After signing Vladimir Tarasenko to an ideal one-year deal, the Ottawa Senators’ forward group just got more dangerous. The Senators have clear playoff aspirations and made a statement by signing Tarasenko.
Tarasenko is coming off his lowest goal total since his 38-game NHL debut in 2012-13. In 2022-23, he scored 18 goals in 69 games between the St. Louis Blues and New York Rangers, but there is still lots of reason to have hope in a bounce-back year. Last season, the Blues struggled to score, but Tarasenko got off to a hot start with six points in the first three games but was unable to match that pace for any significant number of games after that.
There was a bit of bad blood between Tarasenko and the organization over the past few years, including some frustration surrounding the way his shoulder injury was handled, as well as him being left available for the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft. He did rebound from these rumors with a strong campaign in 2021-22, posting 34 goals and 82 points.
After being acquired by the Rangers at the trade deadline, Tarasenko joined a star-studded group of wingers that included Patrick Kane, Chris Kreider, and Artemi Panarin, making ice time and shifts on the power play harder to come by, and that was reflected in his production. His average ice time with the Rangers was the lowest it had been in the last decade. I don’t expect that to be a problem in Ottawa.
Tarasenko Rounds Out the Top 6 Perfectly
After the departure of Alex DeBrincat, the Senators knew they needed a goal-scorer to replace him. They acquired Dominik Kubalik in the DeBrincat deal, but he wasn’t quite the high-caliber sniper the team needed to replace DeBrincat. Tarasenko, however, should be a perfect fit.
It is possible, and even likely, that Tarasenko returns to being a 25-goal scorer with the Senators. The team has Tarasenko, Claude Giroux, and Drake Batherson on the right wing, so the expectation is that one of them will move to the left side to play with Josh Norris.
The ideal spot for Tarasenko is on Tim Stutzle’s wing with Brady Tkachuk. Stutzle has developed into a superstar, and when the team acquired DeBrincat, everyone expected to see those two together. For all the same reasons, I hope to see Tarasenko and Stutzle on the top line, though it will be hard for head coach DJ Smith to move Giroux from that spot.
While Stutzle scored 39 goals last season, he is a magical playmaker as well and would benefit from having a pure sniper on his wing. Tkachuk set a new career high with 35 goals, while Giroux matched his, also with 35. Playing with Stutzle is an optimal place for Tarasenko if they want him to score goals.
At only 31 years old, a one-year deal was less than ideal for Tarasenko, but it gives him a chance to earn a bigger payday next offseason if he proves himself with the Sens. He will be playing with a chip on his shoulder and wants to win. According to St. Louis reporter Andy Strickland, Tarasenko reached out to some of the Senators and asked how serious they are about winning. This is very telling in where Tarasenko’s mindset is at.
Reports from Jeremy Rutherford from The Athletic noted that Tarasenko received offers from the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, and San Jose Sharks. Whether he chose the Senators for the players, opportunity or money is unknown.
Senators Hit Cap Crunch
It is bittersweet to talk about Ottawa’s lack of cap space. On the one hand, this is the first time in a long time they have to be careful with how they spend their money. A team that was once deemed one of the cheapest in the league and refused to pay their stars now has their young core locked up on long-term deals (excluding Jake Sanderson), as well as being a destination that quality veterans like Tarasenko and Giroux want to play and are willing to sign.
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With $895,000 in cap space remaining, the Senators have to clear out some money as Egor Sokolov and Shane Pinto still need contracts. In the case of Sokolov, he is likely looking for some assurance he will be given an NHL chance and is still working on the details of his deal. As for Pinto, the money isn’t there for what he has earned. Signing Pinto is crucial for general manager Pierre Dorion.
The Senators have added a lot of salary over the past six months with Jakob Chychrun, Joonas Korpisalo, Kubalik, and Tarasenko, plus re-signing Travis Hamonic. While I expected the Senators to look at Alex Newhook’s deal as a perfect baseline for Pinto, signing Tarasenko changed that. Pinto will likely also be signed to a one-year deal at a lower price than he deserves and earn his payday next season when the cap goes up.
Even on a lower contract, the Senators will still need to move money out. I expect Mathieu Joseph to be the first to go, with Erik Brannstrom a close second.
This is a low-risk deal for Ottawa as they haven’t committed any term and can re-evaluate their situation with the winger next offseason. Tarasenko adds great depth to the team as he, Batherson, or Kubalik are a guarantee for third-line duties alongside Pinto, provided he is signed. As “SENS TALK” on Twitter pointed out, eight of the team’s top-nine forwards scored 20-plus goals recently; Tarasenko and Norris are the only two who didn’t in the 2022-23 season, but likely both would have if they had played a full 82-game season. Norris only played five games last year but was coming off of a 35-goal season, so 20 was more than likely to happen. Tarasenko’s 18 goals in 69 games had him on pace for 21 in a full season.
The Senators have a very dangerous top nine with a stacked defensive group and upgraded goaltending, so a push for the postseason should be the expectation this season. Though the Atlantic is the toughest division in the NHL, the Senators have built a team worthy of the playoff conversation.
