The Montreal Canadiens are headed into the 2023-24 season with some expectations for the team and their players. While some are held to a higher standard and the team isn’t expected to make the postseason this season, there are those who need to also take steps forward so the team can compete in the near future. In regards to the Canadiens and the players, these are some of the best-case scenarios in 2023-24.
Canadiens Qualify for the Playoffs
No team making the playoffs each season is impossible. One team could get a ton of bounces their way, players break out, or the coaching is great. The Canadiens aren’t a bottom-five team this season by my estimation, so they do have a chance with some of the talent they have.
Yes, it would be a bit early for the Canadiens to make it and have any impact in the postseason, but playoff experience and being ahead of schedule isn’t a bad thing. If the team manages to sneak into a playoff spot, that means there were a lot of good things done this season as a team and individually. I don’t think they will make the playoffs this season but will show improvement. It also won’t be a bad thing if they do miss the cut if there’s lots of positives to take away from the season by the young team.
Multiple Breakouts on the Canadiens
The Canadiens have a lot of young players, which means there are a lot of players who have recently entered the league and have yet to really break out. Cole Caufield is the latest to have seemingly broken out despite missing half of last season with an injury. We know his skill level and he will show it this season if he plays the majority of the games.
I am most intrigued by Juraj Slafkovsky. He appears to be in line to start in the top six this season. I like the move because he is a young former first-overall pick and was chosen there for a reason. There’s absolutely no reason to give him fourth-line minutes, and since the Canadiens aren’t going to be a playoff team, there’s no hard in getting a good long look at him in a role they expect him to play in for a long time. Slafkovsky definitely has the tools and the drive in order to step up this season (from “Juraj Slafkovsky shines as Canadiens edge Senators in pre-season action”, Montreal Gazette, Sept. 28, 2023).
On the cusp of breakouts are Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook, and Kaiden Guhle. All will have either top-six or top-four roles with the team and get a good amount of ice time. If all three don’t break out just yet, it’s not the end of the world. But if none do, it might be a bit of a problem.
The Established Core Show Progress
I would peg six players as the core group the Canadiens have established. This includes Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Dach, Michael Matheson, Guhle, and Sam Montembeault. That’s three forwards, two defensemen, and a goalie. It might not be the most ideal core and one that can compete right now, but it will change and get better.
Among these players, I expect to see improvements. The seasons of Caufield and Matheson were halted too early while they were proving to be very strong talents. Caufield was on pace for 46 goals on a bad team at age 21 while Matheson was on pace for nearly 60 points and established himself as the number one defenseman. If Caufield hits 40 goals and 70 points, that’s a great step at just 22 years old. If Matheson can replicate some of what he did last season, produce 50 points, play in all situations, and have a strong season, that’s also exactly what the Canadiens are looking for.
26 goals and 66 points was a career high from Suzuki. He didn’t have Caufield on his wing for half a season and still managed to put up strong numbers. The Canadiens will be better and he should have better linemates for the entire season. 30 goals and 70 points is what should be expected here.
In large roles, Dach and Guhle are bound to put together better seasons. That would also be great for the Canadiens. Whether Dach establishes himself as the second-line center or dominates on the top line because of his chemistry with Caufield and Suzuki, he should be third or fourth on the team in scoring this season. Guhle is being tried on the top pair with Matheson. This means lots of minutes in his future. As for Montembeault, he did play fairly well last season in his situation, but he will have to improve his numbers, not only for himself to get a better contract, but because the team in front of him will also be better. Cayden Primeau and Jakub Dobes could easily take over his role in the coming seasons.
Injuries Don’t Play a Major Part in the Canadiens’ Season
The Canadiens lost a ton of man games last season. While it ensured they wouldn’t be a playoff team and stopped some players from showing their full potential over the course of a season, it also provided opportunity. Many of those players with the opportunity last season will already be getting one in 2023-24. Injuries to players like Slafkovsky, Caufield, and Matheson would only be counterproductive and hurt the team in the future.
Related: 3 Canadiens You Should Lower Your Expectations For in 2023-24
Injuries to players like David Savard, Brendan Gallagher, Tanner Pearson, and Sean Monahan will hurt the Canadiens in another way. It eliminates possible trade deadline trade candidates and the necessary veteran presence in the lineup where they should be. The Canadiens aren’t necessarily injury-prone, it just so happened that everything that could go wrong last season in this regard, pretty much did.
Moves This Season are a Success
For a team that isn’t expected to make the playoffs, the Canadiens have already likely established who they could sell at the trade deadline. This will not only allow them to acquire assets for the future but also open up a roster spot or two for some young players who have shown they deserve an opportunity this season.
Monahan, Savard, and Pearson are three players that are the most likely to be moved this season. The Canadiens missed their chance to trade Monahan last season after a strong start and bounce back. They gave themselves another chance at it this season by signing him to a cheap one-year deal. He can be a rental that gets lots of attention.
Pearson could also be looked at if he can bounce back from the injury he dealt with for most of last season. The Canadiens already used Casey DeSmith to get them a draft pick and Pearson. It would be an even better move if they could get any other asset from the exchange as well in the coming months.
Savard has two years left on his deal, but that doesn’t stop teams from wanting a player with that term or the Canadiens from wanting to trade him. He is a solid defender and not overly expensive for someone who can firmly play in a top-four role. On a contender, he could even be a very good third-pairing shutdown d-man.
A lot can go right for the Canadiens, but a lot can also go wrong. For this team’s sake, the more of these points that come true this season, the better off the organization will be. I am expecting an even more exciting season from the Canadiens and big things are on the horizon.
