With much of the New York Rangers‘ defense corps suddenly in flux and shrouded in uncertainty, the Blueshirts are hoping the time has come for two of their young mainstays to step up in a big way in 2024-25.
Those would be K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider, the former first-round draft picks that got a late-season whirl as a pairing in 2023-24 and whom the Blueshirts need to make significant strides this coming season – perhaps taking over as the club’s matchup duo from the get-go.
Miller, with four NHL seasons under his belt, and Schneider, with 2 1/2, had the Rangers so enamored with their potential that the club traded up in the draft to get them – jumping four spots to No. 22 in 2018 to grab Miller, and three spots to No. 19 in 2020 for Schneider – with the idea that both would become top-four staples on the blue line in fairly short order. Given their experience level, and the change that’s likely coming to the Rangers’ back end over the next calendar year, the Blueshirts are ready for the two young veterans to help anchor the defense next season.
A More Physical Approach Might Spark Next Phase of Miller’s Rise
Adam Fox is the Rangers’ top defenseman, but it’s possible that Miller-Schneider might become their best and most dependable blue-line unit next season. Though Fox’s erstwhile partner Ryan Lindgren is likely to be back for 2024-25, potentially on a one-year contract after he filed for arbitration, the Blueshirts may be seriously weighing the risks of giving a long-term contract to an undersized player who takes a beating every season and might not keep getting up as easily as he ages.
Captain Jacob Trouba probably won’t be on the roster past the coming season after the club’s clumsy offseason attempt to trade him appeared to stamp an expiration date on the relationship. Zac Jones opened eyes with a strong 31-game stint in 2023-24, but he remains largely an unknown, and the Rangers could be interested in adding size on the third pair instead of just handing the job that opened up when veteran Erik Gustafsson departed to the 23-year-old.
That would all seem to make a leap by Miller and Schneider a must for a team that continues to harbor Stanley Cup aspirations. Miller has been a mainstay in the lineup and top four since jumping directly from the University of Wisconsin onto the Rangers’ roster for the 2020-21 season, his tantalizing size, reach, skating and athleticism suggesting to the Rangers that an elite blueliner would indeed eventually emerge.
Miller has been very good, recording 73 points and a plus-17 rating over the past two seasons while playing all but five games. Yet his underlying numbers leave something to be desired, as he’s never finished a season with an expected goal share of 50 percent. The Rangers marvel at his powerful skating, ability to come back and break up plays with his speed and reach, and obvious offensive potential. Now they’d love to see him assemble all of that into a dominant season – and maybe get a little more ornery as well.
Despite Miller’s 6-foot-5, 215-pound frame, he’s never really struck fear into opponents’ hearts, even though he recorded a career-high 162 hits in 2022-23. Can the 24-year-old add some more nastiness and physicality to his game? His ability to do so might be the “key,” so to speak, for him to fully unlock his apparent vast potential.
“I think there’s a time and place for physicality,” Miller said in March. “When an opportunity presents itself I’m going to step up and hit somebody. If I have an opportunity to make a big play by hitting somebody I would.
“Obviously I’m not the most physical player on the team but I am trying to bring a little more edge to my game.” (From ‘K’Andre Miller’s Best Version is a Rangers Key’, New York Post, 3/11/24)
Miller will have additional incentive to do just that as he heads into a contract year, as he’ll be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next summer. His goal will be to get the Rangers to significantly increase his $3.872 million cap hit of 2023-24, hopefully on a long-term deal.
Regardless of his contract status, this coming season appears to be a pivotal one for Miller. Raw coming out of college, and having only switched to defense in high school, there’s still question as to whether he can forge his impressive tools into a skill set that allows him to consistently dominate, which he’s done in plenty of games but not on a regular basis to this point.
A successful partnership with Schneider would in theory increase Miller’s payday. At 22, Schneider has shown flashes of what he might develop into, having become a fixture in the lineup upon his arrival Jan. 13, 2022, and scoring a goal in his debut. Though not equal to Miller’s, Schneider also possesses offensive upside to go with his calm, sound approach in his own zone.
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Yet like Miller, Schneider’s game has plenty of room to grow. His advanced metrics haven’t been great, posting expected goal shares under 44 in his first two seasons, and the Rangers have been significantly outchanced with him on the ice. His expected goal share rose to 48.6 last season, though the Blueshirts were still outchanced at 5-on-5 with Schneider deployed.
While Miller might require something to annoy him to bring about some more physical play, Schneider’s nasty edge came baked in, a big reason why the Blueshirts coveted him. That didn’t show up all the time in his first two seasons, understandably so as he focused on sound defensive positioning while adjusting to playing in the NHL.
Schneider’s Game Trended Upward in 2023-24
Schneider, though, should feel free to pound away at opponents in his fourth season. His hit total rose from 147 to 167 from 2022-23 to 2023-24. Also encouraging was his giveaway total falling from 52 two seasons ago to 39 last season, and he blocked a career-high 133 shots, three more than in 2022-23.
The Rangers are banking on those positive trends continuing, as the man nicknamed “Baby Trouba” ostensibly undergoes a replacement of the actual Trouba as the team’s top-four right-side shutdown defender. Having signed a two-year, $4.4 million bridge contract July 13, the potential exists for the Blueshirts to extract serious value out of the deal over the life of it.
“I feel like with this (coaching) staff we got, I felt like I’ve learned a ton, feel like I’ve gained a ton of confidence and been given a great opportunity,” Schneider said at breakup day after the Rangers’ six-game loss to the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Final. “I think I just gotta make sure I keep building on my game; I think there’s levels I want to find still, there’s still a lot of growth and a lot of learning to go.
“I’m looking forward to getting there and coming back here and continuing to grow as a player.”
It’s worth noting that while Schneider moved up to take Trouba’s spot next to Miller late in the season and into the playoffs, it wasn’t a pure promotion. Whether due to a leg injury or not, Trouba’s game had fallen off significantly enough – he was a minus-13 from January until the end of the regular season – that coach Peter Laviolette felt he had no choice but to make the switch.
Nor was the Miller-Schneider pairing a revelation. In 275 minutes at 5-on-5 during the regular season, the duo posted a 47.4 expected goal share, with the Rangers getting outchanced 117-146, even though they outscored opponents 15-14 in that stretch. The playoffs weren’t any better, with the duo posting a 45.2 mark and the Blueshirts being outchanced 59-91 – including 23-40 in high-danger chances – and getting outscored 7-4 with them on the ice.
To put it bluntly, the Rangers are banking on more from their promising 20-somethings in 2024-25. With transition on the blue line seemingly inevitable over the next season-plus, the club will have to be able to count on more than just Fox to drive positive play from the back end if it expects to contend for a championship.
The most likely candidates to do that are the two young talents for whom the Rangers were willing to sacrifice assets to acquire in the draft, envisioning them as cornerstones of their future. To paraphrase a terrible cliche, the Blueshirts need the future to be now. Without steps forward from Miller and Schneider next season, it’s difficult to envision 2024-25 ending any differently than 2022-23 – with the Rangers falling short of the ultimate goal once again.
