With the March 8 trade deadline hastily approaching, the Philadelphia Flyers find themselves in the unique position of looking like a playoff team despite being in a rebuild. However, as expected, management has said that they’re committed to looking ahead to the team’s future instead of being wrapped up in the present.
But the recent news that the Flyers have spoken informally about extending 29-year-old defenseman Sean Walker suggests that might not be the case. Walker was acquired as a salary dump when they dealt Ivan Provorov to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Nothing is set in stone and the team is seeing what they have, but there’s a chance a deal gets made.
Walker is playing well, obviously, but an extension—especially out of spite—is not a good idea. General manager (GM) Daniel Briere has remained adamant that he wants a first-round pick for the defenseman, but if he can’t get that, he should not hand out a contract for that reason alone.
Walker’s Cost Is Far Too High
A fair extension for Walker would be in the low $4 million average annual value (AAV) range for about three or four seasons. His camp reportedly wanting $5 million or above is, well, generous. Of course, that’s just what his camp is asking for and not necessarily what he’ll get. But it’s still too much for any team to pay for Walker, let alone the Flyers.
Extensions have a way of working themselves out. It’s a negotiation, and no one is going to start with the number they feel they are worth. The team will go a little bit under market value, the player will go a little bit over that, and then they’ll meet in the middle. The problem here that is Walker’s “middle” is still too high.
AFP Analytics has his next contract valued at just over $4 million for four years, which is exactly what he should get on the open market, give or take some money. In the middle of $4 million and $5.5 million is around $4.75 million, which is a lot to commit to a second-pairing defender who is having the best season of his career.
A payday like $4.75 million for multiple years would mean trouble, especially if trade protection is included. Simply put, even if no team is willing to offer as much as a mid-round pick for his services, Briere shouldn’t offer him an extension just because he can’t move him. Overpaying him, even if he’s having a good season, is not a good idea.
Walker Trade Doesn’t Make Sense Short-Term
A counterargument is that the Flyers would be better off extending him if they can’t get anything worthwhile in return. How much does a second-round pick, a likely return if Briere can’t get the first-round pick he desires, really help the rebuild?
Multi-year deals for veterans are meant to pay off early. The Flyers are 29-20-7 with a tendency to lose to the superstars they face. That suggests they won’t fare too well in the postseason. If the Flyers were to win anything during Walker’s tenure, now would be the time and it still doesn’t seem all that probable.
An extension for Walker also doesn’t make sense because the Flyers already have too many defensemen. In and out of the lineup go players like Egor Zamula and Marc Staal as the coaching staff tries to balance eight defenders who are worthy of a roster spot. No NHL team needs eight defenders.
While Walker is one of the few true second-pairing defenders on the team (the rest are solid third-pairing options), that doesn’t mean the Flyers still don’t have excess. Travis Sanheim, Cam York, and Jamie Drysdale are all capable of playing there and all have contracts through the 2024-25 season. If he’s not traded, Nick Seeler also fits. That’s four defenders for the top four without Walker.
Related: Flyers Can Move a Defenseman After Adding Jamie Drysdale
Another argument is that he might help some of the younger players improve. When paired with Zamula, Walker has an expected goal share of 46 percent. With York, it’s just 44.1 percent. Both young defenders have worse results when they’re paired with him. If the Flyers want an impact player, they should get one through free agency or trade and not fall back on Walker. At this point, he doesn’t have the upside to get improvements out of the youth through his play.
When Walker is supposed to be at his best, he is not much help to the team. It just doesn’t make that much sense to be that high on him, even if it is to win now. A trade for pretty much anything makes more sense than keeping him, especially given what management has done with mid-round picks recently.
Flyers Cannot Lose Sight of the Rebuild
The Flyers are in a rebuild. They are not Stanley Cup contenders, and they cannot lose sight of that. They’ve spent so much time preaching openness and honesty, from the Cutter Gauthier drama to their approach to the deadline, that going back on that would immediately put Briere and co. in the hot seat. It might not seem like a big deal, but going in the opposite direction of that isn’t a good idea for management to do in the first season of their regime.
The Flyers have already made this mistake, giving term to players who didn’t have a lasting impact on the team’s future. It’s not the move for a team in the middle of the pack. Until superstar talent is apparent on the roster, veterans shouldn’t be added. By the time they should have some star players, those veterans’ contracts would be albatrosses.
The Flyers should be adding as many young players and draft picks as they can during this time, not giving money to veterans who likely won’t be there when they make genuine moves to win the Stanley Cup. An extension for Walker doesn’t align with the team’s rebuild, as they won’t be in a position to make those Cup-winning moves until Matvei Michkov comes over, which is likely in 2026-27. But, even then, Michkov probably won’t be a franchise cornerstone at age 21.
Now, the Flyers haven’t signed anything yet. They’re allowed to have talks, but there really shouldn’t be any. Walker has been good for the Flyers, but he is not worth keeping around considering where the team is at, what he is asking for, and the strengths of the roster.
