The Winnipeg Jets have the potential to be a force to be reckoned with in the NHL this year. That is if all goes right with some positive regression from the power play and star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck the Jets could shift into a bonafide playoff team. Positive regression aside one of the next best options to help improve the team’s play would be to split up Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor in the top-six. Despite their blistering individual skill, it might be best to switch up a couple of players on the top two lines.
Winnipeg’s bottom six is locked and loaded at the moment being carried by the third-line. While the fourth line has enough depth to chip in as well. Having the third line be so successful has gotten rid of a lot of potential line combinations in a good way, as now it seems like the only thing Winnipeg has to do is figure out the two best trios of forwards out of the five or six players currently in the top-six with Scheifele, Connor, Alex Iafallo, Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti being mainstays.
Loading Up Hasn’t Really Worked.
The talent of Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor cannot be denied. Their combined skill has combined for an extremely large volume of goals. However, even with all of this offensive output, the Jets are still routinely out-chanced and don’t break even in terms of goals with these two on the ice together, according to MoneyPuck’s line statistics. So far this year, the two have scored four goals and gave up three when on the ice together. In the 2022-23 season, they scored 27 and gave up 29. While in the 2021-22 season, they scored 13 and gave up nine. Lastly, in the 2020-21 season, it got worse as they scored 15 and gave up 19.
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Meaning that over the last three-plus seasons they have scored 59 goals as a duo while giving up 60. Now imagine how many goals against they would have if Hellebuyck wasn’t a brink wall every season? Obviously, the two players use their skill to score routinely on the power play and are a net positive when that is taken into account. But a truly good team doesn’t have a top line that gets outscored when they are on the ice at even strength. For this reason, I really do think Connor should be put on the second line away from Scheifele.
The Hope of Getting Ehlers Going
If I was going off the eye test, I think the best option would be to place Ehlers as Scheifele’s new partner (with Perfetti as the other winger). I know Ehlers hasn’t played up to the incredibly high standards that he usually does so far, but having your two best shooting options in Connor and Scheifele on the same line doesn’t work unless you have an elite playmaker to set them up (which the Jets don’t).
The same MoneyPuck statistics used above back this up, as well as, over the last three-plus seasons, the duo of Ehlers-Scheifele has outscored their opposition 31-18 at even strength. While the duo of Ehlers-Connor has outscored the opposition 34-22. While this isn’t an Ehlers propaganda piece (I’ll be writing one of those later), the Jets clearly have three elite forwards a their disposal and they routinely are using the wrong combination of them on the top line. Perfetti has also quietly been one of the Jets’ best-scoring forwards in terms of ice time. Enabling him to gain more ice time on the top line could allow him to break through with Ehlers and Scheifele.
Reducing One Players Ice Time Will Benefit Defensively
Scheifele and Connor are absolutely atrocious defensively. The two have scored so many goals and points over the last three-plus seasons at even strength, yet they are both net negatives. According to MoneyPuck’s player statistics, when Scheifele has been on the ice since the 2020-21 season, his even-strength goal differential is -2. Connor comes in even worse at -4.
Hypothetically, the Jets will never roll out a top line that doesn’t have one of these players on it so by just moving one of them to the second line and reducing their ice time by 3-4 minutes will benefit the Jets via addition by subtraction. I know a lot of people don’t like the prominent use of data and statistics like these but they are so glaring because again imagine how much worse they would be without Hellebuyck in net for the Jets.
Ol’ Reliable Isn’t Even Reliable
Is a top-line even a “top line” if they only break even in terms of goals at best? No, they are not. Even with Scheifele and Connor combining for three goals and three assists in the last game they played together against the St. Louis Blues, it is time to split them up for a more balanced and defensively sound top-six. Winnipeg has routinely been outscored and out-chanced when these two are a duo, and it’s time to do something about it. I’ve routinely beat the Ehlers drum, but he hasn’t been his best. With the amount of the depth the Jets have and Gabe Vilardi just starting to skate again, Winnipeg needs to get its ducks in a row before they end up ruining a really good chance to contend.