Forty-one games down, 41 left to go. The Tampa Bay Lightning reached the halfway mark on the season following their 7-3 loss to the Boston Bruins on the road. This season has featured a level of turbulence the team has not seen in some time. Even with the slide to end last season, it’s not a level of performance that anyone has gotten used to quite yet – nor do they want to.
Since we’re at this point in the season, it’s time to do an in-depth evaluation and reflect. There will be a look at a couple of positives and a couple of negatives.
It’s Been Better with Vasilevskiy
It doesn’t always feel that way, but it has. In November, the Lightning finished 6-7-2 with a points percentage of .467. Yes, Andrei Vasilevskiy did play in two of those three losses to end the month, but the point to be made here is what has happened since he started to get going.
In December, the Lightning went 8-6-0 with a points percentage of .571. Take away the 8-1 blowout loss to the Dallas Stars on Dec. 2, and they have a points percentage of .533. On top of that, the minus-4 goal differential for the month becomes plus-3 when you remove that game. Vasilevskiy has been strong past regulation as well – stopping all eight shots he’s seen in overtime.
The Lightning haven’t soared to the top of the standings since Vasilevskiy returned, but he’s done well for someone who just returned from recovering from back surgery a little over a month ago and the team improved in the win column. “Better” is certainly an appropriate word to use here.
Star Power is Still There
The Lightning have found a way, at least individually, to keep things exciting. Nikita Kucherov is in the hunt for the Art Ross and the Hart Trophy – and has been named an All-Star. He’s on pace for a career-high 135 points – his current career high is 128. He’s also on pace to score 50 goals for the first time.
While not the favorite for the Norris, Victor Hedman is getting himself back into finalist territory. He’s on pace for 80 points for the second time in his career and scoring double-digit goals for the ninth time. It’s a good sign that he’s aging gracefully.
On the top of stars in their 30s, Steven Stamkos is showing he’ll go all out for the Lightning regardless of what next year brings. So far, he averaging a point per game – 38 points in 38 games he’s played. If he doesn’t miss another game, that’s a 79-point pace. It’s not what we’ve seen in the past but at 33 years old, and with the injury history, there are very few complaints.
There have been individual performances that bring excitement during the chaos. These performances have been why the Lightning have stayed in the hunt for a playoff spot this season. Health is going to continue to be a major factor as a result, but at the very least, it gives Lightning fans something to continue tuning in for day in and day out.
The Lightning Are Between a Rock and a Hard Place Defensively
While the win against the Minnesota Wild was nice, it’s clear immediate help on defense isn’t coming in-house. It doesn’t mean young guys like Jack Thompson and Declan Carlile don’t have a future on this team. Far from it. Keep an eye on them going forward.
But the Lightning need more experienced guys for the immediate help they need – even beyond Sergachev and Cernak eventually coming back healthy. But then there’s the question beyond that. What can the Lightning do to get this help? While they’re not in a position where they should sell at the trade deadline, they aren’t in the position to be buyers either.
They can’t afford to give up more draft capital. They also can’t afford to give up any young blood they have in the minors, like the aforementioned Thompson or Carlile. Having these options helps ease the salary cap. Speaking of that salary cap, the constraints mean someone’s salary has to be traded away to take on another. The Lightning would have to do some serious research to find a team looking to take on one of these contracts that has a genuine upgrade, that’s tradable, and with the right contract, in return.
Lightning Need Every Win at Amalie Arena They Can Get
These road trips aren’t getting any more favorable for the Lightning. Since their 0-3-1 start on the road this season, they have gone 8-9-1. While the road wins in overtime and the shootout were huge, they are not a sign that the fortunes are improving away from home ice.
Looking at the recent road trip, the Winnipeg Jets have done well against the Lightning regardless of arena, but the home crowd certainly helped the Lightning beat the Bruins, who were playing better then than they are now, earlier this season in overtime.
Related: Current Lightning Players’ Successes at the World Juniors
The Lightning are 11-5-3 at home, a points percentage of .658. That’s about 25 wins over a full season with a few more overtime losses mixed in. Realistically, they can amass 50 points or more this season just at home. However, with their performance on the road, they might have to do better than even that for a shot at the playoffs. It would take a winning record on the road the rest of the way to finish with more than 90 points with their current home points percentage.
What’s the second half looking like for road games? Well, here are some key road opponents with their home points percentages in parentheses. They play the Vegas Golden Knights (.750), the New York Rangers (.722), the Florida Panthers (.706), the New York Islanders twice (.650), the Washington Capitals (.579), the Detroit Red Wings (.575), the Toronto Maple Leafs (.556), and the Pittsburgh Penguins (.530).
Even with other favorable competition coming on the road schedule as well (Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens), the Lightning are going to need to walk away with some upsets if they can’t kick it further up a notch on home ice.
Final Evaluation
The stars are getting the job done and the Lightning are very much still in contention. But unless something changes, the second half is going to see them fall further behind. They are on track to finish within the range of 84 to 86 points this season. That won’t be enough to make the playoffs barring something crazy.
What’s likely best for this team is to wait for key injured players to return and work with the roster they currently have. See if they can correct course. Perhaps see what some of the rookie defensemen can do, even if it’s a tryout for the future. It could help the team prepare for a retool. Not a rebuild – big difference.
A retool means keeping the core together – maybe trading off one or two guys to reconfigure the existing structure. Different general manager than now, but let’s look at the last time the Lightning missed the playoffs as an example. Even without the impending expansion draft aspect, there are parallels.
They had a very slow start to the season. In January, they were in the same spot as now. On Feb. 2, they were second to last in the Eastern Conference – so it actually got worse. This is after having just been in the conference final the year before. They made no additions and offloaded Ben Bishop and Brian Boyle. Not every move worked out, but they did land Erik Cernak and shed cap. This set up the Lightning to make moves that won them two Cups.
Sometimes, you have to sacrifice a season to have more great ones. And you never know, these moves don’t necessarily have to go unpunished. That 2016-17 Lightning team that didn’t buy still nearly roared back to make the playoffs – missed by just a point. There’s still the chance this current group can achieve beyond that.
