The Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs seem to be intertwined this offseason, partly because former Flames’ general manager, Brad Treliving, switched teams. The two teams are in tough spots this offseason but for completely different reasons. The Flames have a handful of key players not wanting to stick around, forcing decisions upon Craig Conroy and leaving people wondering if the team is going to dive into a rebuild or try to retool on the fly. The Maple Leafs on the other hand have contract standstills with William Nylander and Ilya Samsonov and are already over the cap.
The Maple Leafs and Nylander don’t seem to be on the same page about a contract extension, likely leading to his departure within the next year. That being said, the Flames are in a position to pivot and add a so-called game-breaker to their roster for the long term if they are willing to pay Nylander what Toronto isn’t. The reported $10 million average annual value (AAV) the Maple Leafs’ winger is asking for on his next contract could scare some teams away, but if the Flames are bound to lose players within the year, they will have cap space and room to work with to make their team better.
On Sportsnet 960, George Rusic touched on the notion that the Flames should trade for Nylander, saying, “What’s on the Calgary Flames that you wouldn’t trade for William Nylander?… because what the Flames don’t have right now on the roster is a game breaker.” He would be correct in this statement as the closest thing is Huberdeau and his skating, lack of goal scoring and defence don’t put him in that upper echelon.
Will a Nylander Trade Happen Before or After the 2023-24 Season?
The sense is that Nylander and the Maple Leafs will not close in on a happy medium as the two sides are fairly far apart. Chris Johnston revealed that the winger is looking for money in the $10 million AAV range or above and the Maple Leafs have come at him with a number that starts with an eight. He also noted that recent signings like Timo Meier and Pierre-Luc Dubois are signed for contracts in the high $8 million AAV range and that they are big players, something Treliving has seemed to want to add this offseason.
The two sides still have some time to work out something before the season starts, but it might get more difficult to trade Nylander as the summer goes on and the 2023-24 season grows near. More teams will have their rosters set. There is a high likelihood that whichever team the Maple Leafs’ forward gets traded to is going to sign him to a seven or eight-year contract extension in the range that Nylander is looking for in terms of AAV.
While the Maple Leafs can maximize his value right now after a 40-goal, 87-point season and one full year left at $6.962 million AAV, his value is going to drop next offseason before he becomes an unrestricted free agent (UFA) unless a sign-and-trade is executed. Don’t forget, a sign-and-trade can still be made now involving Nylander since he’s eligible to sign his next contract.
Treliving has come into the Maple Leafs and already made a mark by showing his hand at what type of team he wants to assemble. He added grit and toughness in Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and Ryan Reaves. The reason I point this out is Nylander is the furthest thing from a player who plays with grit and toughness. He has 125 hits in 531 career games and hasn’t recorded 20 hits in a season since 2017-18. The writing seems to be on the wall for him in Toronto, especially with Auston Matthews as the more integral player to lock up long-term.
Flames on the Move
Tyler Toffoli was the first to go of the group of 2024 UFAs on the Flames after he claimed he was never approached with an extension offer. Instead, the focus has been on Elias Lindholm as it appears as though there is a blank cheque in front of him to get him to sign with the team long-term. Whether that is a good idea or not, is another discussion. But just because he is being offered lots of money to return for a long time, doesn’t mean he wants to. The Flames could get a ton of value out of him at $4.85 million AAV next season.
Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin, Nikita Zadorov, Chris Tanev, and Oliver Kylington are all going into their final years under contract and most are likely on their way out. That’s a lot of money to work with. The team has players like Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri, and Blake Coleman all locked up for three years at the very least, so adding Nylander to the mix this offseason would really change the complexion of the forward group. Toffoli’s offence from last season would be replaced and then some by a younger and more talented player.
Related: Insider Connects Flames’ Zadorov to Maple Leafs in Trade
The Flames could hope for good seasons by many or all of the players heading into contract years and then deal with the repercussions after the season, or they could act early and make more moves. As of right now, the free agent crop is strong next season, but I don’t expect many of the names to hit the open market.
That being said, it will be difficult for the Flames to alter their team positively if they don’t jump at the opportunity to acquire Nylander during this time of crisis for the Maple Leafs. While he would still have to agree to a long-term contract with the Flames, that one move would set them on a path to avoid having to rebuild. If he’s not acquired, it will be a difficult road to avoid.