When Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Matthew Knies signed his entry-level contract, making him an option for the roster, there was already a buzz surrounding him after his play in college. While Knies would’ve liked to have ended everything on a high note with a collegiate championship, there was nothing more for him to prove as he was a standout every time.
As soon as Knies became a member of the Maple Leafs, it was only a matter of time before he made an impact on the roster and continues to maintain a spot. He quickly adapted and proved that he belonged and looked very impressive in a short amount of time and he carried that momentum into the playoffs. While everything came to an end in the second round due to a concussion, he will be on a mission as he’ll look to carry over the strong play, he had late last season into 2023-24.
As he approaches his rookie season and looking to hold a spot as a top-six forward, Knies should be every bit as impressive as he was last season.
Results Are Consistent
If there’s one thing to suggest that Knies is going to have a strong rookie season, it’s that he’s been consistent every single season he’s played in. While the collegiate level is different compared to the NHL, he made a seamless transition from the United States Hockey League to college showcasing great power, strength and awareness. Knies was a point per game player in two seasons with the University of Minnesota with 75 points in 73 games.
Many will say that Knies’ production last season wasn’t eyepopping compared to that of Logan Cooley and Jimmy Snuggerud as they were the ones carrying the offense last season. While that is true as Knies was third behind both of them, looking at his underlying numbers and even strength production, Knies has seen massive jumps from his freshman to sophomore season.
| Season | EV P1/GP | P1/GP | EV P1 |
| DY+1 | 0.51 | 0.75 | 17 |
| DY+2 | 0.65 | 0.95 | 26 |
Knies saw a major uptick in his even strength production and primary points. While he was on the top line with Cooley and Snuggerud, he wasn’t just a complimentary piece. He had improved his speed to keep up, but it was his ability to protect the puck and constantly engage on the attack that made him an essential piece on that line. The way that he creates chances by utilizing his strength and driving to the middle of the ice is what we saw constantly.
Whether he’s getting a shot off or setting up his teammates, Knies is always involved which has already been on display with the Maple Leafs. In the postseason, he had a five-on-five goals for percentage of 62.50 and a high danger chances for percentage of 61.11, ranking fourth in both categories.
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While he can do a lot of damage with his play along the boards and in the high danger area, he’s also extremely valuable in a penalty killing situation, scoring two short-handed goals. He’s an extremely versatile player that can impact the game in many areas and while it’s a short sample into his NHL career, he has delivered.
Knies’ value for the Maple Leafs has continued to benefit them as he has already gained the trust of head coach Sheldon Keefe, succeeding in every opportunity given to him. The fact that he has the confidence in his play and from the coaching staff is a big reason why he’ll have a successful debut season.
Knies Ready for Top-6 Role
There isn’t any doubt that Knies has played his way onto the Maple Leafs roster. He has gone from a depth player, fighting to keep a spot on the roster, to a player who could see top-six minutes as a rookie in a short amount of time. Heading into next season, there should be no hesitation to put Knies into that role as he has already shown to elevate his play and answer the call.
Knies averaged 13:07 in both the regular season and playoffs. Though, at certain points in the playoffs, that was when he started to get some looks playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner and playing in key situations. He was essential in setting up captain John Tavares in the series clinching goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning as he displayed his strength along the boards to gain possession, establish great body position and to make a slick pass for Tavares to take advantage.
While there have been moments where he did make a mistake, he was able to shake it off and bounce back the following shift. Nothing describes that better than when he scored this insane goal in the postseason after he was out of position on a Florida Panthers goal prior to that.
The fact that Knies already has the stature, skill and creativity to be a consistent offensive producer, he’s just as responsible within his own zone. He’s got great sense and awareness without the puck, tracking down the puck carrier and pressuring them to make a mistake and create a turnover. The Maple Leafs have a player that can be a factor in all three zones. He possesses the ability and strength to not back down to engage in those key board battles as there have been times when players are hesitant to go into the corners and engage in those physical situations.
Knies in Calder Race
If given the consistent minutes to succeed in a top-six role, Knies will no doubt have a strong rookie season.
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However, looking to win the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, might be a long shot. In any other season, he would be in that conversation. But this season’s class is shaping up to be a truly exciting one. With the likes of Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Cooley, Luke Hughes eyeing the award, Knies definitely has some competition.
Though that isn’t to say that Knies can be a top-five or top-10 scorer in this year’s class given his skilled power forward game. While expectations shouldn’t be too high, there should be a jump in his play after he got a taste and showed he can handle the NHL level. For him to get into that 30- 40-point range or even higher, that would be a major success for his first NHL season.
The fact that he has already gained the attention and has the skillset, Knies is poised for a very impactful rookie campaign.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Pick 224.
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