The first round matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders is set and will begin this weekend. It’s a rematch from the first round last season but these teams are a lot different, especially the Islanders who went through a lot of turnover particularly behind the bench.
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The Islanders fired Lane Lambert and hired Patrick Roy as their head coach midseason and the move changed how the team looked and helped them make the playoffs by the season’s end. They went from playing a fast but chaotic style of hockey to a tight and disciplined game. The Hurricanes, like last season, are playing great across the board and put together an exceptional regular season but this time, they’ve sent the message that they are going all-in on winning the Cup.
This series will be a battle and after going six games last season, it could go the distance this time around. There are a lot of factors that will determine how things play out and the winner at that but because the series can and should go seven games, seven keys to the first round matchup will suffice.
1. Limiting Aho With Gap-Sound Defense
Casual hockey fans watch the Stanley Cup Playoffs get a good look at the Hurricanes and say “Wait, this Sebastian Aho guy is pretty good” something the Islanders have known for a long time. Aho has established himself as a star in the NHL and one of the few elite forwards in the game despite not getting the Hart Trophy recognition as others.
Aho scored a team-leading 36 goals and 53 assists this season and has 254 goals and 303 assists in his career. What makes him great is not just the ways that he can generate offense but also his ability to make his linemates better on the ice. He scored four goals and three assists in last season’s matchup and gashed the Islanders with speed on the rush and quick cross-ice passes and he’ll do it again if given the chance.
The Islanders have to make sure he doesn’t beat them. It’s easier said than done but the big key to limiting him is to prevent those quick passes and force the direct shots on the net. Additionally, when Aho doesn’t have the puck, it’s pivotal to limit the passing lanes and have a willingness to block shots in the high-danger areas. His production will be the biggest tell in who has the advantage in the series, and all eyes will be on him because of it.
2. Hurricanes Punishing Islanders on Special Teams
This is far and beyond the most favorable matchup for the Hurricanes. They finished the season with the second-best power play in the NHL, scoring on 26.91 percent of its opportunities. That’s good and somehow their penalty kill was better, killing them 86.43 percent of the time. It’s reflective of a star-studded team while also a well-coached team.
The Islanders meanwhile have been awful in both. They scored on only 19.74 percent of their power play opportunities and killed only 72.15 percent of penalties, both of which are below the league average. Ideally, they would fix both special team units before the playoffs but they didn’t and now run into a juggernaut.
Since the officials have a long-standing history of making bad calls in the playoffs (at least that’s what it seems like based on social media reactions to every call), this can decide the series. The Hurricanes can take advantage of the Islanders’ mistakes and particularly run up the score on the man advantage.
3. Two-Way Defensemen
Last season, the gap was noticeable between a good and great defense. The Hurricanes could create turnovers and then move the puck up the ice to create instant scoring chances and they had the defensemen who could open up the offense from the point. The Islanders could stop the opposition but not do much else afterward. Brent Burns was a particular thorn in the Islanders’ side as he distributed five assists in the first round to help the Hurricanes win the series in six games.
The Islanders enter this series with Noah Dobson, who scored 10 goals and 60 assists this season, questionable with an upper-body injury. His absence or even a limited version of him will require the other defensemen to step up on the offensive end of the ice, and throughout the season they’ve failed to do so. Even worse, they have to match Burns and Brady Skjei, who added 23 goals and 67 assists from the blue line.
The Islanders will make this a series if Dobson returns to form and makes a significant impact offensively but otherwise, it’s an uphill battle. The playoffs are where goals are hard to come by and both teams will need their defensemen to add a spark. Likewise, goals that come from anywhere will go a long way, leading to the next key in this series.
4. Depth Scoring
Both teams head into the playoffs playing great defense. The Hurricanes, who allowed only 2.57 goals per game, allowed only 13 goals in their final six games of the season (six of which came in a dress rehearsal that was the season finale). The Islanders meanwhile only allowed 11 goals in their final nine games. The bottom line is that both these teams will make this series low-scoring with the first goal in every game likely being the most important one.
Having a skater or two in the bottom six who can step up and find the back of the net will make all the difference. Last season, that skater was Paul Stastny, who scored three goals including the Game 6 overtime winner to allow the Hurricanes to advance. The question is, who will it be for both teams this time around? There are a lot of players to choose from but here are a few to keep an eye out for.
- Jordan Staal: The veteran center always takes it up a notch for the playoffs and with 10 goals this season, he’s still capable of scoring a goal or two in a close game.
- Evgeny Kuznetsov: The Hurricanes acquired him with the hopes that he’d be a force in the playoffs. He’s only scored two goals and seven assists in 20 games with the team but could surprise many by finding a few scoring chances near the net.
- Simon Holmstrom: 14 goals this season, five of them coming on the power play. The 22-year-old skater burst onto the scene this season and his shot could make his first playoff series a memorable one.
- Pierre Engvall: It’s been a rough season for him and it’s easy to forget he was one of the bright spots in last season’s series, scoring a goal and adding an assist while the rest of the offense fell flat. His speed and burst of energy from the wing could allow him to find a few quick goals in a close series like this one.
5. Can Roy Adapt to the Situation at Hand?
Roy’s already had an impact on the Islanders, but he can make his mark as one of the elite coaches in the NHL with a strong series. Outcoaching Rod Brind’Amour is a tall and arguably impossible task so doing so will be a big deal. He’s proven he can get the best out of the Islanders but he’ll have to win this series from a strategic standpoint.
He needs to adapt not just from game to game but within games and allow the Islanders to win in multiple ways. There will be games where the team must win with speed and others where they must slow things down, and great head coaches know when to adjust accordingly. The Memorial Cup is one thing, but the Stanley Cup is a different beast. This is an early test for Roy and one where he can have a signature moment with the Islanders.
6. Barzal’s Shooting
The Hurricanes love to make opposing offenses uncomfortable and the Islanders will be asked to create scoring chances where it appears impossible to do so. In short, the Islanders must make something out of nothing. One way to do that is to have Mathew Barzal shooting the puck on the net, something he’s done throughout the season. He scored a career-high 23 goals and his willingness to shoot made him an All-Star caliber player and the leader of the offense.
The ripple effect of Barzal’s shooting would be that Bo Horvat, who has 33 goals this season, will find more open looks on the net. If the Hurricanes have to respect his shot, it opens up the ice for the other skaters on Barzal’s line where he can suddenly impact the game with his speed and passing. The Islanders’ offense can at times be dependent on the top-line production but that can be a good thing if they take over this series.
7. How Brind’Amour & Roy Deploy Their Goaltenders
Goaltending is the wild card of this series and an intriguing subject for both teams heading into the playoffs. The Hurricanes struggled all season in the net and the terrible performances looked poised to derail a season with Stanley Cup aspirations. With Pyotr Kotchetkov finding his footing and Frederik Andersen returning to the lineup, they found their footing just in time for a deep playoff run. The Islanders on the other hand have rolled with Seymon Varlamov lately as he’s had the hot hand and his strong play helped them secure a playoff spot.
The question is what happens if either team’s starting goaltender struggles? Roy might have the faster hook knowing Ilya Sorokin can step up as a backup and take over a series. Sorokin is the best goaltender on the Islanders and one of the best in the league but he was overworked this season and wasn’t the same. In a short series, he can fill in, and just like Adin Hill did for the Vegas Golden Knights last season, never look back.
Roy might be quick to make a change, but it’s unclear if Brind’Amour will do the same. If there is something that could cause the Hurricanes to unravel in this series, it can be their goaltending and if it does, the team will never hear the end of it. With all the big moves they made, they never addressed goaltending and it could be what eliminates them, especially in a series where both goaltenders will be asked to carry their teams.
Other Keys to the Series
Jake Guentzel was acquired at the deadline for the playoffs. His scoring touch is one thing, but he’s been a force in the playoffs throughout his career. He scored 13 goals and eight assists in the 2017 Playoffs to help the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Stanley Cup and with 34 goals and 24 assists in his playoff career, he’s the type of skater who can put the Hurricanes over the top. The Islanders will have their hands full trying to stop him and must respect his scoring instincts.
Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri stepped up in the playoffs last season for the Islanders, combining for four goals and six assists. They could swing this series in the Islanders’ favor especially if they find open looks on the net. The offense drops off after the top two lines and having Nelson leading that second line will help keep the Islanders in the series and possibly allow them to pull off the upset.
Because this is the Hurricanes and the Islanders, this pits Aho vs Aho for those who care about that. The broadcast gets hyper when both skaters are on the ice and expect to hear both of their names throughout the series. With the Islanders’ entire defense trying to stop the Hurricanes’ top player, Aho will be a key part of this series and if either does anything in this series, you won’t hear the end of it.
Last season, this matchup went six games but it was a one-sided series with the Hurricanes controlling the pace and momentum. This time, things will be different. The Hurricanes enter the first round with the advantage but it will be a tough fight for them to beat a much-improved Islanders team.
