Problems in goal have tormented the Ottawa Senators for the past three seasons, and recently acquired puck stopper Joonas Korpisalo may not be the solution to them, as Senators’ general manager (GM) Pierre Dorion claimed in a July 1 press conference. In fact, Dorion could regret signing the 29-year-old Finn to the five-year, $20 million contract he inked on Canada Day.
Some of what we’ve seen in Korpisalo’s previous eight seasons in the NHL would make him a good bet to backstop the Senators to playoff success next season. Even so, there’s enough to make a bookie nervous that he isn’t. While Dorion has no sure bet in Korpisalo, signing him was a wager he probably had to make – even if it could decide his future as GM in the nation’s capital.
Korpisalo’s Contract is Risky Business for the Senators
The first question the Korpisalo contract raises is why the Senators committed for five years to a goalie who has never played more than 40 games at any point in his professional career nor been a starting goaltender for any appreciable period of time anywhere. Korpisalo simply hasn’t convincingly demonstrated his bona fides as a starting goaltender.
It’s possible that Korpisalo could quickly establish himself as the Senators’ number one crease-keeper. Dorion seems to think he could, saying at the presser that, “he (Korpisalo) is just scratching the surface. He’s still got a lot of upside.” Yet journeymen goalies like Korpisalo can turn out to be duds as often as studs. For that matter, elite goalies can too – just watch Ottawa fans cringe at the mere mention of Matt Murray.
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If Korpisalo disappoints, then the Senators are stuck with him for five years and may have a hard time moving him. Just ask Edmonton Oilers’ GM Ken Holland how much interest his twine minder Jack Campbell is generating with the ghastly numbers he put up last season during the first year of a five-year deal Holland gave him last summer. Campbell tanked as soon as he strapped on the pads at Rogers Place. A two-year term would have been safer.
Complicating the picture is 23-year-old Belleville Senators netminder Mads Sogaard, now challenging for a permanent spot in Ottawa’s net. Kevin Mandolese and Leevi Merilainen will also challenge for an opportunity in goal at some point in the next few years. Sooner, rather than later, the Senators will have to make room for one or more of these youngsters on their roster. If Korpisalo doesn’t live up to the hype surrounding his signing, he’ll stand in the way and be hard to fob off to another team.
Korpisalo – Average at Best
Korpisalo has shown flashes of brilliance at points in his eight seasons in the league – perhaps no more so than in the COVID-plagued 2020 Stanley Cup playoff tournament. In the Toronto bubble, he started in nine of 10 games his Columbus Blue Jackets played in the tournament and was almost invincible. He posted two shutouts, a .941 SV%, and set an NHL record with 85 saves in a game-one loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning that went to five overtime periods before being settled.
Last season, over 39 games with the Blue Jackets and the Los Angeles Kings (the most he’s ever played in a single season), Korpisalo registered the best goaltending stats of his career, notching a save percentage (SV%) on the season at .914 comparable to the New York Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin, the Tampa Bay Lighting’s Andre Vasilevskiy and the 2022-23 Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights’ Adin Hill. Not only that, but he recorded an elite level goals-against- average (GAA) of 2.13 in Los Angeles last year – albeit over just 11 games.
What’s encouraging for the Senators is that he put up these numbers in Columbus, backstopping a blazing tire fire of a D-Corps. It will be interesting to see what he can do with Ottawa’s much-improved squad on the blue line in front of him.
Even so, his career numbers give the lie to his performance in 2022-23. In four of his eight seasons, his SV% was below .900. In 2020-21 and 2021-22, his GAA was an abysmal 3.30 and 4.15, respectively. To be fair, throughout his NHL career he has a .904 SV%, but still, that’s just the NHL average.
GAA is a poor goaltender measuring stick since it can say as much about a team as it does about its netminder. Yet even if we take a look at some more advanced statistics that some say are better goalie gauges, he comes out as mediocre at best. Take goals-saved-above-average (GSAA), which compares the goals a netminder prevented given his SV% and shots faced, with the league average SV% on the same number of shots. Over his career, Korpisalo notched an uninspiring -37.9. The league average GSAA last season among all goaltenders, who played at least 39 games, was 4.3.
Some pundits like to combine the GSAA with the goals-saved-above-expected (GSAx) statistic, which is just expected goals against, minus actual goals against, or shots saved that the goalie should save based on shot quality and quantity. I won’t put you to sleep explaining how it is calculated, but last season Korpisalo placed a respectable 19th in the league with 10.18. Yet in 2021-22, he ranked 96th with -8.07 after placing 56th in 2020-21 with -18.06. Ottawa fans couldn’t be blamed for wondering whether last season was a fluke. A shorter contract would have forced him to prove he was the real deal.
Dorion’s Goaltender Dilemma
Dorion no doubt questioned the 5-year term of the Korpisalo contract saying at his Canada Day presser that “we enquired about him at the trade deadline. We wanted to give him a test run, but obviously Columbus got a great return for him,” in sending him to the Kings who needed a goalie for a playoff run.
Yet Dorion believes in the veteran Finn saying, “I’ve liked him since his draft”. That may explain why he may have swallowed hard at the 5-year contract term and signed it anyway.
It’s easy to forget that coming up to free agency season, the Senators didn’t have a lot of options to add to their goaltending lineup. The Pittsburgh Penguins’ Tristan Jarry was the most sought-after free agent, but Pittsburgh didn’t let him walk out the door and locked him up in a 5-year contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $5.375 million.
To put that in perspective, Korpisalo’s AAV is just $4 million. While the 28-year-old Jarry last season logged a GAA and SV% of 2.9 and .909, respectively, Korpisalo put up a corresponding 2.87 and .914. These numbers make it hard to argue that the Korpisalo contract isn’t good value for the Sens.
The only other free-agent goalie available that’s worth a mention is Frederik Andersen. The aging, injury-prone Dane was probably never a consideration for Ottawa and ended up signing a two-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes in July.
Given how badly Ottawa needed to shore up its goal and the skimpy pickings in the free-agent market, you have to believe that the Korpisalo side knew they were in a good bargaining position. Perhaps the choice Dorion faced was agreeing to a five-year deal or seeing Korpisalo sign elsewhere.
Related: Joonas Korpisalo Will Boost Senators’ Playoff Hopes
Some in the peanut gallery argue that Dorion should have gambled and brought Mads Sogaard up to the big team from the baby Sens in Belleville. That’s an option, but one that may pose more risk to Ottawa’s long-term prospects in goal than the Korpisalo contract. More than a few young NHL goalie prospects have been ruined by being brought along too quickly to the NHL.
Not only that, but it’s not unreasonable to expect that both next season’s presumptive backup, Anton Forsberg and Korpisalo will be tradable when Mads Sogaard does crack the lineup in the next few years. What’s more, when he does make it to the big club, Sogaard will need some mentoring and the Senators may look to Korpisalo to provide it.
Some say the Sens should just go out and acquire the goaltending talent they need. Yet the NHL isn’t fantasy hockey, and as Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving once explained it, “the idea that you can go pick ‘this player’ off the player tree … it doesn’t happen that way.”
Finding good goaltenders is akin to searching for Sasquatch, and even when Ottawa finds the mythical beast, many have Ottawa (aka, Dullsville-on-the-Rideau) on their no-trade list. A case in point is Connor Hellebuyck, who has made it clear that he wants out of Winnipeg but has Ottawa on his list. (from, Bruce Garrioch, “GARRIOCH: Ottawa Senators score big by signing goalie Joonas Korpisalo to five-year deal”, 01/07/2023)
Senators Gamble on Korpisalo
It’s been six long years since the Senators have seen postseason play, and a big reason they haven’t is because of problems in goal. In the last few years, it explains why they were out of playoff contention by American Thanksgiving.
If the Sens don’t make the playoffs in 2024, changes in the team’s coaching and management ranks are a certainty. How Korpisalo performs will play a big role next year in determining who stays and who goes.
