Goaltending is always a major talking point among the Edmonton Oilers’ fan base, and for good reason. Goaltender Stuart Skinner has a 2.54 goals-against average (GAA) and an .899 save percentage (SV%) through 10 starts this season. Meanwhile, backup Calvin Pickard has struggled immensely, holding a 3.42 GAA and an .850 SV% after five starts. While Pickard has been bad, Skinner has been better than most people give him credit for.
Related: Insiders Suggest Oilers Open to Trading Stuart Skinner
The Oilers have been getting average goaltending from their number-one netminder, as expected. At least he only has a $2.6 million cap hit. He’s not an elite goalie, but he’s not being paid like one. Goalies like Jeremy Swayman, Ilya Sorokin, and Juuse Saros all have similar or worse numbers than Skinner, but are all being paid like elite goalies. Swayman has an .897 SV%, Sorokin has an .879 SV%, and Saros has a .900 SV%. While those goalies mentioned would likely have better numbers on this Oilers team, an in-season trade of that magnitude is unlikely, especially given the salary cap situation. Therefore, a major upgrade may not be plausible.
There’s no question that the goaltending needs to be better, but so does the rest of the team. Skinner isn’t the sole reason the Oilers are losing games. With that said, Edmonton has bigger issues to resolve.
Oilers Aren’t Generating Enough Offence
The Oilers aren’t generating enough offence at five on five, and with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the team, that’s unacceptable. According to Natural Stat Trick, they rank 29th in the league in expected goals per 60 minutes, 27th in scoring chances per 60 minutes, 31st in high-danger chances per 60 minutes, and 24th in shot attempts per 60 minutes. To put that into perspective, last season they were second, third, second, and sixth, respectively, in those categories. They went from the top of the league in those offensive categories to the bottom, and that’s alarming.
The Oilers have 2.31 expected goals per 60 minutes, and 8.82 high-danger chances per 60 minutes at five on five. They are also 21st in the league in high-danger chances with 113. Overall, they are scoring 3.07 goals per game, 17th in the league, but their top-ranked power play is the reason it’s that high. They must find a way to create more offence at even strength because they can’t always rely on special teams.
The eye test supports these numbers because they haven’t appeared particularly dangerous. They rely heavily on the perimeter-cycle game and aren’t generating traffic in front of the net. This is the area that needs the most improvement. The Oilers can usually outscore their problems, but that hasn’t been the case. Yes, the goaltending can be better, but at the end of the day, the even-strength offence must improve.
Oilers Make Too Many Costly Turnovers
Simply put, poor turnovers have proved costly. These turnovers get magnified when they don’t get the big save and the puck winds up in your net. Contrary to popular belief, Skinner has actually made some big saves in recent games, including stopping a breakaway off an egregious turnover against the Chicago Blackhawks on Nov. 1 to preserve a one-goal lead.
Edmonton had a two-goal lead against the Dallas Stars in their last contest, but failed to manage the puck, which has been the theme all season. Brutal turnovers keep occurring, resulting in high-danger chances against. Dallas had an 11-3 advantage in high-danger chances at five on five, including 4-1 in the third period. The Stars also had five high-danger chances in the first period, but Skinner kept them scoreless, and nobody mentioned that. As a result, the Oilers got a multi-goal lead. If it wasn’t for the goaltender, Edmonton could’ve easily been down in that game.
The Oilers don’t allow many shots — 24.9 per game, the third fewest — but the opportunities they allow are usually high-quality and off turnovers. They need to eliminate those costly errors because they don’t have the elite goaltender to constantly bail them out. Skinner has largely been fine, but the Oilers have bigger issues to deal with. Once they eliminate these big mistakes, the goalies’ numbers should improve.
The Oilers return to action on Saturday (Nov. 8) when they host the Colorado Avalanche. Keep following The Hockey Writers for all your NHL content throughout the season.
