Bemstrom signed a two-year extension in August 2022. Then GM Jarmo Kekalainen said that Bemstrom could be an important part of the franchise in the coming seasons. Less than two years after this signing, both player and GM are gone. This points to the bigger story of the last few seasons.

Overvaluing Prospects

On one hand, getting over 200 NHL games from a fourth rounder is a good thing. Bemstrom was drafted 117th overall in the 2017 NHL Draft. But on the other hand, the circumstances around the Blue Jackets especially leading up and beyond the 2018-19 season put a lot of pressure on some of their key young players.

Let’s reset that scene. The 2019 NHL Trade Deadline was one to remember for the Blue Jackets. Instead of selling, they went all-in and acquired the likes of Matt Duchene for their playoff run. While it yielded a historic result for one round, many skeptics believed this was a mistake in the long run.

Kekalainen wanted to give his team a chance to play meaningful games knowing that the Blue Jackets would lose Duchene, Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin after the season. The Bruins eventually dealt the knockout punch. The top players left town. But Kekalainen at the time was still confident the Blue Jackets would be ok.

Jarmo Kekalainen Columbus Blue Jackets
Jarmo Kekäläinen was confident players like Bemstrom, Foudy and Texier would become impact players. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Why? That’s because of the likes of players like Bemstrom, Alex Texier and Liam Foudy. The Blue Jackets made Texier their first pick of the 2017 NHL Draft after a trade. They then took Foudy in the first round of the 2018 NHL Draft. In both cases, the team felt they got legit first-round talent.

Foudy had a big moment in the Toronto bubble when he scored in that deciding Game 5 against the Toronto Maple Leafs. It led then coach John Tortorella to say that Foudy “had balls the size of the building.”

But that hype never materialized. The players the Blue Jackets depended on to take huge steps didn’t happen. It’s reasonable to believe that most experts and fans were right about this outcome. This was a case where the GM’s belief in the player was higher than what they actually became. That’s a recipe for failure.

Foudy was waived by the Blue Jackets earlier this season and is now in the Nashville Predators organization. He scored seven goals in 90 career games for the team. All seven goals came in 2022-23 when he played in 62 games. That was the season the Blue Jackets amassed over 500 man-games lost to injury. He was never able to consistently break into the top-12.

As for Texier, he did miss time as he was back in Europe during the 2022-23 season. While he’s on pace for career highs in 2023-24, he’s still trying to consistently figure things out. He has 30 goals in 177 games played. To his credit, he has become one of their go-to players on defense and the penalty kill.

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There were some who believed Texier was a top-six player. While it’s possible that could still happen, he hasn’t shown it yet. He’s been mostly a staple on the bottom-six. Having your first picks of drafts become bottom-six staples will put a halt to any progress on your team.

Kekalainen believed these players would be impact players. That never materialized. Two of the three players in Bemstrom and Foudy are off the team and Texier will become an RFA with arbitration rights after the season. We’ll see what happens with Texier over time.

Meanwhile part of the reason the Blue Jackets are where they are is because they overvalued their prospects at the time they went all-in at the trade deadline. Kekalainen said it himself. He believed in these players. They were going to help offset some of their losses. While it’s natural for a general manager to believe in his players, many were skeptical of this belief and were proven correct.

New GM Tasked With Building From Foundation

As we’ve said before, the drafting has been much better in recent years. But the fruits of that won’t be seen for years to come. Kekalainen’s time ran out before realizing what the 2020-2023 draft class would become.

Whoever the new GM is, they will be tasked with many things. Among them is building on to the foundation that Kekalainen left behind. The new GM must also be savvy in proper player evaluation. Davidson himself said that will be an important component to this hire.

There are many reasons the Blue Jackets are in last place in the Eastern Conference entering play on Sunday. But near the top of that list were some of the decisions of year’s past. Good teams properly evaluate their talent. That didn’t happen at a critical time for the Blue Jackets and they’re experiencing what happens in those situations.

It once again shows just how critical a hire this is for the Blue Jackets. There’s a foundation. There is hope. But they must get this hire exactly right. Otherwise, it will be more of the same in Columbus, which is something fans have grown accustomed to cheering on this team.