Since being drafted sixth overall back in the 2021 NHL Draft, Simon Edvinsson has been penciled in as the Detroit Red Wings’ second defender of the future on the depth chart behind Moritz Seider by many fans. However, patience would be necessary as he spent another full season in the SHL and two full years in the AHL before breaking out as a full time NHL player this October.
The wait has been well worth it, as the towering Swedish defender has gone from “Project Prospect” to “Projected Star”. While he doesn’t qualify as a rookie by the NHL’s definition, Edvinsson is playing his first consistent stretch at hockey’s highest level, and has been far better than myself and many other Red Wings fans ever expected from him this season.
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Let’s take a look at Edvinsson’s development, success on the top pairing, and updated upside considering his strong start.
No Longer a Rookie
Despite having just 25 NHL games under his belt coming into this season, Edvinsson will not be considered a rookie by the NHL’s standards. He has played at least six games in two preceding seasons (9 gp in 2022-23 and 16 gp in 2023-24), which means he will not be eligible for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, though he probably wouldn’t earn much hype there anyway with young stars like Logan Stankoven and Matvei Michkov battling for that award.
While he only ever played a few short NHL stints over the past two seasons, the Red Wings’ development path for Edvinsson allowed him to play in Detroit and then return to the Grand Rapids Griffins to work on his areas for growth, mainly his offensive decision-making and timing. This led to him becoming one of the AHL’s better two-way defenders by the end of last season, and it was clear that he wasn’t going to be denied a spot in Detroit’s opening night lineup, especially considering the lack of serious competition.
What Makes Edvinsson a Unicorn?
The term “Unicorn” gets thrown around far too often for tall players in prospect circles these days, but I think Edvinsson is one of the few who actually deserve it. Massive players (he’s 6-foot-6) don’t typically have the agility or hands that Edvinsson has, allowing him an escape valve from pressure that most players of his size simply don’t have.
Simon Edvinsson completely shutting down this Isles powerplay late in the 3rd to help maintain Detroit's 1-0 lead✋#LGRW pic.twitter.com/ObdLwXkvX2
— IcehockeyGifs (@IcehockeyG) October 23, 2024
His length and reach make him very disruptive defensively, either with an active stick or a body check, and he has become a lot more confident and controlled with his large frame and limbs since being drafted. Edvinsson’s smooth skating and his puck skill under pressure combine to make him a great puck mover in transition, and his playmaking has improved greatly, allowing him to create a lot more dangerous chances on the rush rather than simply carrying the puck and dumping it in.
Edvinsson’s hockey IQ has become a positive factor much more consistently over the past few seasons as well, and he is continuing to become more confident in his decision making. The AHL and NHL are very fast leagues, and being able to make good decisions is good, but great players can make those good decisions very quickly, which is an area that Edvinsson still has some room for growth in.
The closest comparison to Edvinsson in the NHL is likely Victor Hedman, though that is a bit of an over projection in my eyes, primarily on the offensive end. Hedman’s offensive IQ is on another level, and he’s a future hall-of-famer so that’s not quite a fair expectation for the 21-year-old Edvinsson. Also, I think Edvinsson’s hands are far more active and flashy than Hedman’s, making someone like Tage Thompson an interesting comparable for Edvinsson, despite the obvious issue that they play completely different positions.
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I believe that Edvinsson is going to be the basis for a whole new player type, and thus doesn’t have any great comparables in today’s NHL. Once he has established himself in the NHL for a few years, I bet we’ll see Edvinsson becoming a comparable for many new defenders in the NHL Draft process.
Edvinsson’s Early Ascension to the Top Pair
After spending most of his time at the end of last season and in this year’s training camp on the third pair with Jeff Petry, it didn’t take long for Edvinsson to be paired with Moritz Seider on Detroit’s first defensive pair. After playing historically difficult minutes last season next to Jake Walman, Seider has had a slightly easier workload this year, though elevating Edvinsson to that same difficulty is a tall task. However, he has more than been up to the challenge.
Through the team’s first 14 games, Edvinsson is the only player who hasn’t been outshot at even strength (min. 50 mins played). He’s also turning into something of an analytics darling early on this season, ranking in the top-3 among Red Wings players for Corsi For Percentage, Scoring Chances For Percentage, and Expected Goals For Percentage (all stats via. Natural Stat Trick).
It’s also not the case that Seider is carrying the pairing, considering his even strength minutes away from Edvinsson grade out as significantly worse. In roughly 170 mins played together, Seider has a Shots For Percentage (SF%) just north of 55%, and in 78 minutes next to other defenders, his SF% is an abysmal 33%.
That trend tracks across every major advanced statistical category, with Seider performing significantly worse next to anyone other than Edvinsson. While that is partly a testament to the low level of talent on Detroit’s back-end this season, it also clearly shows that Edvinsson is deserving of these massive minutes against tough opponents.
Edvinsson’s Ultimate Upside Is Improving
I would have considered this season to be a big success for Edvinsson if he held down a spot on the second pair by the end of the year while keeping his head above water. Succeeding in difficult top-pairing minutes is a much bigger step in the right direction than I ever expected from him in his first year as a full time NHL player. If he can maintain, or even improve upon, his good form from the first 14 games of the season, Edvinsson could be well on his way to becoming a two-way star for Detroit.
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I expect Edvinsson’s play to gradually improve over the next few seasons, especially on the offensive end, as he becomes more used to the speed of the NHL. He looks like the kind of player who could comfortably hit 50 points, especially if he earns consistent minutes on either power play unit, and I expect Edvinsson will be a top-4 mainstay for the majority of his career, either creating a bruising top pair with Seider, or as the defensive anchor paired next to a dynamic offensive talent like Axel Sandin Pellikka. Either way, Edvinsson’s hot start has certainly blown my expectations for him out of the water.
