Many fans say that the Ottawa Senators will make the playoffs next spring. I wouldn’t bet on that.
I’m not saying that the Senators’ president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios hasn’t made his club better this offseason, though. In fact, they’re in a better situation to compete for a berth in the playoffs than they’ve been in years. It’s just that I don’t think they’re a playoff team yet.
Let’s look at some of the reasons that the Senators will be on the golf course next April instead of entertaining their long-suffering fans in playoff action at Canadian Tire Centre.
Senators Compete in Tough Division & Conference
The Atlantic Division’s Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, the perennially competitive Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs – a team that these days is good enough to make the playoffs, but not much else – are odds-on favourites to take the Atlantic Division’s three playoff spots. It would take a brave punter to put money on the Senators knocking out one of them for a playoff berth.
The only way for the Senators to make the playoffs is to win one of two wild card spots in the Eastern Conference. That will be very hard since the conference’s Metropolitan Division is stacked with talented teams, including the New Jersey Devils, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers. These teams, along with the Atlantic’s Tampa Bay Lightning, will be formidable contenders for the conference’s two wild card spots.
If all of this wasn’t bad enough, the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres will be nipping at the Senators’ heels in the standings. Like Ottawa, they too are rebuilding and haven’t seen playoff action in years. The misery of a long playoff drought will drive them just as hard this season as it does the Senators.
Goaltending Is the Senators’ Biggest X-Factor in 2024-25
Linus Ullmark is a massive upgrade between the pipes for Ottawa. The 2023 Vezina Trophy winner, with his career goals-against average (GAA) of 2.51 and save percentage (SV%) of .918, is sure to put a significant number of additional wins on the ledger for the Senators this season.
In a recent article, my colleague at The Hockey Writers, Jacob Billington, argued that Ullmark was one of the two biggest x-factors Ottawa faces this season. I agree, but not because of any doubts about his performance; qualms that Billington seems to harbour. What Billington didn’t talk about and should concern Staios is Ullmark’s contract. It expires at the end of this season and what must keep Staios awake at night is that Ullmark seems to be in no rush to sign an extension.
Related: Senators’ Two Biggest X-Factors in 2024-25
If he isn’t willing to re-sign in Ottawa, then the Senators will put him on the trade block at the 2025 Trade Deadline. They aren’t going to let him go for nothing, and if he leaves, it could torpedo the Senators’ playoff hopes.
Even if Ullmark extends his contract, questions about the Senators’ goaltending won’t end there. NHL starting goalies, even workhorses, don’t usually play more than 50 to 60 games in a season, and that’s if they remain healthy. That means backup Anton Forsberg will be starting 30 games or more.
Forsberg’s GAA and SV% at 3.10 and .905, respectively, are below the league average. The Senators will need better-than-average goaltending than he has shown he can deliver. If you’re wondering whether average NHL goaltending can be found in Belleville, it can’t. At least not now in prospects Mads Sogaard and Leevi Merilainen.
Senators’ Firepower Not Enough
The Senators were forced to rely too much on their top-six last season, and they didn’t deliver. Combined with a dismal bottom-six, the team ranked 30th in the league last season in goals scored, racking up an average of just 3.05 per game.
Despite all the hoopla about how talented the Senators’ young forwards are, no Senators were among the league’s top 10 point-getters last season. In 2023-24, the points total Brady Tkachuk put up was only good enough to earn him a rank of 42nd in the league, and he was the Senators’ best. Tim Stutzle was next at 52nd, down from the 19th spot in 2022-23, when he posted 90 points.
Insert the excuses for last year here, but they don’t change the fact that there are huge question marks around the top-six this season. Can Stutzle return to his previous form? Will Josh Norris stay healthy, and even if he does, can he live up to the towering expectations the Senators had of him when they handed him an eight-year contract that pays him almost $8 million per year? Can Shane Pinto take the next step?
Coming into free agency, the Senators knew they had to add some firepower to their third and fourth lines. Its dearth was glaring last season with the bottom-six marking up the scoresheet for a paltry 12% percent of the team’s total points. Successful teams in the NHL must have a bottom-six that poses a scoring threat.
Here’s what the Senators’ bottom-six is projected to be on opening night:
| Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing |
| David Perron | Ridly Greig | Michael Amadio |
| Noah Gregor | Zack Ostapchuk | Zack MacEwan |
Based on the points these players racked up last season and assuming rookie centreman Ostapchuk gets at least 10 points this season, the Senators’ bottom-six can reasonably be expected to put up 125 points. There’s no question that would be a marked improvement from last season when regulars on those lines notched a dismal 96 points.
That Staios improved his bottom-six scoring, which was one of the worst in the NHL, is beyond debate. Even so, that’s not the question. Did he improve it enough?
On that, the answer is maybe, but just barely. If the best the Senators can hope to do next season is win a wild card spot, then you must ask how their projected bottom-six did point-wise compared to the two teams who did capture the Eastern Conference’s two wild card spots last season – Tampa Bay and Washington.
The Bolts’ bottom-six notched 113 points last campaign for a total of about 14% of the team’s total points. So, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that the Senators’ improved bottom-six puts them on par with any other contenders for a wild card spot next spring. That is, until you look at the Caps’ bottom-six. They put up 136 points.
All of this should tell Staios and his coaching staff that while they’ve certainly got a better bottom-six to work with this season, it’s by no means superior to those teams they’ll need to elbow out of the way for a ticket to the playoffs. Perron, Gregor and Amadio need to deliver on the expectations management had of them when they were signed earlier this summer, and Greig and Ostapchuk need to take the next step in their development.
Senators’ Special Teams a Long Way From Respectability
On the penalty kill (PK), the Senators ranked 29th in the league last season. For perspective, last season, the Lightning ranked fifth and the Capitals 18th. On the power play (PP), Ottawa finished 23rd in the league. Tampa was ranked number one and Washington 18th.
So, has Ottawa done enough in the offseason to improve its special teams? Are they squads that compare to those skating for other wild card winners? It won’t be easy for the Senators’ special teams to erase their dismal numbers from last season and return to respectability. It’s a long climb out of the NHL’s basement for their special teams.
Ottawa’s Third Defence Pairing a Big Question Mark
Playoff teams are usually deep on their back end. That’s a problem for the Senators with their third defence pairing.
The job on left defence belongs to Tyler Kleven. That says more about how bare the Senators’ prospect cupboard is than it does about the 22-year-old, 6-foot-4, 205-pound bruiser from Fargo, North Dakota. He’s pretty much all the Senators’ depth at that position. Not only that, but with just under $2 million in cap space left, it’s not like Staios can bring in additional high-end talent for his blue line.
On the right side of the third defence pairing, it comes down to a choice between Travis Hamonic, an oft-injured and aging veteran, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, who had a shaky hold on that spot throughout last season. The Senators placed him on waivers just before the start of last season, and rumour had it that Staios didn’t rule out the possibility of putting him on the trade block at last season’s trade deadline.
Outside of these two, prospects Maxence Guenette and Nikolas Mantinpalo are the Senators’ best options on the right side of the third pairing. Yet, Guenette is just 23 years old with only seven NHL games to his credit. As for Mantinpalo, he’s a product of his native Finland’s Liiga and has played only one season in the American Hockey League with the Belleville Senators.
Senators Are Better, But Are They Good Enough for the 2025 Playoffs?
This summer, Staios has made the Senators deeper, and they’re arguably better on the blue line and in goal. Not only that, but their core is intact and as far as anyone can tell, it’s healthy. Staios did everything that could reasonably be expected of him this summer given the players available in free agency and his limited cap space.
But was it enough for the Senators to make the playoffs for the first time in eight long years? I don’t think so.
