The Toronto Maple Leafs recently locked up one of their veteran defenders for the next five seasons in Jake McCabe. The contract itself is a win as comes in at a reasonable cap hit with some of the money being deferred at the end of his deal. Now the focus shifts to one of their budding young players that’s already taken a big step in his development.
Forward Matthew Knies has shown no signs of a sophomore slump early on this season as he looks even more motivated and driven with his overall play. He’s been a key factor and contributor on the Maple Leafs’ top line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. As a result, talk about his next contract is coming to the forefront.
Which is why, it’s best to make him a priority and get him locked up as soon as possible as his play has shown that he’ll be worth the long-term investment.
Comparing Knies to Other Recent Contracts
As we start to discuss what Knies’ next deal may look like, two players have already been brought up as a comparison that could be used as starting points for his contract. Montreal Canadiens forward Juraj Slafkovsky and New York Rangers forward Alexis Lafreniere earned an annual average value of $7.6 million and $7.45 million respectively on their latest contracts.
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Slafkovsky earned his contract at the end of the second season of his entry-level deal after a 50-point campaign. Lafreniere earned his before the start of this season, being in the final year of a two-year bridge deal where he’s earning $2.325 million and coming off a breakout season where he had 57 points in 82 games. Both players are off to strong starts this season– Slafkovsky being under a point per game and Lafreniere has 10 points– and rightfully earned their deals after slow starts to their career. Slafkovsky had a slow start in his rookie season, but took a big step last season. Lafreniere had to work his way up in the lineup being the first overall pick in 2020 on an already deep Rangers squad when they won the lottery that season.
As with the case of any rookie, Knies had his own ups and downs– learning the ropes in his first season. He has quickly matured as a player and has shown to take a couple of big steps in his second season. He’s up to six goals and seven points in 11 games so far this season. Slafkovsky and Lafreniere are power forwards in their own right, Knies is showing to have the advantage in driving of play and overall impact. Here’s a breakdown of all three players.
| Statistic | Slafkovsky at 5v5 | Lafrienere at 5v5 | Knies at 5v5 |
| CF% | 43.97 | 55.23 | 54.31 |
| xGF% | 43.13 | 51.52 | 55.99 |
| GF% | 63.64 | 52.94 | 55.56 |
| SCF% | 39.05 | 52.80 | 59.55 |
| HDCF% | 39.62 | 46.97 | 63.89 |
| HDGF% | 66.67 | 22.22 | 77.78 |
Knies has the advantage in a number of categories, especially in the scoring chances and high danger chances department as he’s miles ahead of Slafkovsky and Lafreniere given his play style. Those players are making just over $7 million after breakout campaigns and having high ceilings. If it’s any indication, Knies could follow suit and be in their range as an end point with his next deal. His play to start the season is evident of that.
Knies Is on Another Level
The Maple Leafs have to feel really happy about Knies’ play as it gives them reassurance that they can invest in him for the future. Over his last six games he has registered five goals, mostly by doing what he does best, crashing the crease, wreaking havoc and pouncing on his opportunities for a goal.
With a minimum of 50 minutes played, the Knies- Matthews- Marner line rank seventh in xGF per 60 with 4.2 and have a 61.5 goals for percentage. It’s all thanks to the style of play that Knies brings as the one to establish the attack and doing the heavy leg work in the tough areas on the ice. He continues to be a force down low and provides a strong net front presence. Given his added strength and speed, he has the ability to run over opponents or blow by them on a dump and chase. He has that mindset that head coach Craig Berube wants his team to play and it shows when he attacks.
Knies is a possession monster on the ice as he constantly battles and is very dangerous in the offensive zone. The chemistry that they have shown is undeniable. Knies was given an opportunity for the top left-wing spot and he continues to thrive in that role. Given how Zach Hyman and Michael Bunting excelled in that role, Knies has quickly elevated his game to that level in order to keep up and make that line competitive. He’s even getting high praise from Berube, comparing his ceiling to Keith Tkachuk and Bill Guerin.
If Knies can continue with his strong start, there isn’t any reason that he can’t hit the 20, or even the 30-goal mark along with 60-points. Given how he can keep up with elite linemates, earning more minutes and power play time, it’ll help his case with his new contract.
Bridge or Long-Term Deal?
While teams like to play it safe on players that they’re uncertain with on bridge deals as they want to see more, that doesn’t seem to be the case with Knies as he continues to get better with each game.
A bridge deal doesn’t make sense for Knies as he continues to exceed expectations with each game. Seeing as he’s matching production and having more of an impact offensively compared to the other two players as a comparison, having him at around $7- $7.5 million on a long-term deal doesn’t seem like a bad idea.
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Having him at around $5-$6 million– or even under $7million– would be a steal for the Maple Leafs, getting him locked to a seven or eight-year deal is going to be important. With the salary cap continuing to go up, you want to invest in a player that continues to make his mark with the team. With the steps Knies continues to take, he’s worth that investment.
Giving him a long-term deal and having him as a centre piece up front for the future seems to make the most sense.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck.
