Jets’ Forward Corps More Defensively Sound for 2023-24 Season

The Winnipeg Jets finally have something they have not had for the last six seasons. They have a top-nine that possesses a true two-way style of play. The Jets have been hindered by many star forwards having zero defensive game. This has led to their forward core producing a high quality and quantity of chances but giving up even more in their own end, according to Money Puck. This past season, their main forwards broke even in terms of scoring chances, but the previous two years before that, they weren’t good defensively.

It looks like the Jets have finally addressed some of these problems by trading Pierre-Luc Dubois and buying out Blake Wheeler. Even more, an emphasis on improved defensive play has been the focal point in adding Alex Iafallo, Gabriel Vilardi and re-signing Vladislav Namestnikov.

The Subtraction of Dubois and Wheeler

In his prime, Wheeler was a two-way force that the Jets failed to properly build around. Unfortunately, father time is undefeated, and over the last three seasons, he’s been a black hole on defense. As Wheeler aged, another important element to his game — his foot speed — also declined, leading him to become closer to a third-line forward than a top-line forward. Moving on from the former captain will allow the Jets to play younger proven players like Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti.

As for Dubois, he has a reputation for being a “big-bodied, two-way centre.” However, while he is a great and consistent driver of offence, his two-way play is closer to average. Unlike Wheeler, Dubois is at the peak of his career and possesses plenty of other skills, such as penalty differential and power-play scoring. The combination of these skills has enabled Dubois’ loss to be felt more due to his budding star potential compared to Wheeler. However, there is a positive in this situation, as the Jets’ forward core has an opportunity to be more well-rounded defensively moving forward.

The Duo of Former Kings Are Above Average Defensively

Vilardi is coming off of an elite defensive season that saw him get some Frank J. Selke talk from certain analysts due to preventing scoring chances better than any other Kings forward. While his offensive play driving wasn’t nearly as good as Dubois’, Vilardi has the potential to overcome some of that. He finished at an extremely high rate, converting more chances than he should have based on his quality of scoring chances. This, combined with his elite penalty differential and getting more consistent at creating scoring chances, could make him a future core piece for Winnipeg.

On the other hand, Alex Iafallo was also very good in terms of preventing chances and goals scored. Iafallo uses his exceptional speed to be an excellent penalty killer. He also brings positional depth by being able to play on any forward line, which has not been seen in Winnipeg since Andrew Copp. Personally, I would love to see him somewhere in the top-six so the Jets can run three legitimate scoring lines. However, it is also likely he could form head coach Rick Bowness’ checking line with Adam Lowry and Namestnikov.

The Re-Signing of Namestnikov

His Wildcard Ability

Namestnikov is a huge wild card, in my opinion. His floor is a defensively solid bottom-six forward who Bowness will love. His highest ceiling is a utility-type role player similar to Copp, Iafallo or Connor Brown. The problem is I think Namestnikov is in the middle of those two projections and probably closer to his floor. He has been very inconsistent when moving from team to team over the last three seasons.

If you take away Namestnikov’s best game as a Jet, where he scored three points, he had seven points in 19 games. This is extremely cherry-picked on the surface. But I bring it up due to most of his playing time coming alongside Nikolaj Ehlers. Is Namestnikov as productive without Ehlers on his wing? I really don’t think so, but if the Jets want to try to spread the wealth on offence, I would not be against Namestnikov taking some turns in the Jets’ top-six.

How “Vlady” Affects Potential Line Combinations

• Namestnikov – Mark Scheifele – Ehlers
• Kyle Connor – Vilardi – Cole Perfetti
• Iafallo – Lowry – Nino Niederreiter

Ideally, this would be my top-nine for the Jets. Connor and Ehlers both love handling the puck, so it makes sense to keep them on separate lines. Connor and Scheifele have been atrocious on defense together, so keeping them apart is something that needs to be done. Namestnikov, Perfetti and Vilardi would provide two-way play in the top-six, while Scheifele and Ehlers would prop up Namestnikov’s shortcomings on offence. The third line would have Adam Lowry down the middle and two legitimate secondary scorers in Iafallo and Niederreiter.

What Does It All Mean?

Could 2023-24 finally be the season where Connor Hellebuyck doesn’t face the second-most shots in the league? If the Jets are willing to sacrifice a little bit of offence, I think so. Furthermore, this type of approach allows the Jets to run a forward core that lies somewhere between the skill of the Seattle Kraken and the talent of the Vegas Golden Knights, meaning they could run four deep lines of forward combinations and not have to worry about sheltering any line. While the Jets don’t have the star power of Vegas in Jack Eichel or Mark Stone, I would rather have Winnipeg’s forward core as opposed to Seattle’s. Given the Kraken’s success last season, this is a huge reason for optimism heading into the 2023-24 season for the Jets and their fans.

All penalty differentials, finishing rates, line combinations and scoring chance/two-way metrics were taken from Money Puck.