The roster is beginning to take shape for the Carolina Hurricanes, and lineups are being envisioned. Don Waddell did everything he could to add to this team and made critical additions to the forward group. The depth of this roster is profound, and this forward group is well-balanced. After looking at the defensive pairings, here is what the forward lines could look like entering the 2023-24 season.
Michael Bunting, Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis
The top line is almost identical to last season, but there will be a minor change. Out comes Teuvo Teravainen, and in comes newly signed Michael Bunting. The roster’s depth with its forward group is loaded, so the difference provides a delicate balance.
Sebastian Aho is an elite playmaker with great goal-scoring to tie it all together. Every great center needs great wingers, which Aho will have this season. Seth Jarvis is a bolt of lightning and has excellent hockey IQ and awareness. In addition, he is a steady offensive presence, as he generated the third most expected goals (25.2) last season. He scored well below his expected rate, but he finished seventh in points (39). He is not the biggest guy, but he possesses a lot of skill and speed.
Related: Hurricanes Projected Defense Pairings for the 2023-24 Season
Bunting is the perfect complement to this top line, as he is a significant net-front presence and is never afraid to go to the high-danger areas. This is an element that was missing from the lineup last season and one that will be a boost to goal-scoring in 2023-24. Carolina likes to play a dump-and-chase style, so being great on the forecheck and getting the pucks to the skill guys is enormous. He is also not shy about playing top-line minutes, as he played on the top line with Auston Matthews with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Among forward lines that played together for 100 minutes, the top line for the Hurricanes was among the best in 2022-23. It averaged 3.38 expected goals for per 60 minutes (47th) and generated 17.7 expected goals in total. Together the top trio finished at their expected rate with 15 goals, which was second most among all Carolina forward lines. Furthermore, the line was responsible defensively and averaged 2.2 expected goals against per 60 minutes. What made it unique was its ability to generate offense and limit the opposition from sustaining any pressure against them. The top line is already a dangerous group, but adding Bunting to it should make it more dynamic and balanced.
Andrei Svechnikov, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Martin Necas
The second line is one that played together for over 200 minutes last season. Jesperi Kotkaniemi will be tasked with centering it but will be flanked by two wingers who had high production. The speedy Martin Necas is coming off a career season with 28 goals, 43 assists, and 71 points. In addition, the rugged power forward Andrei Svechnikov was enjoying a season where he was on pace for 70 points and 29 goals. After tearing his ACL, he will look to pick up where he left off. What makes this line special is that it has a little bit of everything, as it has speed, skill, finishing ability, and defensive awareness all wrapped up into one.
The tools are present to make this an effective line, but last season was not the case. As a unit, they finished with the second-fewest expected goals for per 60 minutes (2.68), and that is concerning, given the talent on the line. However, they did score right at their expected rate, as they scored ten goals while generating 10.3 expected goals. This trio was more lethal defensively than they were offensively, and that is something that will need to change going into the 2023-24 season.
The biggest x-factor to this line is Kotkaniemi and for a good reason. Among all Carolina forward lines that logged 70 minutes, every line centered by him generated the fewest expected goals.
Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal, Jesper Fast
If there was one line that head coach Rod Brind’Amour could rely on last season, it was the Jordan Staal line. Primarily deployed in situations to shut down the opponent’s top line, the line excelled offensively and produced consistently for the team. In addition, sliding down the lineup will be Jordan Martinook, and scoring winger Teravainen will join this line.
It will remain to be seen if the chemistry will be there, but playing Teravainen on the fourth line does not make sense, given his style of play. His wicked shot, paired with his skill set, could help this line produce further.
The third line spent the most time together all season long and had a lot of success. The trio of Martinook, Staal, and Fast generated an eye-opening 41.5 expected goals for and as a line, scored 36 goals. They generated the most expected goals of any forward line, which was more than the top line for the Dallas Stars. Excelling offensively the way they did was huge, and shining brightly in this area was a breath of fresh air as it helped take pressure off the top two lines. As mentioned above, this line was a shutdown line and executed their job perfectly. Together they averaged 2.01 expected goals against and did a great job suppressing the opposition’s chances.
There is not much you can knock this line for as it has become a weapon for Brind’Amour. Up next is the fourth line, where there could be a position battle once training camp kicks off.
Brendan Lemieux/Jordan Martinook, Jack Drury, Stefan Noesen
This is where things get interesting for the Hurricanes, as there could be a battle for positioning. Newly signed Brendan Lemieux was brought in for his physical presence and energy boost for the fourth line. However, after a strong season by Martinook, there could be a battle for the spot on the left wing.
Martinook is coming off a season where he popped off offensively with 13 goals, 21 assists, and 34 points. Even though he finished below his expected rate, his 20.5 expected goals were the sixth most on the Hurricanes during the 2022-23 season. For a guy that was placed on waivers, this was unexpected and delightful to see. Lemieux has never come close to those point totals, but he was not brought in to produce.
Stefan Noesen was a bright spot in the lineup last season, and he could be a massive boost for the team on the fourth line offensively. He had a tremendous season in 2022-23, as he generated 21.4 expected goals and finished with 36 points. Between him and Martinook, that is 70 points combined coming to the fourth line. In addition, their physical presence and ability to wear down the opposition is evident (Noesen with 99 hits, Martinook with 81 hits).
It is unfortunate for Jack Drury as he has the potential to play up the lineup, but based on the current roster construction, he will center the fourth line. He plays with great speed, but on a deep contender like Carolina, the opportunity to do so is not there.
Just like the defensive pairs, the forward group is deep. The lines always shuffle when the season begins, but this is an excellent sign of what is to come.
Hurricanes Are Lethal Up Front
The Hurricanes are deep up front and more profound than last season. This is a massive sign, as they were among the best teams at generating offense. They led the league in Corsi For percentage (60.38) and generated the most expected goals (206.15) at 5v5. However, they were one of the worst teams in terms of finishing ability as they finished with minus-31.15 goals above expected.
The Hurricanes are a team that got better up front and has the depth to do more damage than they did the previous season. In addition, the skill and depth added up front should help with added scoring. Waddell could use another premier goal scorer on this team, but for now, things are settling into place and looking good.
