September is just around the corner, which means it’s almost fantasy hockey pool draft season. When deciding who makes the ideal fantasy player, there are several key things to consider. There are three key stats to look at when deciding on a fantasy hockey player they are goal scoring, power play points and playing time.
GOAL SCORING: Drafting a goal scorer means you are getting a player who creates his own offence. A playmaker will only get points if the goal scorer puts the puck in the net. So when looking at players to draft who score about the same amount of points, always go with goal scorers, as they control their own destiny.
Last season, only four players scored 40 or more goals, Steven Stamkos (60), Evgeni Malkin (50), Marian Gaborik (41) and James Neal (40). Over the last three
only four players have scored at a 40+ goal rate, Stamkos, Malkin, Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby.
Last season Shea Weber and Erik Karlsson both scored 19 goals, while Jason Garrison scored 16 and Niklas Kronwall scored 15 goals. Over the last three
the top three goals per game producers were Weber, Dustin Byfuglien and Mike Green.
Elite goal scorers score 50 or more goals a season, while good goal scorers pot in the 30 to 40 range. On
elite goal scorers hammer home 20 or more goals and good goal scoring defensemen score 10 or more goals.
In the Fantasy Hockey Coach (FHC) Hockey Pool Playbook we are predicting that Stamkos will lead the NHL in goals again this season with Malkin, Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk, Phil Kessel and Jordan Eberle all scoring over 40 goals. The predicted top five
defensemen are Garrison with 18 and Karlsson, Byfuglien, Weber and Kronwall all with 16.
POWER PLAY POINTS: Only offensive players get to play on the power play. When a team has the man advantage, they don’t put out their strongest defensive player. Just like on the power play, fantasy teams want the best offensive players out there.
A lot of websites just list power play goals but you should look at power play points because it gives you a better idea of how a player produces with the man advantage.
The top five power-play point producers from last season were: Claude Giroux (38), Malkin (34), Brian Campbell (31), Neal (30) and Kovalchuk (29).
Hockey Pool Playbook we examine the power play points per games played (PPP/GP) over the last three seasons. The top five PPP/GP forwards are Crosby (0.44), Teemu Selanne (0.43), Stamkos (0.41), Daniel Sedin (0.41) and Malkin (0.41). Dan Boyle, Sergei Gonchar, Chris Pronger and Green all averaged over 0.3 PPP/GP.
The top five predicted power play points leaders as per the FHC Hockey Pool Playbook are Stamkos (34), Martin St. Louis (31), Brad Richards (31), Henrik Sedin (30) and Malkin (29).
PLAYING TIME: The final stat to look at is time on ice (TOI). Your fantasy player won’t get you any points if he is stuck on the bench. Most first-line forwards will play 20 to 24 minutes a game while top-pairing defencemen will be on the ice for 26 to 30 minutes. Be sure to look at total TOI as well as power-play TOI.
Last year the top three TOI/GP for forwards were Kovalchuk (24:26), St. Louis (22:37) and Stamkos (22:01) and defensemen were Campbell (26:53), Duncan Keith (26:53) and Ryan Suter (26:30).
Last year the top three PP TOI/GP for forwards were Kovalchuk (4:55), Malkin (4:21) and Richards (4:09) and defensemen were Michael Del Zotto (4:11), Campbell (4:08) and Kris Letang (4:05).
In the 2012-13 FHC Hockey Pool
we showcase in the player profiles TOI and PP TOI for the last three seasons as well as predict what we expect that player to be on the ice for.
Remember, the two biggest factors to look at are guys who can create their own offence and are getting enough playing time for them to have that opportunity to score.
Follow me on Twitter: @brouwerfhc