Hindsight is always 20/20 and unfortunately, that level of clarity is often not available before a decision is made. Calgary Flames’ newly-hired general manager Craig Conroy likely wishes that weren’t true as he is faced with a seemingly infinite number of questions heading into the ever-important 2023-24 season. It’s no secret that the Flames have decisions to make with a large number of pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs) currently on their roster. Now we sit about a month and a half after the start of free agency and the new boss has been patient, only making a single trade involving a pending UFA after plenty of rumours swirled about the possibility of significant names such as Elias Lindholm or Noah Hanifin being dealt, despite the importance that the resolution of these contract situations has on the franchise.
There could be a few reasons attributed to the Flames’ lack of moves, including reasons such as; not a good enough market, unclear willingness to re-sign, and more pressing moves, among others. One thing that is certain, is that Conroy is willing to make a move involving his pending UFAs as he stated as much in his opening press conference, and followed it with the Tyler Toffoli trade that brought forward Yegor Sharangovich to Calgary. So why have there not been more moves made by the Flames’ new GM? Well, it seems he is taking a patient approach to the situation in hopes of not making an unnecessary move that hurts the organization.
Risk of Moving Too Early
When faced with as many questions and potential moves as Conroy is, many get too giddy and want to jump the gun and pull off a sizable deal in order to get it over with and avoid waiting too long. In some cases, this will work out just fine, as when you have the necessary supply and there is enough demand it can be foolish to let that opportunity pass. However, other times making a move quickly can rob the team of the opportunity to make a deal when the market is fully developed. Sometimes you have to let teams learn that they need your player before you can trade them for a good return.
Making trades in and around free agency adds another element that teams have to be aware of. This is because negotiations are always impacted by the negotiating party’s options outside of the negotiation. During free agency, teams who are looking to add NHL-level talent may negotiate trades with other teams to feel out the market, but will also look at filling their needs with free agents as it would not cost any trade capital. This can take a large amount of leverage away from the team trading the NHL talent (in this case the Flames) as the other side may deem a free agent as a better option leading to an end in negotiations unless the trade cost is too low to pass up.
Related: Flames Set up to Trade Hanifin With Karlsson Off the Board
In the case of the 2023-24 Flames, making a move too early can also prevent the possibility of re-signing one or more of their pending UFAs. Whether players like Lindholm or Backlund are worth their rumoured costs is a conversation for another time, however, there is value in re-signing notable players as they are already accustomed to the organization, the fans, the team, and are already established voices in the dressing room, not to mention the on-ice value. Before making a trade involving these players, Conroy would need to be confident that they will not re-sign if he would like to go down that route.
Risk of Moving Too Late
Just like making a move too early, there are risks in making a move too late. The main risk is missing out. Similar to musical chairs, you don’t want to be the last one without a chair when the music stops. If Conroy were to wait too long to make a trade, once it was to be decided that is the route to take, he may find himself in a situation where he has tradeable assets such as Noah Hanifin, but either no teams to trade with or only a select few because they have already gone out and filled the holes on their roster.
Moving too late often will cause one of two outcomes; either forcing a trade and not getting enough in return due to the loss of leverage that waiting caused (similar to the Jakob Chychrun situation), or deciding to wait even longer and hoping to make a trade later when the market develops again (due to injuries, quality of play, etc.).
As the offseason stands right now and the Flames head into the 2023-24 season, it appears as if they are getting close to the point of moving too late and may need to make a choice and see if in-season moves make more sense.
Every Situation is Different
In sports, most situations are not black and white, instead, there is a whole lot of grey. When should Conroy make a move? Should he be aggressive or patient? Should a trade be made before the players confirm their unwillingness to re-sign? Nobody really knows the answers to these questions as in the many years of the NHL and the many offseasons that have come and gone, every situation that has arisen has had its own intricacies and differences from others that were similar in nature.
This season and the choices made with the pending free agents are crucial to the short and long-term outlook of this franchise, and Conroy’s patient approach will likely be a make-or-break factor in whether we look back on this season as a success or not two or three years down the line. He may play the situation just right and capitalize on a trade market or re-sign a key player, or may wait too long and let the opportunities pass.
