The 2024 NHL Trade Deadline is only a day away now, and things have been hectic. We have seen tons of trades over the past week, with a lot of big-name players coming off of the Hockey Writers Trade Bait Board. This means that the Toronto Maple Leafs need to get their ducks in a row and look at who is available to help improve their club before it is too late.
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One team that comes to mind as a potential trade partner for the Maple Leafs is the Washington Capitals. They had a down year this season and found themselves out of the playoff picture. As a result, they may want to look at a few of their players and move out some money to do a small retool in hopes of having a bounce-back year in 2024-25. There are a few names on the Capitals roster that may be of interest to the Maple Leafs. If you look at what their team needs, it would be a right-handed shot and potentially a depth forward. So, let’s look at a few options for the Maple Leafs to take a look at from the Capitals.
Nic Dowd
Nic Dowd would address the Maple Leafs’ depth-forward need. He is a fourth-line player who excels on the penalty kill (PK), which the team desperately needs help with. They are currently 20th in the NHL at 77.7% and have the second-worst PK percentage for teams in the playoffs next to the Winnipeg Jets (77%). Dowd can help change that; he does extremely well on the PK for the Capitals and can help the Maple Leafs when the postseason starts.
Dowd isn’t the most offensive forward, but he can score you 20 points per season. This season, he has eight goals and eight assists for 16 points in 45 games. The reason you get a player like Dowd is for his defensive abilities. He has an 89.8% defensive zone start percentage (dZS%), which means that 89.8% of his zone starts are in the defensive zone. This includes all types of situations but is predominantly influenced by his PK skills. Unfortunately, he has been placed on the injured reserve list due to an injury, but it shouldn’t stop him from being moved before the deadline.
Nick Jensen
Nick Jensen may be a sleeper pick for the Maple Leafs to target, but the fit is there. He is a right-handed shot that can play alongside any of the left-handed shots that the team has. He could be a replacement for what Justin Holl brought to the Maple Leafs lineup last season. He typically blocks more shots than he throws hits, which is an interesting asset. However, when the playoffs come around, you need to put your body on the line, and Jensen will do that. Some may describe him as a Chris Tanev-lite, someone who has no regard for their own body and just cares about the crest on his chest.
Jensen could be moving up the trade target list for Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs. There have been some big names taken off the board, and while Toronto doesn’t have a ton of assets, they should be able to make this deal work. Jensen’s cap hit is $4.05 million per season for two more seasons after this one. If the Maple Leafs look at their Jake McCabe trade from last season’s deadline, they got him with term and the Chicago Blackhawks retained 50% of his salary. It may make things a bit of a challenge, but there is a possibility that the Capitals retain 50% of his cap hit, which would up the asking price.
Joel Edmundson
Joel Edmundson could be the most interesting player on this list. He is left-handed and can play on the right side, which may seem like a deterrent, but the fit may be perfect. He was Morgan Rielly’s defence partner when they both played in the Western Hockey League (WHL) for the Moose Jaw Warriors. This could bring some comfortability to the top pairing, which could allow Rielly to still push the play and join the rush and Edmundson to stay back and be the defensive defenceman.
Edmundson is a 6-foot-5, 221-pound defenceman who plays a physical brand of hockey. He may not drop the gloves often, but he does put his body on the line night in and night out. This season, he missed a significant amount of time due to an injury, but in his 44 games with the Capitals, he has one goal and five assists for six points. Along with that, he has 49 blocks and 59 hits and typically averages over 100 in both categories. When he was traded to the Capitals from the Montreal Canadiens, his salary was retained by 50%. This means that if he is dealt, he can have his salary retained one more time to bring that $1.75 million to $875,000, and that would help the Maple Leafs a ton.
Big Deadline Deal
Now to the good stuff: these two teams have all the pieces to make a blockbuster trade by this trade deadline. The Maple Leafs are looking for defensive help and a depth forward. Treliving likes a big, strong blue line and will want to push his touch on the defence core. The Capitals are looking to shed some cap space and get a bit younger to make a splash or two in free agency. To do that, they need to trade a few players, and these three players listed could be on the move.
Trade Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs Receive: Joel Edmundson (50% Retained), Nic Dowd (50% Retained) & Nick Jensen
Washington Capitals Receive: T.J. Brodie, Nick Robertson, Noah Gregor, Dmitry Ovchinnikov, 2024 third-round pick (NYI), 2024 fifth-round pick (VAN) & 2024 seventh-round pick (OTT)
This trade makes sense for both teams; the Maple Leafs are addressing two big needs while simply improving their defence core. Acquiring both Jensen and Edmundson spreads out their pairings a bit more. The pairings would be Edmundson/Rielly, Jake McCabe/Jensen, Simon Benoit/Timothy Liljegren or Ilya Lyubushkin, and Conor Timmins and Mark Giordano as the extras. This allows for a deeper blue line and gives the lefties and righties pairings besides the top duo; however, they have previous experience together, which will make it easier. Additionally, Dowd can slot into the bottom six and boost the PK as well as the defensive mindset of his line. I would have him replace Pontus Holmberg come playoff time and put him on a line with David Kampf and Ryan Reaves.
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We saw multiple moves at the trade deadline by former GM Kyle Dubas, and it almost felt like too many new faces. In this trade, they would be getting three new players, but they are all familiar with each other, which should help them become acclimated to the rest of the group. The faster that happens, the faster they build chemistry and can go on a run for the Stanley Cup.
As for the Capitals, they get younger and take on Brodie for the duration of the season. It is obvious that Washington wants to stay as competitive as possible within the next season or two, and this trade can help that. Noah Gregor replaces Dowd as the depth forward who is reliable on the PK. He is a restricted free agent (RFA) at season’s end and could find a new home in DC. The Capitals would need to take on Brodie’s contract to make the money work; however, he is an unrestricted free agent (UFA), and I don’t see a world where they re-sign him, meaning he will be allowed to walk into free agency.
They also get Nick Robertson in the deal; there shouldn’t be a need to say much about him. He is a young, talented player who hasn’t been given a fair shake within the Maple Leafs organization. A change of scenery and role could do him very well, and since he probably won’t have a role after the deadline, it only makes sense to trade him. The other assets going to the Capitals are three draft picks, all in 2024, and in the third, fifth, and seventh rounds. I don’t see the Maple Leafs giving up their first-round pick, but they may be okay with dishing out a few more picks in the later rounds. As for Dmitry Ovchinnikov, he is a Russian-born player who should fit in fairly well within the Capitals organization. He has the potential to become a fringe NHL player within the right organization and system.
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As for the overall trade, the money works, leaving the Maple Leafs with $1.1 million in cap space to make another move if needed. As for the Capitals, they only had 43/50 contract spots used before this trade, so they can take on more players than they are giving up. They also have two retention spots left to use, and based on Edmundson and Dowd both being rentals, the retention factor has to come into play to make the money work. This trade would leave the Capitals with $5.1 million in cap space and the potential to make more moves.
These teams seem like a perfect match for each other at this season’s trade deadline. It is hard to put together mock trades that meet both teams’ needs; however, I feel this one does that fairly well. Only time will tell, but the good news is we only have a day left to find out what the Maple Leafs and Treliving are going to do to improve the hockey club.
