I might be one of a few people who aren’t worried about William Nylander signing an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs before the start of the season. In fact, I’m at the other end of the scale. I think allowing Nylander to test free agency might be in the team’s best interest.
Hockey Thinkers Are Getting Panicky About an Unsigned Nylander
Yesterday on Hockey Buzz, Mike Augello wrote: “It is hard to imagine Treliving going into the regular season before either trading Nylander or signing him to an extension since it would be a repeat of the Johnny Gaudreau scenario in Calgary.”
Augello added, “If the Leafs sign Nylander at close to their price without giving him full no-trade protection, it is still possible that they trade the winger before his new deal even begins.”
Augello isn’t the only one addressing the situation. Other Maple Leafs writers and fans think the team is in a tough situation because contract negotiations with Nylander seem to have hit a roadblock. Management is having difficulty persuading him and his agent to sign a contract extension for the upcoming season.
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As I noted, some think this is cause for concern, but I disagree. I don’t think panic is warranted; tthe Maple Leafs should find a silver lining in this situation.
The Nylander Contract Conundrum
Although the possibilities of Nylander’s signing are still drawing some shallow breaths, it’s becoming increasingly likely that he will enter the 2023-24 regular season without a contract extension. Some knee-jerk reactions have suggested that it’s better to get something for him in a trade than nothing. That’s illogical.
Sure, if it’s clear he doesn’t want to sign and play in Toronto, and if the team could get commensurate value in an area of team need by trading him, I’d advocate for that. Trade him now, by all means. Capitalize on his high value – if it’s possible.
But is it possible? It would be unwise to negotiate from anger, frustration, or fear. So eliminate those elements and allow thinking heads to prevail.
A Strategic Approach: The Power Shift Theory
Given that negotiations with Nylander and his agent seem to be moving nowhere, the Maple Leafs might employ the concept of “power shift theory” – a psychological framework that could reshape the power interactions between the two parties.
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The Maple Leafs find themselves in the role of the pursuer, chasing Nylander to sign a contract, placing him and his agent in an advantageous position in negotiations. However, if Toronto stops pursuing Nylander, the worst that could happen is that his contract will expire.
This season, he would continue to suit up for the Blue & White, working hard to have a good season just to prove that he was worth his asking price, which was (as rumors suggest) about $10 million per season.
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Three things could happen with Nylander’s season. First, he could have a great campaign (45 goals and 100 points), and then perhaps he’d be worth the $10 million. Maybe he’d even help the team go on a long Stanley Cup run. That would be good. At that point, the team could choose to pay the piper – or not. If Nylander walks into free agency, Toronto would have considerable cap space available to find a replacement.
Second, Nylander could have a “regular” season, scoring about 35 goals and putting up 80 points. That wouldn’t move the dial on either side’s bargaining position. Of course, Nylander could then find out if he was worth more money somewhere else and leave, or he could decide to accept the team’s offer.
Third, Nylander could have a poor season, which would move the dial in the team’s favor. Perhaps, the Maple Leafs would choose not to re-up the young Swede. But it would also be hard for him to get his asking price anywhere else. The team would be in a better position to sign him for their asking price – or not.
If he gets a better offer than the Maple Leafs are willing to spend, he might leave. If he does, again the team would have his potential salary to spend on an area of need.
Nylander’s Potential Choice
In the scenario that Nylander decides or is forced to explore free agency, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’d leave the Maple Leafs. Instead, he would weigh his options and consider the attractiveness of various offers. If he really likes playing in Toronto, he should realize that remaining with the Maple Leafs aligns best with his desires and goals.
That would turn the tables. Right now, Nylander’s agent is banking on the team hoping to cash in on Nylander’s “potential” 2023-24 season (and seasons beyond). With that potential season in the rearview mirror, Nylander and the team would have a more level playing field.
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Yes, the team could lose him. But the threat of his leaving would be gone. The shift in dynamics could create a more balanced negotiating environment for both parties.
While the possibility of Nylander departing exists, it’s a scenario the team can handle with confidence. If he chooses to leave, the team would have his salary to pursue another talent (or talents). More significantly, the power shift in negotiations could impact how the Maple Leafs approach contract talks. If Nylander expresses a desire to stay, the team could work to strike a fairer deal.
Employing a Strategic Move for the Maple Leafs’ Future
In the grand scheme of things, allowing Nylander to play out his contract might be the best strategy for the Maple Leafs. It could open doors for the team in the free-agent market, enabling them to either work to re-sign Nylander or explore other avenues to strengthen the team’s roster. They’d have two choices instead of the one – sign him or lose him – that’s in conversation right now.
Employing a power shift ultimately works in the team’s favor. As the situation unfolds, the Maple Leafs must be ready to navigate uncertainty. Whether Nylander stays or departs, the team’s ability to thrive both on and off the ice remains key.
The road is uncertain, but there’s no need for panic. The Maple Leafs will approach the situation with a strategic mindset, keeping their eyes on the long-term vision and the betterment of the team overall.
It Isn’t Nylander or Nothing
If Nylander walks to free agency, the narrative is that they will lose him for nothing. That’s not true. The team would gain the $10 million they didn’t spend to go free-agent hunting. Perhaps there’s an “asset” out there that fits the team’s needs more than Nylander.
I’d be sad to see him go, but that’s the choice he and his agent seem to be forcing right now. The Maple Leafs don’t have to play that game.
In truth, the goal is a fair contract that both sides are happy with. One side “beating” the other will not build a happy relationship over the long haul. Neither side would be wise to force that end.
