The Tampa Bay Lightning are coming off a 7-6 overtime loss on the road to the Columbus Blue Jackets. While it’s hard to be satisfied with watching an early 3-1 lead slip away, there’s one area they should be happy with. They went 2-for-2 on the power play. It helped them muster a point against a Blue Jackets team, whose offense has been explosive in its last four games (averaging 4.75 goals).
It’s the Lightning on the power play, what’s the big hype here? Well, they just haven’t had that same success with the man advantage as in years past.
Take the 3-2 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins in overtime on Tuesday, for example. While you take the win, it still reflects that they have some work to do. In the game, the Lightning went 0-for-3 with the man advantage. Two of those opportunities came in the first period, which could have helped position them for a win early on in the game – making overtime unnecessary.
If this was a one-off issue, and the power-play performance in the Blue Jackets game was a regular night, then you can pat them on the back for overcoming the off night.
But it’s hard to when the team’s power play has been lackluster all season. Other areas of their game have improved, notably their play at even strength, but it’s been unintentionally at the expense of what was their bread and butter for years.
So let’s look into the issue, and what the repercussions could be.
The Power Play Slump
Just a season ago, the Lightning had the best power play in the entire NHL – scoring with the man advantage 28.6% of the time. They’ve been consistently top 10 in this area since the 2015-16 season. After the Blue Jackets game, they sit at a more respectable 21.4% success rate and are ranked 11th.
However, heading into the game, it was a more anemic 18.5% and 17th in the league.
The Lightning haven’t finished a season in which they scored on fewer than one-fifth of their power play chances since the 2015-16 season (15.8%). So, while the season-long number looks better at the moment, it’s still a significant drop off from the season before and arguably doesn’t reflect the actual performance this season.
So, what could be the cause for this dip? We’ll look at some players currently on the team first before getting to the key guy who no longer is.
Nikita Kucherov is the driving force for this offense. Last season, he was involved in half of the team’s scoring on the season, and that hasn’t changed too much this season. Of the Lightning’s 66 goals so far, he has scored or assisted on 29 of them (43%). He’s still creating power play scoring opportunities. He’s on pace to have a similar number of power-play assists as last season. He had 40 in 2023-24 and would have 40 again at his current pace.
However, he’s not finding the back of the net himself at the same rate. He has one power-play goal this season. At this rate, he’ll finish with four – the actual math is 4.5, but a half goal is impossible. Compare that to 13 goals on the power play last season. The Lightning are feeling it.
Related: Nikita Kucherov Collects 900th Career Point Against the Blue Jackets
Let’s look at Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel too. Point is scoring on the power play just fine – he’s tied for a league-leading six goals as of Friday, Nov. 22. He’s having the opposite issue as Kucherov where he has zero assists on the power play. Now, Point has never been the biggest playmaker on special teams, but after a career-best 17 power-play assists last season, it’s a concerning step backward. Now, I get it. He’s been hurt. He can’t correct course when he’s not on the ice. But when he’s been on the ice, he hasn’t produced the same way in this area of his game.
Guentzel is having a similar issue. He’s on pace to have, in total, 17 power-play points after having 22 last season. A point here and there can add up in the win column. He’s been fantastic for the Lightning at 5-on-5 and that was an issue that needed to be fixed badly. But he isn’t as effective on the power play.
Now, in theory, Guentzel shouldn’t be getting flack. He’s never had more than 23 power-play points in a season. It was to be expected. However, he’s seen as the successor to the guy who was masterful for the Lightning with the man advantage, Steven Stamkos, which brings us to the final culprit of this dilemma.
They are badly missing their former longtime captain in this situation. Last season, Stamkos had 19 goals and 20 assists for 39 points on the power play. For his career, he averaged 16 goals and 16 assists for 32 points. I get it. Stamkos isn’t doing too hot this season with 10 points in 20 games. But, lo and behold, eight of those 10 points have come on the power play – he’s still got it in that department. Perhaps we’d still be seeing his regular production if he was still with his old team.
Implications of the Sluggish Power Play
Look, right now, the Lightning are fine record-wise. They’re 10-6-2 and sit in third place in the Atlantic Division. This is pretty good considering they have at least two games in hand on the other three teams in the top half of the division.
I’m not going to come here and write about how it could cost them a playoff spot, because that would be a massive hyperbole. The problem comes when they get into the playoffs and the power play is ineffective.
I’ll use the loss to the Florida Panthers in the first round, for example. In the first three games, the Lightning went 2-for-12 on the power play. In the 3-2 overtime loss in Game 2, they went a grotesque 1-for-6. In the 5-3 loss in Game 3, which had an empty-net goal, they went 0-for-4. In what were for all intents and purposes one-goal games, they missed the opportunity to flip the script on the series.
Would better 5-on-5 play have made a difference too? Absolutely, and it could this season, too. But you can’t miss the freebies – aka the times you are given an advantage in the game. The Lightning are objectively a better team than last season, but if they can just get back to form at what they do best, they could be one of the best in the NHL.
