It’s no secret that the New Jersey Devils’ goaltending woes have been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. After heading into the season with Stanley Cup expectations, their .891 save percentage (SV%) is ranked 30th in the league and is the biggest reason they sit in seventh place in the Metro.
With the scarcity of the goaltending market, the consensus has been that the Devils will need to part ways with their premium prospects in order to find a solution…or will they? In comes Nico Daws, who has been a savior, albeit in a very small sample.
The Crisis: Crunching the Numbers
This offseason, general manager Tom Fitzgerald opted to not make a meaningful external goaltending acquisition, putting his full faith in the duo of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid.
Fast forward three months into the season: Vanecek, the team leader in starts, has a dreadful .882 SV%. According to MoneyPuck, his minus-13.4 goals saved above expected (GSAx) ranks 88th out of 89 goalies to suit up this season…only Ilya Samsonov of the Toronto Maple Leafs has been worse (minus-14.4).
Among all 64 goaltenders with a minimum of ten games played, Vanecek ranks 63rd with a .608 SV% on high-danger chances.
Schmid has not been much better. After sporting an .893 SV% in 15 games, he was sent down to the American Hockey League (AHL), where he’s been even worse. In six games there, he’s went 1-1-4 with a .882 SV%.
Schmid’s playoff success seemed to make many forget that Nico Daws has always been the higher-rated prospect, which is why the Devils prioritized his development last season and gave him a full season in the AHL. It had been 622 days since Daws last saw NHL action.
Despite playing on a fairly lackluster Utica Comets AHL squad, Daws was able to churn out a .904 SV% last season and earned a nod to the AHL All-Star Game. Even better, he put up an impressive .920 SV% in six playoff games, including a shutout.
And he did that all before undergoing major hip surgery in the offseason, which is another reason why he was an afterthought for some, assuming that he would not be rushed to the NHL following the procedure.
Well, in the three AHL games he played in his return, he had a .929 SV%. With the Devils in dire need of goaltending help, they decided to recall Daws on Dec. 27.
Why Is Daws Different?
There’s a simple question that many Devils fans seem to have: Why should we believe Daws will yield different results from any other netminder? And to answer that, before even diving into the numbers, I present two responses:
First, you don’t know unless you try. Second, if you do try, it can’t possibly be worse than Vanecek in net…right?!
A common theme with the Devils’ goaltending this season has been letting things spiral out of control. Typically, one goal given up has snowballed into two or three, and that largely speaks to an inability to stop high-danger chances. The Devils are 14th in high-danger chances allowed (382), but the worst in high-danger goals allowed (63). Most teams find around ~50% of their goals against from high danger chances. The Devils? 67.7 percent…
Related: Alexander Holtz Has Earned a Spot in the Devils’ Top Nine
Vanecek’s high-danger save percentage, as mentioned earlier, is an abysmal .608% – 75th of 78 goaltenders. Schmid has been a little better with a .667%, 70th out of 78. None of them come close to Daws’ HDSV% of .824%, which is currently sixth-best in the league.
Obviously, it’s a small sample size. Daws has stopped plus-2.4 goals saved above expected. It’s not among the elites of the league, but it’s slightly above league average. That’s all the Devils need.
The fact that Daws has been the only Devils goaltender to produce a positive GSAx and stop high-danger chances with consistency is grounds to keep giving him the nod and see what happens.
Excluding Daws, the Devils’ goaltending yielded an embarrassing -17.2 GSAx…meaning ~17 goals that should not have been in the back of the net ended up there anyways. If that gets extrapolated over their 42 games played, that comes out to 5-6 more wins, at least. A record of 28-12-2 would find them with 58 points, tied with the New York Rangers for first place (and a game in hand).
That is how detrimental goaltending has been. Even with a ton of injuries and some inconsistencies, the Devils could have still found themselves near the top of the league.
Another reason Daws deserves it is his confidence and health alone. When he got called up, he proclaimed that he was feeling “the best (he’s) ever felt” in regard to his hip surgery. He’s been tremendously poised on breakaways in particular, utilizing his aggressive playstyle to challenge shooters and limit their openings. He even said at one point that he loves breakaways. Something is telling me none of the other goaltenders have said the same thing.
And during his tremendous performance against the Florida Panthers, he even took a shot at the empty net. He just oozes confidence.
Bottom Line for Daws
Vanecek is clearly not the answer to the Devils’ long-term goaltending solution. Daws has always been the higher-ranked prospect than Schmid, and frankly, the Devils have more so prioritized his development track by giving him a full AHL season.
Out of all potential options, Daws is the one with the most likely chance to eventually grasp a starters role. With no better option in sight, the time is now to give him that opportunity. Amidst the frustration from an underperforming season, the reality is that the Devils still have a very young and promising core, especially with the emergence of Simon Nemec. They need to figure out if they have the goaltender to go with that.
Daws probably won’t be worse than Vanecek; in fact, his save percentage in 25 games in 2021-22 (behind a horrendous Devils’ defense) was .893, which is .11 percent higher than Vanecek’s mark this season. And it’s safe to assume that number will improve after his full development year in the AHL. Daws’ current SV% after six starts is .916, which would be the highest save percentage for a Devil since Mackenzie Blackwood in 2019-20 (.915%).
There’s no reason to continue to trot out Vanecek or anyone else. The net should be Daws’ to lose for the foreseeable future.
