Would the Buffalo Sabres trade Casey Mittelstadt? He is a pending restricted free agent this offseason, but he has previously stated he intends to re-sign with the Sabres. I believe that is the most likely scenario. However, Lance Lysowski of the Buffalo News reported earlier this month that while the Sabres weren’t actively shopping him, they were listening to inquiries from other teams. On the 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman expressed that Mittelstadt would be expecting a lucrative offer, given the long-term contracts received by the other members of Buffalo’s young core. If the Sabres don’t want to get out their checkbooks for Mittelstadt, they may have no choice but to move him.
It sounds like a trade isn’t Buffalo’s first choice, but if they are listening to calls, we can’t rule it out. What call would be enough to make general manager (GM) Kevyn Adams consider pulling the trigger? That’s what I’ll attempt to answer today.
“Pierre-Luc Dubois-Esque” Package Would be Ideal
One of the best ways to predict the market value of a player is to look at similar players and see what trade package was enough to acquire them. Pierre Luc-Dubois is one player who comes to mind as a good Mittelstadt comparable. The Winnipeg Jets traded Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings this past offseason. Here was the final trade:
Kings Receive:
Pierre-Luc Dubois
Jets Receive:
Gabriel Vilardi
Alex Iafallo
Rasmus Kupari
A second-round pick (from the Montreal Canadiens)
The Jets received a middle-six center in Vilardi, a third-line left wing in Iafallo, a depth center in Kupari, and a draft pick. I was surprised by how much the Jets got in this deal at the time, and sure enough, it is paying off for them this season. Mittelstadt is 25 years old, the same age as Dubois. Both are top-six centers with at least a couple of 55 to 65-point seasons to their names.
Dubois has been the more consistent goal scorer and power-play player over his career; however, Mittelstadt has been the better playmaker and more productive 5-on-5 player. Dubois’ 5-on-5 points-per-60 (P/60) was below 1.8 in his previous four seasons before being traded. Mittelstadt, meanwhile, has enjoyed a 2.49 P/60 this season and a 2.26 P/60 in 2022-23. On top of that, he has continued to round out his defensive game in a way that Dubois never really has.
Overall, I believe the Sabres would consider making a deal if a similar package presented itself. Buffalo doesn’t need a boatload of draft picks and would want proven NHL-ready players. Considering how well Winnipeg made out, Adams would be wise to listen to an offer similar to this one. Because Dubois had been producing for longer, and he had such a high perceived value around the league (deserved or not), Mittelstadt may attract a little bit less of a return, but it should be at least close.
Mock Trade – Nashville Predators
The Nashville Predators aren’t looking to rebuild. They want to do a retool with a quick turnaround, and one of their most significant needs is a young, top-six center. Mittelstadt is a guy who could make an impact for the Predators right away, and they have plenty of cap space to get him locked in long-term. Here is a mock trade Adams would likely consider:
Predators Receive:
Casey Mittelstadt
Sabres Receive:
Alexandre Carrier
Yakov Trenin
Third-Round Pick
This trade uses the Dubois deal as a starting template, with alterations to better fit Buffalo’s needs and Nashville’s trade capabilities. Rather than a middle-six center, the Sabres would pick up a right-shot top-four defenseman in Alexandre Carrier. He plays a solid 200-foot game and would be the perfect partner for Rasmus Dahlin or Owen Power. 40.2 percent of Carrier’s time-on-ice (TOI) is against elite competition, a team-high on the Predators. He has an impressive 57.1 percent goal share in those minutes, proving he’s more than up to the task of shutting down the opponent’s best.
The Predators don’t possess the depth to deal away three players like the Kings did in the Dubois trade, so they would be more likely to offer a bottom-six player like Yakov Trenin and leave out the depth NHL piece. I don’t see this being an issue for the Sabres, given the caliber of player they would be receiving in Carrier. Stylistically, Trenin is another perfect fit. His 161 hits this season are 27 more than Buffalo’s current team leader, Connor Clifton. The Sabres are desperate for physicality, and Trenin brings that in spades. The Predators have accumulated plenty of draft picks, so adding a third-round selection to the mix adds to the package’s value and fits with what Nashville is capable of parting with.
Related: Sabres’ Patience With Casey Mittelstadt Has Paid Off
The main caveat with this trade would be that Carrier and Trenin are both pending unrestricted free agents. Extensions would need to be discussed before Buffalo ever considered the deal. Do the Sabres value Carrier enough to make him the main piece returning in a Mittelstadt trade? His value is underrated by many, so it’s hard to say. The bottom line is that this deal would bring in two impactful players that the Sabres need, and the cost of extending both will likely come in at a smaller cap hit than Mittelstadt’s next contract. This offer certainly resembles something Adams might want to consider.
Should The Sabres Trade Mittelstadt?
Given Mittelstadt’s progress over the past two seasons, it makes the most sense for the Sabres to extend him. If something goes wrong in contract negotiations, or Adams receives an offer he can’t refuse, expect any potential trade to involve a proven defenseman like Carrier to come back the other way. That’s where the deal starts. It would have to be an impressive offer for Adams to do more than listen, though.
