The Ottawa Senators have taken strides forward this season. On average, they rank fourth in shots per game, allow the ninth-lowest shots per game, and are the 11th-best possession team in the NHL. Their power play has been especially lethal; only three other teams have been more effective on the man advantage, and of those, the Colorado Avalanche have allowed more power-play goals against than Ottawa. Individually, Tim Stutzle is 12th in the league with 19 points in 14 games, Brady Tkachuk has 18 points in the same span while also ranking in the top ten in hits, and Jake Sanderson has the third-most takeaways among all players.
However, the Senators are 20th in the NHL standings with a 7-7-0 record, so it’s not been easy to remain optimistic. Defence continues to be a concern, as does depth scoring, but both areas are also better than in previous seasons. Instead, the Senators are falling apart due to their ineffective penalty kill. Although it hasn’t directly resulted in a loss, other teams have been able to capitalize on weaknesses and gain the necessary momentum to blow by the Senators. It’s a worrying trend, and the deeper we look, the more concerning it becomes.
Importance of a Good Penalty Kill
This season, the Senators have been one of the worst teams shorthanded, with a 76.92% success rate, which is the 12th worst in the NHL. However, that stat isn’t a deal-breaker; of the 11 teams that have been worse, only two are lower in the standings, while two more are tied with the Senators at 14 points. Ottawa’s problems lie in their rates. While down a man, they’ve given up 59.81 scoring chances per 60 minutes, which is the fifth highest in the NHL, and their 8.41 goals against per 60 minutes is the 12th highest. Those two stats imply that not only are the Senators giving up a lot of chances, but they’re also giving up good chances, and their goalie is bailing them out.
Of their seven losses, the Senators have been scored on four times during the penalty kill, and of those four, three saw a significant shift in momentum following the goals. The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres sat lower in the standings than the Senators when they faced each other, and both opened the game with a power-play goal, and the Senators only managed to score once during the rest of the game. Then, against the Vegas Golden Knights, the Senators were winning 4-3 before a goal on the penalty kill led to two more unanswered goals to finish them off 6-4.
Related: Senators Defeat Bruins 3-2 on Brady Tkachuk’s Overtime Winner
Three frustrating losses, three games directly affected by a badly-timed goal while a man down. Compare that with Ottawa’s three other losses this season. The New Jersey Devils surged past the Senators while Artem Zub and Linus Ullmark sat with minor injuries, which is difficult to find fault in, but the Senators nearly beat the Colorado Avalanche, pushing them to 5-4 despite letting in an empty-net goal. Against the New York Islanders, a resurgence in the third period nearly saw them do the same thing they did against Colorado, but a late empty-net goal from Bo Horvat stopped them in their tracks. Getting a power-play goal is incredibly important to change the pace of the game, and the Senators are giving them up at key moments, leading to demoralizing losses.
A Tale of Two Different Penalty Kill Units
Looking closer at the Senators’ two penalty kill units raises a whole new concern. According to Daily Faceoff, the Senators’ first penalty kill unit is Josh Norris, Claude Giroux, Nick Jensen, and Zub. Giroux and Jensen have averaged 2:12 minutes per game or roughly 30 minutes of total ice time, which leads the group, and Giroux has been on the ice for three goals, while Jensen has seen just two get by him. Norris has been just as effective as Giroux, averaging a slightly lower 2:02 minutes per game and allowing three goals by him this season. Zub has been limited to an average of 1.35 minutes due to injury, but he’s also never allowed a goal while on the ice for the penalty kill. No problems here.
The Senators’ second unit is Ridly Greig, Noah Gregor, Jake Sanderson, and Travis Hamonic, and this is where we begin to see some issues. Greig and Gregor have been fine; both average about a minute and a half per game, and while Greig has allowed just three goals compared to Gregor’s five, the latter has been on the penalty kill longer, as Greig was put in following Shane Pinto’s injury. Sanderson currently leads the Senators in average penalty kill ice time at 2:26 minutes per game, and despite his strong season, he has six goals against and sits at an average of 10.6 goals against per 60 minutes. At even strength, he’s at just 3.4 goals against per 60 minutes.
That brings us to Hamonic, who has averaged 1:38 minutes shorthanded and has allowed eight goals on the penalty kill, which is tied for the 15th most in the NHL and averages 20.6 goals against per 60 minutes. Only two players have averaged more ice time and more goals against this season: Darnell Nurse and Ben Chiarot – the latter, at least, has a 2.5 goals per 60 to help balance things out.
From there, it gets even more concerning. The Senators have allowed nine goals on the penalty kill, and Hamonic has been on the ice for all but one of them. Tyler Kleven has played just under 3 minutes shorthanded, and his only goal against came in his 40 seconds alongside Hamonic. One of Jensen’s goals against came when he was paired with Thomas Chabot, with whom he’s played over 26 minutes, while the other came in the 18 seconds he was with Hamonic. All of Giroux’s and Norris’ goals against came when playing with Hamonic, as did all three of Pinto’s goals against.
Why is Hamonic Still on the PK?
The decision doesn’t seem to make much sense; Kleven seemingly had a very short leash before being yanked from penalty kill duties. Instead, it might come down to the Senators’ lack of depth. Hamonic is a right-shot defenceman, and Ottawa’s only other options are Jensen, who has been manning the top PK unit, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, who has been playing consistently on the third pairing alongside Kleven. Bernard-Docker has been solid in his sheltered role.
In nine games, he has two assists, a 56.3 Corsi for percentage, and a 2.3 goals-against per 60 minutes while averaging just over 14 minutes a night. All those stats are better than Hamonic, but the 24-year-old has been primarily playing in the offensive end, while the 34-year-old veteran has been mostly grinding away in the defensive zone.
Clearly, head coach Travis Green doesn’t trust Bernard-Docker to play heavy defensive minutes and would rather have a veteran on the penalty kill. To be fair, Hamonic has decent defensive stats, owning a 1.0 defensive point share and 31 blocked shots, good for second behind Sanderson on the Senators. There’s no question that he’s not as effective as he once was, and all these goals against could come down to rotten luck, but at some point, the team has to wonder if it’s just a string of coincidences or if this is a pattern. The advanced stats imply that Hamonic is the primary problem, though, and the longer he remains on the second penalty kill unit, the tougher time Ottawa will have winning games.
So, if Green won’t trust Bernard-Docker to take over Hamonic’s spot, then the Senators need to find a new defenceman. However, there’s not a lot available right now. Veterans Kevin Shattenkirk and Marco Scandella are still unsigned and are known to be reliable defensive defencemen, and Dante Fabbro was just claimed off waivers by the Columbus Blue Jackets, which might mean he could be acquired for cheap.
But the big issue is that Hamonic has a full no-movement clause and can’t be traded or sent down to the minors without his consent. By all accounts, he’s a well-respected leader in Ottawa’s dressing room. Unfortunately for the on-ice product, the Senators may just have to wait until his deal expires at the end of the season. The team’s only hope is that one of the team’s younger players – either Bernard-Docker or Kleven – earn Green’s trust and supplant Hamonic on the penalty kill.
