Heading into the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, the maverick, gun-slinging reputation of the Vegas Golden Knights preceded itself. With specific needs to address amidst the forward corps and some LTIR-enabled cap space to weaponize, everyone knew that the club wouldn’t be shy about utilizing every tool allowed within the rules of the salary cap to improve their roster and that GM Kelly McCrimmon wouldn’t be content playing things conservatively.
Even still, no one expected what the Golden Knights delivered last week. While most playoff-bound franchises added complementary depth support, Vegas brought in three notable pieces to an already star-studded roster. Following a sensible trade for Anthony Mantha, the club made back-to-back splashes, adding the top available defender in Noah Hanifin and then stunned the league with a major play for injured star center Tomas Hertl just before the deadline.
All told, the Golden Knights and owner Bill Foley are currently footing a bill for just under $99 million in player salaries, a staggering number given that the salary cap is set at $83.5 million. And yes, there exists a possibility that Vegas could ice a healthy playoff roster that sees their new additions paired with the likes of injured stars Mark Stone and Alec Martinez at a time when cap rules are no longer enforced.
Now that the Golden Knights have once again employed aggressive, crafty tactics to shock the NHL, let’s take a closer look at the short-, medium- and long-term implications of their big deadline moves.
Short-Term Deadline Impact
The Golden Knights haven’t had much of a chance to bask in their newly strengthened lineup. A recent 2-6-1 slump has dropped them outside of the top-three safe haven in the Pacific Division and into wild-card territory, just six points clear of the St. Louis Blues for the second and final wild-card spot in the West.
Vegas’ current standing in the wild card race has to be worrisome for top West teams like the Vancouver Canucks and Dallas Stars, who could be ‘rewarded’ for terrific seasons by coming up against a stronger version of the defending Stanley Cup champions in the first round. However, let’s not forget how critical this stretch is for the Golden Knights. A playoff miss would be nothing short of disastrous for a club that reloaded at the cost of two first-round picks, other draft assets and prospects David Edstrom and Daniil Miromanov. Heck, even an opening-round series with Vancouver or Dallas would pit Vegas as underdogs.
Apart from on-ice results, the immediate focus on the part of the Golden Knights comes down to health. Hertl has been out since late January after undergoing left knee surgery to clean out loose cartilage. McCrimmon told the media that the former San Jose Shark was expected to be in the lineup before the playoffs but noted that they would know more once team trainers examine him. Meanwhile, Jack Eichel continues to ease his way back into the lineup after returning last week and is fresh off a three-assist effort in Saturday’s 5-3 win over the Detroit Red Wings.
When it comes to the healthy new arrivals, both Mantha and Hanifin are adjusting to their new surroundings. Mantha has looked to add a physical dimension to the club’s current No. 2 line alongside Chandler Stephenson and Brett Howden. He took a high-sticking double-minor less than two minutes into his Vegas debut last Thursday but has settled down since then. Hanifin, meanwhile, had an impactful Saturday night, dishing out two assists and finishing with a plus-3, as he continues to build chemistry with Alex Pietrangelo.
Medium-Term Deadline Impact
Let’s assume that the Golden Knights hold onto a playoff spot, mainly because a postseason miss would require a whole other slate of articles.
Regardless of what happens over the season’s final 18 games, any first-round series that Vegas finds themselves in promises to be a challenge. They would need to put forth a significant late surge to overtake the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers in order to secure home-ice advantage, so it appears as though the club will start the postseason on the road.
With that said, there is some scary potential here. The return of Hertl is likely to see the 30-year-old debut as Vegas’ No. 2 center, which would bump one of Stephenson or William Karlsson to the No. 3 role and the other to the wing. Throw in the imminently-returning William Carrier, and there is no shortage of depth up front.
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You’ll notice I didn’t even mention Stone. Skeptical fan theories aside, the captain’s lacerated spleen injury is not merely a cap manipulation tactic by the organization. In fact, there remains plenty of doubt as to whether the 31-year-old will be ready to hit the ice come playoff time. If he is, however, then Vegas has to be viewed among the favorites to win a second consecutive Cup.
Long-Term Deadline Impact
It seems odd to look beyond this season when so much of the focus of these moves hinges on competing for a second consecutive Cup. However, they also could not have been made without the front office having a clear plan moving forward. Even with a pretty good salary cap bump anticipated this off-season, the Golden Knights’ cap situation is unsustainable.
For Vegas, the cost of the three deadline deals almost certainly hasn’t been fully realized as of yet. Mantha looks like a pure rental, while Hanifin presents a more interesting conundrum. The pending unrestricted free agent is due a big contract this summer but was also likely acquired with more than the remainder of the 2023-24 season in mind. Retaining the former Calgary Flame would come at a cost, likely the ability to keep Martinez and possibly also requiring the organization to bid farewell to free agents like Stephenson and Jonathan Marchessault. This is especially true considering the Golden Knights are presently on the hook for just $1,237,500 of Hanifin’s contract thanks to retained salary in the trade.
Then you have the Hertl factor. Just as adding Hanifin seemed to clear a path for Martinez’s departure, Hertl likely signals the end of Stephenson’s tenure in Nevada. However, even with San Jose retaining 25 percent of Hertl’s cap hit through the remaining six years of his contract, he is still on the books for $6.75 million each year. Ironically, the $4 million difference between Hertl’s cap hit and Stephenson’s current $2.75 million hit almost exactly matches the projected cap increase for next season.
The 2024-25 roster already carries a projected cap hit of over $78 million on 19 players, and that’s with letting go of all pending UFAs and renouncing rights on restricted free agent Pavel Dorofeyev. Retaining Hanifin would eat up the majority of the remaining $9 million in cap space, so something has to be done to build a full roster. Given the organization’s cutthroat, business-like approach to roster-building, players like Karlsson, Ivan Barbashev, Zach Whitecloud and Nicolas Hague could all be candidates for a trade to create cap space.
While the circumstances seem extreme, this is nothing new for the Golden Knights. The “cap be damned” management style of recent years means that tough decisions have to be made just about every summer. And yet, McCrimmon and company manage to pivot their way into compliance every year. In the meantime, though, fans can enjoy a shamelessly loaded roster as they make a run at another Stanley Cup this spring.
