Morgan Frost, in the last season of his contract and set to be a restricted free agent (RFA) in the 2025 offseason, is in an interesting spot. The Philadelphia Flyers could use some high-end centers for their rebuild — it was a clear position of need in 2023-24. While he had a good season, the Orange and Black might want to get a serious upgrade on Frost in the future.
Still just 25, Frost has at least earned the right to have one more shot with Philadelphia to show that he can reach another level in his game. If he can, he might be worth extending to a long-term contract and be the official solution as the Flyers’ second-line center for years to come. If not, he should probably be shipped out — his 2024-25 campaign means everything. Is he capable of reaching new heights?
Frost Makes Those Around Him Better
While Frost didn’t have the most outstanding offensive production in 2023-24 with just 41 points in 71 games, he was still an integral part of the Flyers. After Sean Couturier saw his role decrease as the season went on, it was up to Frost to help those around him play to the best of their ability. As far as expected goals percentage (xGF%) goes, he accomplished that.
Of the Flyers’ nine major wingers, seven of them had a better xGF% with him at center than without him. Owen Tippett was at his best with Frost, which shows just how important the 25-year-old centerman can be. He was essential in helping his team create chances whilst suppressing them at the same time.
There was a reason why Frost was in the 84th percentile of forwards in offensive zone ice time percentage at 44.9. He was responsible with the puck and was one of the Flyers’ best offensive creators. With that and his scoring rate in mind, he very well could be a 70-point player in the future if his disastrous 8.2 on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) can increase. If both he and his linemates can improve their finishing, the stat sheet might tell a different story in 2024-25.
Flyers Still Need Better Play Down the Middle
Even though Frost is a great two-way player and generator of offense, Philadelphia still lacks talent. Prospect Matvei Michkov is not enough to completely change the team — they need more. If the Flyers want to prioritize their centers in upcoming drafts, that would naturally lead to Frost losing his spot in the top six. If he can’t prove that he is a high-end second-line center at the very least, the Flyers might look the other way and try to support their wingers with elite talent.
No matter how you look at it, scoring 40-50 points as a second-line player is not going to cut it. His career-best is just 46, so he will need to have some point production to be truly worthy of a long-term deal. He signed a bridge contract in the 2023 offseason already — it’s not going to happen again. He should be looking to get paid, but he also hasn’t had the production of someone worth giving this type of deal.
The Flyers shouldn’t be asking someone like Frost to be Michkov’s center. He might actually be capable of that as far as their strengths go, but all he really needs to be is very good in his role, whatever that might be. If it is a two-way second-liner, he will need to be one of the best. Frost has to show the Flyers that they’d be making a mistake by giving him away — he will need to show a bit more to prove that.
How the Flyers Can Acquire a Replacement
If it comes down to it and Frost doesn’t take a leap in 2024-25, the Flyers might look to replace him. Assuming they can acquire a top-line center at some point, the Flyers should have plenty of options with their second-line center. Trading, free agency, and the draft are all smart ways to add one to the roster.
An approach that the New York Rangers took with Vincent Trocheck could always be the move. They had a great team already assembled, then added him to their roster on a seven-year, $5.625 average annual value (AAV) contract in the 2022 offseason. At the time, he might have been a tier above Frost but around the same type of player in terms of production. This postseason, however, he has emerged as perhaps the Rangers’ most valuable player with 19 points in 14 games. Free agency can be a risk, but in this case, it resulted in a tremendous reward.
The Flyers might also want to explore a trade. He seems to be more of a first-line player based on his talent, but adding Martin Necas from the Carolina Hurricanes can help the Flyers establish a double-headed monster at center. Both he and an equivalent or better player could help the Orange and Black reach their ceiling.
Related: Philadelphia Flyers Should Be All-in on Martin Necas
Finally, the draft can be worthwhile for the Flyers. Even if they don’t have a high pick to use on a center, they can find a second-line steal either in the middle of a top round or even later. The hit rate and star potential tend to be a bit lower as the draft moves along, but a trade package for Frost could ironically help replace him and save the team money in the process, assuming a pick is included.
Ideally, the Flyers shouldn’t want to trade Frost. He has been a prominent member of their NHL roster for the last three seasons, seeing progression along the way. He’s a good player now, but to earn an extension he will have to be great. He can prove whether or not he is capable of living up to that in 2024-25.
