Despite the Philadelphia Flyers‘ status as a rebuilder yet being a playoff team, only one of their several rookies this season received a single vote in the NHL’s poll amongst their writers for early Calder Trophy voting. That player was not 22-year-old Tyson Foerster. Among 14 voters, he did not get as much as a fifth-place vote.
Related: Flyers’ Foerster Ready for a Break Out in 2023-24
Considering the competition this season for the award, he might not exactly deserve to get first place. But he does deserve to, at the very least, be put in the same conversation as some others who received pretty sizeable voting.
Foerster’s Play This Season
This season has been a tale of a few stretches for Foerster. The start of the season was dominated by defensive excellence, showing head coach John Tortorella that he can play in the dirty areas of the ice if he has to. Winning puck battles was sort of his MO for a while — but it worked.
In doing so, however, he sacrificed a bit of his offense. Playing first-line minutes frequently as a rookie, his 2.22 even strength expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) from the start of the season until the end of January made him a better contender for the Selke Trophy than anything else.
Among forwards who had more than 14 minutes of ice time at even strength through Jan. 31, only Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars and Jiri Kulich of the Buffalo Sabres had a better xGA/60 — the former might be a finalist for the Selke Trophy, while the latter only played one NHL game so it skewed his numbers a bit. It’s not normal for a player who sees as much ice as Foerster to get those results.
From the month of February on, however, things changed for Foerster for a little while. He started scoring goals. He had a nine-game stretch where he scored nine goals, sacrificing his defensive excellence in the process. From Feb. 1 onward, his 1.99 individual goals per 60 minutes (G/60) ranks 14th in the NHL among forwards with 100 or more minutes of ice time. In the 96th percentile for goals in this time frame, he has been a red-hot scorer. Essentially, he can be whatever player he wants to, but it comes with sacrifice. He can’t be both elite at scoring and defense at the same time, but he surely can be one or the other.
Overall, Foerster has 16 goals and 12 assists for 28 points in 61 games and a plus-6 rating this season. For a rookie, those numbers are pretty solid. How do they — and everything else — stack up against the competition?
The Other Candidates Around the League
It’s hard to compare rookies around the league, especially with the fact that many of them in consideration for the Calder Trophy play different positions and are in different situations. We’ll look at just forwards for our comparisons.
Related: 2023-24 Calder Trophy Tracker
In descending order of how many points each player was awarded, the following got votes: Connor Bedard, Brock Faber, Pytor Kochetkov, Luke Hughes, Marco Rossi, Sam Ersson, Connor Zary, Dmitri Voronkov, Joseph Woll, Will Cuylle, and Pavel Mintyukov.
Bedard is deservedly in first place. Though his on-ice stats might not be the greatest with a Chicago Blackhawks team threatening to finish dead last in the NHL, he has had a great impact. The eye test backs up his excellence. Among the other forwards, though, how does Foerster look when compared to them?
Marco Rossi, Minnesota Wild
The player that stacks up the best against Foerster is Rossi of the Minnesota Wild. In 66 games, his 17 goals and 16 assists for 33 points are all better, but it’s only marginal. His expected goals percentage (xGF%) at even strength is 53.3 percent, ranking in the 77th percentile among forwards. Foerster sits at 53.6 percent, putting him in the 79th percentile. The two are as close as you can get in terms of stats, yet Rossi got 19 voting points for the Calder Trophy while the Flyers winger got none.
The thing to note is that Foerster’s competition is a step above Rossi’s. The former gets second-line minutes and has been on the first line quite frequently — especially recently — while the latter has been more of a middle-six fixture. So what Foerster is doing is arguably that much more impressive. The two players, both 22 years old, have both been very good this season — one is just getting significantly more respect from voters than the other.
Connor Zary, Calgary Flames
22-year-old Zary for the Calgary Flames is having a tremendous season. With 12 goals and 17 assists for 29 points in 50 games, he has the best points-per-game rate of any non-Bedard rookie in the race. His plus-17 rating is elite, too.
However, Zary’s on-ice defense contradicts his plus/minus rating a bit. His 51.4 percent xGF% is solid, but not quite elite. But, again, the level of competition is a bit easier for him than it is for Foerster. If anything, the Flames forward should be getting more consideration than he already is, but Foerster probably should as well.
Dmitri Voronkov, Columbus Blue Jackets
Voronkov of the Columbus Blue Jackets, 23 years of age, is similar to Rossi in the way that he is putting up the points, but not that much more. His 17 goals and 14 assists for 31 points in 59 games are essentially on par with Foerster, meanwhile, his even strength xGF% of 47.0 percent is considerably lower — he’s in the 37th percentile of forwards.
Voronkov may have Foerster in the offensive game by a hair, but the defensive game is a resounding win for Foerster. Voronkov’s poor on-ice results may have to do with the fact that the Blue Jackets are struggling as a team, but with that being said he’s definitely not a two-way athlete at this stage of his career.
Will Cuylle, New York Rangers
Cuylle from the New York Rangers was a pretty interesting player to get a vote in that he doesn’t beat Foerster in any scoring category. His 11 goals and eight assists for 19 points in 65 games as a bottom-six player are pretty good, but he is benefitting from easier competition. His 205 hits are among the NHL leaders, so that might have been a big reason why he got a vote. Still, his 48.1 percent xGF% isn’t anything extraordinary — especially on a contender like the Rangers.
Foerster might not deserve to win the Calder Trophy, but he deserves more respect than he is getting. When the time comes for voters to cast their ballots, there should be no reason why his name doesn’t appear a few times. He is a high-end rookie with a bright future in the NHL.
