Despite a first-round exit to the Florida Panthers in five games last season, the Tampa Bay Lightning had impressive individual performances throughout their lineup. The highlight player of the season was their superstar winger Nikita Kucherov, who became the fifth player and first winger in NHL history to record 100 assists in a season.
Related: Kucherov Becomes Just 5th Player to Get 100 Assists in a Season
Furthermore, Kucherov scored 44 goals of his own, giving him 144 points on the season. This effort was enough to win him his second Art Ross Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s leading point scorer. He won the trophy for the first time in 2018-19 when he notched 128 points in 82 games. Following a stellar offensive season, can he match his point totals with captain Steven Stamkos out of the picture?
Kucherov Lost One of His Big Weapons This Offseason
Tampa Bay suffered a significant loss to the forward core with Stamkos this summer, who Kucherov has set up regularly over the years at all strengths. Last season, he assisted on 28 of Stamkos’ goals, 15 of them directly as primary assists. While Stamkos will miss an elite passer like Kucherov dearly in Nashville, his shooting talent elevated Kucherov’s assist totals to an extent.
It appears the two benefited from playing alongside one another, and with time this season, we will see who was the main factor amongst the long-time duo. The difference maker will be how the dynamic of the Lightning’s special teams changes without Stamkos. The team loses one of the best shooters from the right circle in the league while replacing him with a left-handed shot in Jake Guentzel.
While fans will miss Stamkos dearly in Tampa Bay, he was not the primary passing target for Kucherov. That title belongs to Brayden Point, who scored 33 goals assisted by Kucherov, with 26 of them directly from Kucherov’s tape. Point sinks into that bumper position on the top power-play unit and executes perfectly timed plays with the Russian winger for quick strikes. Their work together helped contribute to the highest power play percentage in the league last season.
Another name to look out for is Brandon Hagel, who’s developed chemistry with Kucherov over the past two seasons. While Hagel set up Kucherov for more goals, he was one of the winger’s top passing targets last season. If things don’t click with Guentzel on line one, Hagel can easily slot into that first-line left-wing role.
Jake Guentzel Will Make Up for Stamkos’ Loss
Despite being a left-handed target, the Lightning upgraded in a Guentzel for Stamkos swap. Guentzel can do it all offensively, similar to a Swiss Army knife. He has also proven he can elevate stars through Natural Stat Trick’s line tool. When traded to the Carolina Hurricanes at the trade deadline, Guentzel helped the team’s superstars, including Finnish centerman Sebastian Aho, reach new heights offensively.
Without Guentzel on his wing, Aho notched a stellar 3.12 on-ice goals for per 60 (GF/60) at 5-on-5 in roughly 884 minutes last season. Once Guentzel joined the team, the duo spent about 190 minutes together at 5-on-5, and the results were marvellous. The two scored 3.79 GF/60, a sizable increase once Guentzel joined Carolina’s top line. This impressive scoring pace would have ranked 11th amongst skaters in raw on-ice GF/60 at 5-on-5 last season. On the other hand, Aho’s on-ice scoring rate finishes 83rd-best in the NHL without Guentzel. In other words, Guentzel proved he can elevate star players around him to the next level.
Using the Linemate Tool for Kucherov and Stamkos
Let’s analyze raw on-ice goal rates with Kucherov and Stamkos over the past two seasons, similar to how we did with Guentzel and Aho, with a larger sample size. Over the past two seasons, Kucherov and Stamkos recorded 3.56 GF/60 together at 5-on-5 in about 823 minutes. When Stamkos was away from Kucherov, his on-ice GF/60 saw a tremendous dip.
This sample size isn’t minuscule either. In over 1,300 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time without Kucherov, Stamkos was on the ice for 2.81 GF/60. Meanwhile, isolating Kucherov from Stamkos shows different results. In roughly 1,700 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time without Stamkos, Kucherov had a raw on-ice GF/60 of 3.65, a slight elevation compared to his scoring rate with Stamkos on his line. Is it possible that Stamkos held Kucherov back offensively at 5-on-5 in recent years?
Final Thoughts
In short, it’s fair to say the loss of Stamkos in his current state will not negatively impact Kucherov’s offensive performance this season. The Russian superstar may post similar numbers to his career year with an upgraded linemate in Guentzel. However, Stamkos’ one-timer on the right circle is invaluable to Kucherov’s point totals and the Lightning power play. As long as head coach Jon Cooper can find an alternative for the special teams unit, Kucherov won’t be in too much trouble without Stamkos this season.
