As the Philadelphia Flyers near closer to the start of their 2024-25 campaign, let’s take a look at an individual player who can make a difference. What might 22-year-old Tyson Foerster have in store for them?
Foerster’s 2023-24 Season in Review
Before we dive into what Foerster can provide in 2024-25, we should look at what he did last season. In his rookie campaign, how did the seventh-place Calder Trophy finisher play?
If we look at his stats overall, nothing really jumps off the page. In 77 games, he had 20 goals and 13 assists for 33 points and an even plus-minus rating. Most notably, he averaged 17:16 of ice time with much of it being at even strength—he was a first-line winger.
Related: More Philadelphia Flyers Season Preview Articles
If we take a look at his advanced stats and recall his play via the eye test, that’s where we get a better idea of what he provided. It was a tale of two halves for him, completely shifting gears from the Flyers’ first 41 games to their last 41—let’s revisit.
During his first half, Foerster was a possession machine who gave up virtually zero scoring chances at even strength. With minus-0.61 relative expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60 Rel), he ranked fourth among NHL forwards with at least 500 minutes of ice time from Oct. 10 to Jan. 10—that’s the 97th percentile. However, he had less than desirable individual offensive numbers, scoring just five goals and 16 points in 40 contests at all strengths of play. Still, he ranked ahead of teammates Owen Tippett and Joel Farabee in even-strength relative expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60 Rel) by a narrow margin.
The second half of the season is when everything flipped for Foerster. His on-ice stats crumbled, falling to well-below-average marks in xGF/60 Rel (minus-0.33) and xGA/60 Rel (0.23), but he scored a ton of goals. His on-ice metrics being poor likely had a lot to do with the Flyers’ center debacle following Sean Couturier’s regression, who Foerster developed some chemistry with. Despite not having a true first-line centerman by his side, he scored 15 goals (but just two assists) in his final 37 contests. Doing most of his scoring at even strength, his 12 tallies in that environment tied him with star scorers such as Sam Reinhart, Cole Caufield, John Tavares, and others.
Can Foerster Take the Next Step?
Foerster is a big mystery entering 2024-25, especially now that Matvei Michkov is on the roster and the team is presumably at 100 percent health. The former is one of the bigger wildcards for the Orange and Black in the sense that how he might play is sort of unpredictable.
There’s good reason to believe Foerster can build off of his rookie campaign—that part should be mostly agreeable. But how he will play and what his strengths could be aren’t certain. Is he a low-event player who can consistently win his top-line minutes, or is he a high-end goal-scorer who will only get better now that he gets to play with more talent?
The answer to that is, quite possibly, a little bit of both. I’ve talked about how well both he and Couturier meshed as well as the benefit a player like Michkov would bring to them. Not only would Foerster theoretically continue to dominate puck possession on this first line, but he’d also score as he did in the second half due to the shiny new toy being added to the mix. Regression regarding the first-half on-ice stats is being assumed here, but there’s nothing to suggest a trio like this wouldn’t overwhelm the opposition on the scoring chance front.
Now, there’s no guarantee that this line comes to fruition, or even that Foerster will play heavy even-strength minutes again (though that part seems likely). But when the added talent as well as Foerster’s natural progression is considered, a big 2024-25 campaign could be ahead. The expectation shouldn’t be that he doubles his last point total or anything, but a more polished player who punishes the opposition more often can very well be in the cards.
The youngster has arguably the best shot on the team but just didn’t get to use that much last season. When he was constantly battling for pucks in the offensive zone and keeping plays alive early in his campaign, it was excellent for his analytics but not his scoring output. His talent got to flourish more toward the end of the season, but it was still somewhat restricted due to the players around him. With Michkov in the equation? That could change everything.
The raw talent is what is most inspiring with Foerster. He can shoot a puck as well as anyone on the team but needs open space to do that. Ideally, he’s looking at a more spaced-out offense when the Flyers have the puck. He most definitely made teams pay when that was the case.
Foerster is one of several young Flyers players who could take charge this season and make a difference. In the last year of his entry-level deal, he’ll have something to prove.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
