With the Vegas Golden Knights finally emerging out of a rut that saw them nearly fall out of the playoff picture and still only sitting third in the Pacific Division, it’s fair to say that wasn’t the position they expected to find themselves in at this stage of the season. The club is three points clear of the Los Angeles Kings in the Pacific, so there’s no sense of panic. However, their current standing has to be a little disappointing coming off of an 111-point season that produced a division title and a Stanley Cup.
So why have the Golden Knights, currently sitting at 92 points through 75 games, seemingly taken a step back this year? The Cup-winning roster returned largely in tact (save for Reilly Smith) and got significantly bolstered at the trade deadline, but injuries have taken their toll, with the likes of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Shea Theodore and a host of other regulars missing time. There also could be somewhat of a ‘Stanley Cup hangover’ at play, with a veteran roster that didn’t get much of an offseason last summer.
Of course, year-to-year performance variation happens, too. The Golden Knights know that better than most, having gone from outside the playoff picture in 2022-23 to champs in 2023-24. While this season has seen players ascend to new career highs, there have also been some underperformers who haven’t quite lived up to expectations. As Vegas looks to lock down a playoff spot with seven games to go, let’s take a look at those who have exceeded expectations and those who have fallen short.
Exceeded: Jonathan Marchessault
Although the brash Vegas original Jonathan Marchessault doesn’t do much quietly, his career-best offensive campaign has flown a bit under the radar. The reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner has obliterated his previous career-high of 30 goals to pot 41 this year, challenging William Karlsson’s franchise-record 43 goals in the club’s expansion year.
Beyond scoring goals, Marchessault’s campaign has stood out for productivity and endurance. The 33-year-old currently boasts 66 points, already matching his career-high with plenty of time left. That wouldn’t have been possible were it not for his health, remaining one of just three Golden Knights (along with Brayden McNabb and Ivan Barbashev) to suit up for all of the team’s games this season.
Ironically, Marchessault’s exceptional level of play could serve to expedite his departure out of Vegas this summer. The pending unrestricted free agent would love to stick around with the Golden Knights, but he might command more money on the open market as a 40-goal scorer than the organization can afford to fork over.
Fallen Short: Chandler Stephenson
While Marchessault’s season has coincided quite nicely with his status as a pending free agent, the same can’t be said for Chandler Stephenson.
Coming off of a pair of career-best seasons of 64 and 65 points, respectively, Stephenson could’ve used another similarly productive season to catapult him into the $6-7 million cap hit range, alongside the likes of Brandon Hagel, Chris Kreider and Clayton Keller. Instead, the 29-year-old has managed just 15 goals and 46 points in 71 games.
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Quite frankly, this down season couldn’t have come at a worse time for Stephenson. His age and lack of sustained peak level play year-after-year may soften his market. There is also no clear fit back in Vegas, with Tomas Hertl poised to join Eichel and Karlsson down the middle heading into next season. Given the strides made by the former Washington Capital over his four and a half seasons in Vegas, it would be a shame if he wasn’t able to fully cash in as a free agent.
Exceeded: William Karlsson
Let’s forget about Karlsson’s 2017-18 season for a moment. For as remarkable as the speedy Swede’s 43-goal, 78-point showing was in the club’s expansion campaign, he hasn’t approached those numbers since, making them an unrealistic outlier. Once that season is removed from the equation, you can easily make the argument that this season has been his best.
Karlsson currently has 53 points, matching his season total from a season ago (although he does have 26 goals, compared to 12 last season). The difference, however, is that the 31-year-old’s offensive totals have come in just 63 games this season, compared to a full 82 in 2022-23. As a point of reference, Karlsson had 46 points when he played in 63 games in 2019-20 and 35 in 67 games in 2021-22.
The most remarkable thing about Karlsson’s standout season thus far has been his consistency. Excluding January, when he was held to just one game all month as a result of a lower-body injury, the former Lady Byng Trophy winner has tallied between nine and 11 points in each of the other five months (it’s not really fair to count a short April in that calculation). While his age (he’s 31) might suggest a forthcoming statistical decline, he has turned a strong Cup run (17 points in 22 games) into an impressive campaign.
Fallen Short: Ivan Barbashev
It’s hard to know if disappointment surrounding Barbashev’s season is fair or simply a case of inflated expectations. On one hand, he’s actually been slightly more productive this season than he was a season ago (44 points in 75 games this season, compared to 45 points in 82 games last season). On the other hand, those numbers still represent a considerable decline from his 26-goal, 60-point 2021-22 campaign.
Suffice to say, this probably isn’t the forward that the organization felt was worth sacrificing Smith in order to retain last summer. Smith (35 points in 69 games) has endured his own struggles for the disappointing Pittsburgh Penguins, but that still doesn’t leave Barbashev’s five-year, $25 million contract looking particularly good right now. And as one of the aforementioned three Golden Knights to play in every game this season, the 28-year-old’s woes can’t be chalked up to health.
The hope for Barbashev comes with postseason play offering a potential fresh start. The two-time Cup champion has always elevated his game in the spring, but took that to a new level last year with 18 points in 22 games as part of the dominant top line alongside Marchessault and Eichel (from ‘Ivan Barbashev keeps boosting value,’ The Athletic, 06/05/23).
It’s fair to say things haven’t gone completely according to plan for the Golden Knights this season, particularly when you consider that they started their title defense by going 11-0-1 . Yet, here they sit, comfortably within the playoff picture and still carrying full confidence in their chances come April 20. If Stephenson and Barbashev find a way to raise their game in the mold of Vegas originals Marchessault and Karlsson, then all the better.
