The New York Islanders have found themselves a gem. Sure, we’re in the early stages of this new season, but the No. 1 pick of the 2025 NHL Draft, Matthew Schaefer, is a runaway favorite for the Calder Trophy. Should his production continue, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a few Norris Trophy votes.
His campaign to this point has been impressive enough, but if Schaefer were born a couple of weeks later, he would have been eligible for the 2026 NHL Draft. As a September-born, 18-year-old player, he is one of a kind.
Schaefer Joins an Exclusive List
In NHL history, only nine September-born 18-year-olds have recorded at least five points, according to QuantHockey. With seven in as many games, Schaefer is already on that list. Better yet, if he can notch two more points (something he might do in his next game), he’d be the highest-scoring defenseman in that group. A month into his rookie campaign, he’d stand alone.
| Player, Position | Points per Game | Points |
| Matthew Schaefer, D | 1.00 | 7 |
| Brian Bellows, F | 0.83 | 65 |
| Nathan MacKinnon, F | 0.77 | 63 |
| Mario Tremblay, F | 0.62 | 39 |
| Jordan Staal, F | 0.52 | 42 |
| Aleksander Barkov, F | 0.44 | 24 |
| Patrick Marleau, F | 0.43 | 32 |
| Chris Joseph, D | 0.33 | 8 |
| Grant Mulvey, F | 0.15 | 11 |
Of this group, only two have finished as Calder Trophy finalists: Jordan Staal (2006–07, third place) and Nathan MacKinnon (2013–14, first place). Schaefer is poised to be the third. He does a lot more than point-scoring, which will be covered later in this piece, but the numbers are already historic.
Is Schaefer’s Point-Scoring Sustainable?
Since it’s early in the season, the question of sustainability is one that looms large. Is Schaefer’s point-per-game pace too high to maintain, or is he already that potent a scorer? Let’s look at the numbers, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
There are two metrics I like to scope out for sustainability. The first is on-ice shooting percentage, which measures the percentage of shots a player is on the ice for that are going into the net. It’s kind of like regular shooting percentage, but on a wider scale. The other is individual points percentage, which shows how often a player is getting points on the goals that they are on the ice for.
Through seven contests, Schaefer has a 15.29% all-situations on-ice shooting percentage. If that sounds like a big number for a defender, that’s because it is. Among defensemen with at least 500 minutes of ice time last season, that would have put him in first place by a wide margin—the 85th percentile was about 12.00%, for context.
There’s no telling where Schaefer is at by season’s end, but he’ll likely be on the above-average side of that scale. As the quarterback of the Islanders’ power play, combined with the talent, let’s say he indeed finishes in the 85th percentile with a 12.00% on-ice shooting clip.
Now, for individual points percentage. Schaefer has gotten on the scoresheet for 53.85% of the goals he’s been on the ice for, which ranks 11th on the Islanders. This appears to be a lot more sustainable, but is it?
Among the same group of defensemen last season, Schaefer would have been in the 95th percentile. So, it’s not a number that’s destined to decline, but it most likely will. Let’s use the 85th percentile again—an individual points percentage of approximately 45.00%.
Here’s the moment of truth. If we apply these 85th percentile metrics for the rest of the season, and everything else remains the same, Schaefer would finish the 2025–26 campaign with about 56 points in 82 games.
Take that projection with a grain of salt. The assumption here is that every shot is created equal and that the Islanders will maintain 12.14 shots on goal per game with Schaefer on the ice. Still, if he does finish with 56, that’d put him within nine points of tying the all-time record. If a defenseman comes that close to Brian Bellows, a borderline Hall of Fame forward, it’d be quite the accomplishment.
Beyond the Numbers: Why Schaefer’s Run Is Historic
Points are fun. But what Schaefer is doing on the ice beyond those totals is even more fun.
Related: Matthew Schaefer Is Already Proving to Be Islanders’ Defenseman of the Future in Rookie Season
Bo Horvat may be leading the team in points with nine, but the Islanders’ MVP is the 18-year-old. Schaefer is an incredibly gifted skater and puck-mover, which allows him to do basically whatever he wants on the ice. He is a reliable “flow” player, helping his team exit the defensive zone and enter the offensive zone without any headaches.
Schaefer is already a genuine two-way threat. He ranks second among Islanders defenders in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (via Natural Stat Trick), and he’s tied for third in defensive scoring league-wide—only Cale Makar and Lane Hutson have more points.
Schaefer only played 17 non-international games in his draft year. Injured at the World Junior Championship in December 2024 (he was the second-youngest player on Team Canada, by the way), it was a battle to even be in the NHL this season. But he has passed the stats and eye tests with flying colors, poised to be the Islanders’ franchise player for years to come.
