The NHL Trade Deadline always ushers in a wave of buzz and excitement for Toronto Maple Leafs fans, perhaps never more so than this season. Set against the backdrop of an increased urgency stemming from years of postseason disappointments, a genuine optimism resulting from Craig Berube’s system fostering a club that looks playoff-ready, and the pending free agency of Mitch Marner and John Tavares, this trade deadline somehow feels different.
And it should. With March 7 on the horizon and names like Brayden Schenn, Ryan O’Reilly, Scott Laughton and Dylan Cozens being bandied about, the stars are aligning to make this the time for general manager Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs to go all-in. Such a bold stroke would understandably spark trepidation within a franchise boasting a fairly thin prospect pool and an even thinner slate of future draft picks, but there’s a time for conservatism and a time for risk-taking.
Here’s why now is the Maple Leafs’ time to strike.
Toronto Is in Position to Make a Run
There remains plenty of work to be done across the remaining 24 games of the regular season, but things are looking pretty good at the moment. Winners of three straight coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Maple Leafs hold a one-point edge on the Florida Panthers for the top spot in the Atlantic Division (with a game in hand) and have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. Sure, they’ve got some housekeeping issues to address (Chris Tanev’s injury, Auston Matthews’ slump, etc.), but they are ultimately well-positioned for a run at their first non-pandemic division crown since 2000; at a time when their rivals are struggling, no less.
As Toronto enjoys an encouraging stretch of strong play (they’ve won six of their last seven), the teams that could stand in the way of a long playoff run are enduring setbacks of their own. The Boston Bruins are quickly reaching a critical point ahead of the trade deadline, as their underwhelming 62 points in 59 games puts them in a murky middle ground of playoff contention that may well see them opt to sell assets before March 7. The Panthers, meanwhile, are chasing the Maple Leafs but may have to be without Matthew Tkachuk for the foreseeable future. Even the once-surging Ottawa Senators have lost their last five games.
The only division rival who seems to be heading in the right direction is the Tampa Bay Lightning, winners of six straight and firmly in the Atlantic mix with Toronto and Florida. And yet, the Maple Leafs would have to like how they stack up against the 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup champions. They’ve gone 7-2-0-1 against Tampa over the past three regular seasons (they visit the Lightning once more on April 9) and bested them in six games in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs.
Intriguing Available Options
We’ve already seen blockbuster trades involving Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Miller and Jacob Trouba this season, not to mention the Colorado Avalanche remaking their goaltending depth chart. Even still, there could be plenty more to come.
This season seems to offer a disproportionate amount of available star power, particularly up front. With a clear need at centre, the Maple Leafs seem to have numerous options among buzzed-about names on the trade market. Schenn, O’Reilly, Laughton and Brock Nelson would all immediately upgrade Toronto’s depth down the middle. There’s even talk that Rantanen could be flipped again if the Carolina Hurricanes aren’t confident about getting the Finnish winger to sign past this season. While he wouldn’t help at centre, he could provide another dangerous weapon in the forward corps while providing a security blanket if Marner opts to leave.
It’s easy to urge your team to go all in while trying to win in the present, but it only makes sense to sacrifice valuable future assets if there is a clear present upgrade available. In the case of potential trade candidates ahead of this year’s deadline, the Maple Leafs could have the opportunity to acquire the calibre of player that warrants that type of sacrifice.
Maple Leafs Can Bet on Their Scouting Department
What if the Maple Leafs don’t need lofty draft picks to unearth young hockey talent? Matthew Knies was taken in the second round (57th overall) of the 2021 NHL Entry Draft and now has 21 goals as a 22-year-old. Fraser Minten and Easton Cowan, the organization’s two top prospects, were taken 38th and 28th overall in their respective draft years. Even Nicholas Robertson, with three goals and four points in his past two games as he becomes the target of trade rumours, was drafted in Round 2 (53rd overall in 2019).
No, relying entirely on having your scouts mine hidden gems late in the draft is not a viable or sustainable strategy. Yet the cream of the team’s prospect crop has been yielded through the later rounds of late. Not only does it mean that Toronto’s farm system is probably better off than it could be given that they’ve hit on later picks in recent years, but it would also suggest that the front office can consider dealing from its prospect pool and draft assets with more comfort in knowing their recent track record in the late first round and beyond.
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Later draft success offers encouragement for the next generation of the club, but it also helps bolster their collection of trade assets. By finding valuable prospect capital with lower picks, the Maple Leafs have helped mitigate the absence of their 2025 first-round selection (traded away in the Jake McCabe deal) while potentially putting guys like Minten, Cowan, Nikita Grebenkin (fifth-round pick in the 2022 Draft) and Dennis Hildeby (fourth-round pick in the 2022 Draft) on the market.
The Future Is Uncertain
Amidst all the optimistic reasons to go for it this season, the Maple Leafs must also confront a rather depressing one: What if this is the end of the club’s current incarnation as we know it?
Everyone is well aware of the pending free agency of Marner and Tavares, both of whom can sign with any NHL team as of July 1. The loss of one—or both—of those ‘Core Four’ stars would immediately reshape the look of the roster and deprive Toronto of its sturdiest foundational pieces of the past seven years. Beyond simply being under contract, Marner also happens to be in the middle of his prime at the moment, while Tavares is still enjoying a standout season even at age 34.
For as much as seeing Marner and Tavares sign elsewhere this summer seems like a worst-case scenario, another first-round exit would make the prospect of free agency absolutely miserable. If that dreaded scenario were to happen, losing the two star forwards (to say nothing of Knies, a restricted free agent) would be an unappealing prospect, but so would spending big to maintain a roster that hasn’t broken through over the past nine seasons.
If this iteration of the Maple Leafs is to break through and achieve anything beyond a first-round playoff berth, they can’t afford to wait beyond this season to maintain the status quo and then see what Minten, Cowan or a future 2025 or 2026 draft selection might bring.
The thought of losing a future star is scary, and Minten, Cowan and those future first-round picks carry the kind of value that you don’t want to surrender in just any trade. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that this feels like the biggest opportunity for the Maple Leafs in what could be a closing window of contention. The team looks ready to make noise in the postseason and getting some additional help by next Friday could be the exact type of boost they need to take that elusive next step.
