The NHL’s preseason is in full swing and players are getting their first taste of professional competition for the year. Of course, most rosters have young players battling for spots, but many individuals use the opportunity to shake off the rust and get back into game shape. Unfortunately, as with any high-level sport, as soon as play begins the potential for injury does as well.
For the Tampa Bay Lightning, this has come full swing. Their starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has just recently undergone back surgery to repair a lumbar disc herniation and will miss at least the first two months of the regular season. This is a huge blow as he has long been considered a top three-to-five goalie in the league and is heavily leaned on each season by the Lightning. Now the team has only backup Jonas Johansson, prospect Hugo Alnefelt, and journeyman Matt Tomkins at their disposal.
This is where the Calgary Flames come in. They currently find themselves in the exact opposite situation; they have too many NHL-calibre goaltenders. 33-year-old Jacob Markstrom occupies the starting role, 26-year-old Dan Vladar is the backup, and waiting in the wings is back-to-back American Hockey League (AHL) Goalie of the Year Dustin Wolf. Wolf is ready to make the transition to the Flames but has no space to do so. Sure, the Flames could roll with three goalies as it has been done before. However, this process is painful and makes it difficult to get all involved netminders adequate playing time. A trade makes more sense. Wolf is the Flames’ goalie of the future and Markstrom makes a whopping $6 million per year which is next to impossible to trade, making Vladar the odd man out. Here is why Vladar to the Lightning is the most logical.
Lightning Fill the Gap
Vladar is a very adept add and would complement the Lightning’s crease quite well. A third-round selection of the Boston Bruins back in 2015, he was ironically acquired by the Flames in 2021 for a third-round pick. In 2022-23, he made a career-high 27 appearances and had a 14-6-5 record to show for it. In multiple stretches of the Flames’ season, Markstrom struggled and Vladar took over, keeping the team in the thick of things with relatively solid play. His underlying numbers aren’t fantastic, with a career 2.85 goals-against average (GAA) and a .899 save percentage (SV%), but he just seems to make timely saves and win games (29 in 55 career appearances). Vladar would immediately become the Lightning’s best goalie with “Vasy” on the shelf.
Johansson is an unproven commodity, especially if tasked with a starter’s workload. The 28-year-old has only appeared in 35 career matches in the NHL, with an 11-13-4 record to go along with a 3.32 GAA and a .887 SV%. Alnefelt has played one NHL game in which he surrendered three goals on just ten shots, and Tomkins has never played in the big leagues. The Lightning simply can’t rely on the trio to keep them afloat for two whole months in an uber-competitive Atlantic Division. Organizations such as the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators, among others, added more pieces and will be looking to overtake teams like the Lightning, who have made the playoffs seven years consecutively.
Make Way for Wolf
At just 22 years of age, Wolf has dominated the AHL, accomplished everything as an amateur, and is widely considered the best professional goalie outside of the NHL. He was the recipient of the AHL’s MVP award last season after leading the league in wins, shutouts, GAA, and SV%. The immensely talented young man got to make his NHL debut in the relatively meaningless season finale last season against the San Jose Sharks. His team had already been eliminated from playoff contention and were overwhelmingly distraught, but Wolf still made the most of it, stopping 23 of 24 shots in a 3-1 victory.
Wolf is in the final year of his entry-level contract and will likely want to get more of a taste of the show before locking in long-term with the Flames. He has proven to be too good for the AHL and therefore the next rational move is for him to be an NHL backup. Moving out Vladar offers him said opportunity and allows him to spend quality time learning from a former Vezina Trophy candidate in Markstrom. If all goes well, Wolf will accumulate more and more playing time and eventually swap roles with Markstrom over time.
Money is Tight; Potential Return
Unfortunately for both teams, available capital is scarce. The Lightning currently have negative-$73,000 in cap space, accounting for the contract of Brent Seabrook going on long-term injured reserve (LTIR), while the Flames have negative-$213,000. However, defenseman Oliver Kylington was declared to be out of training camp and may once again be out for some time as he was last season. In addition, young forward Jakob Pelletier was recently hit into the boards awkwardly in a preseason game against the Seattle Kraken. He is slated to undergo shoulder surgery and will be out indefinitely. Those two contracts could potentially be put on LTIR to give the Flames space for trades, and Vasilevskiy going on LTIR will fix the problem for the Lightning.
With a bit of salary cap retention on behalf of the Flames, the Lightning could potentially keep Vladar around when Vasilevskiy inevitably returns as well. New general manager Craig Conroy may not be so keen to do so however, and the Lightning may have to flip one of Vladar or Johansson in a subsequent deal to remain under the cap. Also, the Flames should get a pick and a serviceable player for their efforts. The Lightning’s 2025 second-rounder or 2024 third could do the trick alongside someone like defenseman Haydn Fleury. Fleury is on a cheap one-year deal and could be a good seventh defenseman or quick call-up from the minors. Therefore Vladar (retained or not) for Fleury and a second or third-round choice is our mock proposal.
Ultimately, the Lightning may elect to roll with what they have or try and get a cheaper, lesser-quality goaltender from another organization. Waivers will be in full effect very soon and they may be able to scoop up a netminder without losing any assets. However, if they want to stay alive in their division and the Eastern Conference in general, they may have to bite the bullet and get a more household name to help out. This proposition gives the Lightning their man whilst also giving the Flames cap space, help on the backend, draft capital and a path for their goalie of the future to succeed.
