In February 2020, the New York Islanders acquired and extended Jean-Gabriel Pageau to a six-year contract that ends after the 2025-26 NHL season. In his time as an Islander, he has been a key contributor to the team’s middle six and special teams and has been on two deep playoff runs that have ended in the Eastern Conference Final. However, he is now 31 years of age and seems to be losing his role on the team.
Why Move on From Pageau?
It feels as if each season there are new linemates Pageau plays with. This season his time has been split between Julien Gauthier, Simon Holmstrom, and Oliver Wahlstrom. Last season he also played with Zach Parise and Hudson Fasching, and the season before that it was Josh Bailey and Kyle Palmieri. As well, he has had four different coaches in his past five seasons, showing he has yet to get comfortable in any system and line combination.
Being just 31 years of age, he is still in a position to contribute to a competitive team. His $5 million cap hit is a lot, but if retention is added or salaries are offset in a trade, there will be a line out the door to obtain a player like him. For the Islanders, moving on from a player like Pageau who truly embodies the Islanders’ gritty, hard-to-play-against brand of hockey would be a big loss. But, they have Ruslan Iskhakov waiting in the wings. Trading him would be difficult, but his potential replacement would fill in right away.
Iskhakov has a similar profile to Pageau. The two are both undersized, lightweight centers that have a lot of speed. Neither have been known for their elite shooting talent but still possess sneaky wrist shots. Slotting in as the third-line center would replace a right-handed forward with a lefty, something the Islanders could use more of. Losing a great penalty killer like Pageau would be a massive loss, but the Islanders’ penalty kill has been bad this season anyway, and overhauling the strategy may best be done with some new faces. With Simon Holmstrom becoming one of the league’s best penalty killers at just 22 years old, it may be a good time to look toward the future and allow the two youngsters to gain chemistry now.
Potential Trade Options
Moving Pageau will not be an easy move to facilitate because of his cap hit, but also his 16-team no-trade clause for this season and the next. With half the league out of the picture, the Islanders’ options are limited. As well, his list is private, meaning all is speculation unless a move did occur. With there likely only being a handful of teams where he could next end up, the search to find a suitor will be challenging, but not impossible.
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His value is hard to gauge, but factoring in his contract, performance, and previous value, he could likely fetch anywhere from a third-round pick to a second-round pick with a roster player or young prospect. With retention, which is likely to be involved, his value would increase. As well, he could be a throw-in for a trade to make salaries work.
Nashville Predators
If there is one thing fans know, it is that former head coach and now general manager of the Nashville Predators, Barry Trotz, loves Pageau. From post-game pressers to relying on him in crucial situations, Pageau was exactly what Trotz wanted in his players. As well, the Predators are in the Western Conference, leaving Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello comfortable sending him there.
A trade would make sense for the Predators for a few reasons. The team lacks center depth and could be sending out center Thomas Novak this season. Bringing in Pageau would add stability to the center core, as well as strengthen the penalty killing unit that sits bottom-10 in the league with a 76.19% success rate. With top young forwards Luke Evangelista, Joakim Kemell, and Matthew Wood expected to develop in the NHL during the final few years of Pageau’s contract, it may be wise to bring in a center who can be a stable source of guidance and maturity. If salary presents an issue, the Islanders have all three retention slots open, posing as a resource to get an impact center for a cheap cost.
Seattle Kraken
At the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken were heavily connected to Islanders fourth-line center, Casey Cizikas, for his maturity, defensive capabilities, and mentorship. Lamoriello opted to protect him over Jordan Eberle, losing him while saving Cizikas in the process. At the time there were rumors that negotiations between Cizikas and Seattle were approaching the $5 million salary mark. While nothing was confirmed, they evidently found value in acquiring a center like Cizikas. With the Kraken expected to shop their pending free agents, such as center Alexander Wennberg, this trade deadline or summer will be a time when they could look to add more mentorship to their center group.
With franchise center Matty Beniers struggling this season, having just eight goals and 23 points in 49 games, it may be time to bring in another veteran center to guide him. The team currently has Yanni Gourde, who is a free agent after next season. Aligning Pageau and Gourde with the team’s future top centers, Beniers and Shane Wright, will be of value to the franchise. The Kraken have shown no hesitancy to prioritize development with Wright, having him learn and develop in the American Hockey League. Acquiring Pageau will lessen the load on Wright once he enters the NHL, maybe even letting him develop on Pageau’s wing before learning to center a line on his own. Additionally, Seattle is expected to have a lot of cap space this summer, making a Pageau trade even more feasible.
Arizona Coyotes
Staying in the theme of the Western Conference, the Arizona Coyotes share many parallels with Seattle and Nashville. All three teams have young forwards entering the NHL soon and are prioritizing development over current success. With the team projected to have over $30 million in cap space heading into the offseason, Pageau, if anything, will help them hit the cap floor. Also, they have forwards such as Dylan Guenther, Josh Doan, and Conor Geekie expected to have full-time NHL roles soon, and could use mentorship from someone like Pageau.
In a role with Arizona, Pageau could have an offensive resurgence similar to that of Nick Bjugstad who currently has 10 goals and 27 points in 53 games. While the Coyotes are the team most likely to be on Pageau’s no-trade list, making a trade happen could be what is best for the team’s success as well as for Pageau.
Looking at Pageau’s career performance on a stat sheet will not tell the whole story, and other teams know of the value he provides. Moving forward, he is likely not to be traded, but if anyone is to go, he would be one of the more likely options. With the Islanders tight to the cap, he very well could be a casualty in a trade, just like Anthony Beauvillier was last season.
