The Pittsburgh Penguins went all in this offseason with the addition of Erik Karlsson. The move signaled they were doubling or even tripling down on the aging core with the hopes of making one last run at the Stanley Cup. At 15-13-4 and in seventh place in the Metropolitan Division, the Penguins are in a difficult spot as a teardown looks possible if not likely not only in the offseason but at the trade deadline in a few months.
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A teardown puts them at a crossroads, particularly with Jake Guentzel, their 29-year-old star forward who is a pending free agent after the season. The Penguins ideally sign him to a long-term deal but along with minimal salary cap space to work with, it will be a tall task, especially with the team continuing to struggle in the Eastern Conference.
Guentzel, who has 14 goals and 21 assists this season with 211 goals and 238 assists in his career, is the Penguins’ most valuable trade asset. Trading him will help with a rebuild and both restock the farm system and add younger players to the roster. Eventually, this team must hit the reset button, and dealing Guentzel sends that message but it puts them on track to rebound sooner rather than later.
The New York Islanders are one of the teams that would love to acquire him and add him to their top six. Yet, there are some if not many obstacles preventing them from making the deal.
Penguins Will Avoid Trading Guentzel Within The Division
A classic trade deadline issue for teams is trading a star player to a team that plays in the same division. The Islanders and Penguins are both in the Metropolitan Division and as rivals, rarely if ever are trade partners. For the Penguins, they would prefer to move Guentzel to the Western Conference and see him thrive on a team that doesn’t play them often and isn’t in the same division.
That said, if the best offer comes from the Islanders, it will be hard for the Penguins to avoid trading him there. On top of that, if they can win the trade, it will be all the better as they can look back at the move as one that helped turn their franchise around while putting their rival in a tough spot. Guentzel is a rental and if they fail to win the Stanley Cup with him, they’ll leave the deal empty-handed, especially if they can’t sign him to an extension. Last season, the New York Rangers acquired Patrick Kane in an all-in push for the Stanley Cup and it made their defeat in the first round more devastating. The Islanders would be in a similar spot if they make a splash at the trade deadline.
Guentzel Fits in With The Islanders’ Top Line
The Islanders are having a great season with a 16-8-9 record which is the second-best in the Metropolitan Division. There’s an argument to be made that they are only one or two pieces away from a Cup run. One of their needs down the stretch will be a top-six forward and the question is if a skater like Guentzel checks that box.
He’ll play on the top line alongside Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal while Anders Lee, who has seen a resurgence on that line, would move to the middle of the forward unit. If Guentzel clashes with Barzal and Horvat, it would result in a disastrous trade, one that backfires and sets the Islanders back.
Considering Guentzel’s skillsets, that wouldn’t happen. On the contrary, he’d be the ideal forward to play on the Islanders’ top line. He has the speed and playmaking ability to thrive with the two dynamic skaters and a shot to take advantage of Barzal’s passing ability. On top of that, Guentzel is a versatile skater who can beat an opponent in multiple ways, something the Islanders desperately need for a playoff run. The lack of versatility was on full display in the first round last season against the Carolina Hurricanes and the inability to adapt resulted in their playoff exit. This team has a better offense but this addition would put them over the top.
The Penguins Will Avoid a Rebuild
The Penguins had multiple opportunities to move on from this core, specifically, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang. The three skaters are in their late 30s and still playing at a high level but are a step behind the rest of the Eastern Conference. When the Penguins were eliminated in the 2022 first round in seven games against the Rangers, they could have moved on from Letang, Malkin, and Bryan Rust but chose to extend all three players, a move that forced them to part with key depth skaters.
The current roster not only lacks depth, it also doesn’t have the young talent needed to keep up with the rest of the league. It’s a direct result of their urge to “run it back” and double down by trading away prospects and draft picks for veteran players. This season could be the one where they finally decide to hit the reset button but based on their recent history, they’ll push for the playoffs and the Cup until they can’t.
Lamoriello Must Work With Dubas
Both the Islanders’ general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello and the Penguins’ GM Kyle Dubas have interesting track records and a recent history that will come into play with any type of trade involving the two teams. Lamoriello rarely makes a splash but when the right offer is on the table, he’ll make a move. Dubas meanwhile proved he’s willing to pull out all the stops to upgrade a team at the trade deadline, something he did regularly with the Toronto Maple Leafs. When he was the Maple Leafs GM, he traded Pierre Engvall to the Islanders ahead of the 2023 Trade Deadline and the deal helped improve both rosters for the playoffs. Fast forward to this season and the two GMs might be trade partners once again.
What A Guenzel Trade Might Look Like
When the Islanders acquired Horvat, they sent three pieces to the Vancouver Canucks to complete the trade. Specifically, they moved Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty, and their first-round selection in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. Guentzel would likely field a similar offer from the Penguins.
The Islanders have overlapping issues with the Penguins, specifically, they don’t have a strong prospect pool. That said, they have a lot of young skaters making an impact this season who they could move on from, most notably, Julien Gauthier, Simon Holmstrom, and defenseman Samuel Bolduc. Likewise, they would likely add Oliver Wahlstrom to sweeten any deal considering he has a high upside but has only been used sparingly this season. With this in mind, the Islanders would likely acquire the star skater in exchange for two of the players mentioned above and their first-round selection in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft.
The trade deadline will likely see Elias Lindholm and Guentzel available for teams looking to make a run at the Cup. The two stars will likely be moved for a considerable haul and they will make the upcoming weeks of hockey all the more intriguing.
Do you think Guentzel could be traded to the Islanders? What would it take for the Penguins to move him within the division? Let us know in the comments section below.
