The Ottawa Senators are looking to snap their seven-year playoff drought in 2024-25, but to do that, they are going to need to be a much better team in a lot of aspects. General manager Steve Staios did a good job of bringing in players to help out in the areas that were clear struggles, the rest of the work needs to come from the players. Here are the biggest X-factors for the Senators this upcoming season.
Josh Norris Returns to Form
The biggest X-factor is Josh Norris. There isn’t much argument to be had about his importance to the team. In 2021-22, Norris scored 35 goals and 55 points in 66 games, earning an eight-year extension worth an average annual value of $7.95 million per season. To say things haven’t gone as planned would be an understatement.
At the time of signing that contract, he was battling Tim Stutzle in a race to be the future first-line center and the go-to goal-scoring option on the team. The next season didn’t start well for Norris, as in 2022-23, he suffered a shoulder injury, deferred getting surgery, and ultimately needed to get that procedure after re-injuring the same shoulder in January. Norris only played eight games that season. In 2023-24, he was still recovering from his shoulder surgery to start the season, so he missed training camp, preseason, and the first handful of games. He played in 50 games but wasn’t playing to the same level he had shown before, scoring just 16 goals and 30 points in that time. After another injury, he had his third surgery on the same shoulder, which ended his season.
Heading into 2024-25, Norris is expected to be ready for training camp, and his health and performance can drastically change the outlook of this team. With him in the lineup, likely on the wing on the second line, that creates a significant amount more depth as the Senators can have David Perron and Michael Amadio play on the wings on the third line and be a dominant trio with Ridly Greig.
On top of being crucial to the organizational depth, he still has the ability to play to a high level and, while maybe not living up to his cap hit entirely, be an impactful player every night.
Related: Senators’ 2024-25 Forward Lines Projection
Prior to the injury, Norris was looked at as a high-end shooter with good two-way play. The goal-scoring would be a nice addition to the forward group, but with the team’s play last season and the additions made, that isn’t as important as some more balanced defensive play from the top-six group and creating the depth that he does.
Another tough factor when it comes to analyzing Norris, his health, and his contract, is that the uncertainty around him causes the Senators to be pressed for options. If he isn’t healthy and/or isn’t playing to a high standard, it is a hard deal to move, and the Senators could have a more reliable use of nearly $8 million, if he is injured, they can use long-term injured reserve during the season, but can’t make any moves if they expect him to come back. It was the same story in the offseason.
All eyes are on Norris to start the season. He is without a doubt the biggest X-factor on this team for the upcoming season.
Senators Need Results from Ullmark
On paper, it is hard to bring in a better goalie than Linus Ullmark. The Senators have had significant struggles in the crease over the past number of years, and outside of a .917 save percentage (SV%) season from Anton Forsberg, they haven’t had much success at all since the departure of Craig Anderson.
Ullmark has been one of the most consistent goaltenders in the league over the past five seasons and will need to continue that into this season with the Senators. After winning the Vezina Trophy in 2023, it was clear there would be a step back in his play as his numbers were nearly impossible to replicate, but in each of the nine seasons he has played in, there was only one season with a SV% lower than .913.
The Senators’ defensive structure has improved, at least on paper, which should help for some of the goaltending impacts, but according to MoneyPuck, the Senators were a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of team defense. They ranked 14th in the league in expected goals against, which actually ranked higher than the Boston Bruins, who Ullmark played for last season.
The infamous stat that came out of last season for the Senators was that they allowed a goal on one of the first two shots of the game 22 times. As bad as the defense looked at times, that stat falls on the goaltenders and there is no way around it.
If the Senators can get good goaltending and a good season out of Norris, they will have a significantly better shot at getting into the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
