The Florida Panthers are coming off of the Christmas break third in the Atlantic Division after a convincing win over the defending Stanley Cup champions in the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday night (Dec. 23) 4-2. With that victory, they hold a 19-12-2 record with 40 points, tying the Toronto Maple Leafs in points and trailing the Boston Bruins by four points.
However, Florida just got out of a bad slump. Before beating the Golden Knights, they only managed to win one of their last five games, with two of their losses being back-to-back shutouts. And in that time, their in-state rival in the Tampa Bay Lightning has been gaining on them. The Bolts are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games and have a three-game winning streak at the end of the break. Because of that, they trail the Cats by just one measly point. As a result, this is a must-win game for Florida.
Tale of the Tape
This is the first meeting this season between the two clubs with the last meeting being a lopsided 4-1 Panthers victory over at Amalie Arena last season. But ever since meeting in the playoffs in two of the last three years, the in-state rivalry has truly heated up.
In their respective histories, the Panthers have a 16-12-1 edge in wins during the regular season. However, the Lightning have beaten them in their only two playoff meetings, with eight wins compared to just two.
Forwards
Even if they are not as strong as they were in years past, Tampa Bay still has one of the strongest forward cores in the NHL today. Their 2019 Hart Trophy winner in Nikita Kucherov currently leads the league in points with 57 points (23 goals, 34 assists). His goal total is good for third among all players and his assist total makes for second among all players. In addition, their captain in Steven Stamkos is still one of their most dangerous pieces with 35 points (15 goals, 20 assists) on the year. Furthermore, a Panther killer in Brayden Point is starting to heat up as a top forward in the league with 16 goals and 22 assists on the year. Last season against the Cats, he scored four goals and assisted on one other. In his last 10, he’s scored nine goals and assisted on two others.
The Panthers have to find a way to shut down that group but they also have a great setup themselves. They are responsible for the most shots on goal per game in the league with 34.3 a game. Center Aleksander Barkov has shown why he’s one of the best two-way forwards in the game today. He’s currently third on the team in plus/minus with a plus-14 rating and has 32 points (11 goals, 21 assists). Also, Sam Reinhart has been an emerging star in a contract year as he’s fifth in the NHL in goals with 19.
But there’s been a strange enigma with another big name forward on the team. While he continues to drive the play and is playing the same game, Matthew Tkachuk is starting his season slowly with only five goals and 19 assists. Although, in his games against Tampa as a Panther, he’s been piling up points with three goals and five assists through four meetings. After he said he “hates Tampa more now” when he was introduced, this may be the jump he needs to get back into the game.
Defensemen
Defense has been a strong suit for Florida this season. They are currently the fourth-best in the league in keeping pucks out of the net a night with a 2.61 goals-against average per game. They don’t let opponents get shots on net either as they only allow an average of 27.1 shots on goal per game. That makes for the third-best in the league. Their defensemen have been key in making those statistics happen. One of those is their waiver wire acquisition from a few seasons ago in Gustav Forsling, who is currently sixth in the league in plus/minus with a plus-18 rating.
Related: Niko Mikkola Exceeding Expectations for Florida Panthers
But, Tampa is no pushover themselves. Despite being near the bottom in goals against per game and shots against per game, they still have a strong defensive core. This group features Victor Hedman, who is fourth among all defensemen in the NHL in points with 33 and assists with 28 and has dressed for over 1,000 NHL games in his career. So look for the veteran to make some noise in this matchup.
Goaltending
Goaltending has been rocky on both sides. Florida has had some better luck with Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes this season. Currently, he has 15 wins and two shutouts, a .910 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.50 goals-against average (GAA), which makes for ninth best in the league. If he can continue this hot streak, he’ll be enough to shut down the high-powered Lightning.
On the other end, after missing some time due to surgery, the “Big Cat” in Andrei Vasilevskiy has returned to the lineup. But, his stats are not what hockey fans are used to. His GAA is 2.76 with a SV% of .908 with eight victories under his belt. However, he should regain form as the season progresses and show why he’s argued as one of the best active goalies in the league. But, he does not have the best history against his foe from down south. Against the Panthers all-time, he has a 2.95 GAA. In his last two meetings with them, he’s allowed a combined 10 goals in losing efforts.
Can the Cats Walk Away with Two Points?
With how close these teams are to one another, it’s really anyone’s game. But if Florida wants to put a gap between themselves and Tampa, they need to find a way to come away with two points Wednesday night.
Related: 2024 Stanley Cup Contenders: Eastern Conference Stock Report
If they fail to do so, they could drop out of the top three in the Atlantic Division entirely. Granted, you just need to get into the postseason to make a difference. But, this is an Eastern Conference champion team this time around, and the Cats need to act like it to earn their keep.
