On Sept. 3, the Edmonton Oilers signed star forward Leon Draisaitl to an eight-year extension worth $112 million. With an average annual value (AAV) of $14 million, the contract carries the largest AAV in NHL history.
Related: 8 Biggest Contracts in Edmonton Oilers History
Draisaitl, who was set to become a free agent next summer when his current eight-year deal expires, is now under contract with the Oilers through the 2032-33 season.
With Draisaitl locked up for the long term, all of Oil Country’s focus has shifted to Connor McDavid, who has two seasons remaining on his current eight-year contract.
McDavid is one year away from being in the same situation as Draisaitl was this summer, entering the final year of his current eight-year deal.
Keeping McDavid in Edmonton won’t be cheap, and the Oilers will be challenged to work within the salary cap, especially with Evan Bouchard due a massive pay raise when the defenceman’s contract runs out at the end of the 2024-25 season.
On Monday (Sept. 9), former NHL player turned TSN analyst Frank Corrado took an in-depth look at the potential numbers in McDavid’s next contract, and provided some very interesting insight on how the Oilers can make it all work.
McDavid Will Get More Money Than Draisaitl
Corrado says that McDavid will get a bigger contract than Draisaitl’s historic deal. He might as well have added that water is wet and the sky is blue. As good as Draisaitl is, Edmonton’s captain is the best player on the planet, and he’ll get paid like it.
Draisaitl got to dictate the terms of his deal, Corrado says, and so will McDavid. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he will try to squeeze the Oilers for every last penny.
“Keeping in mind the spirit of this team trying to win a Stanley Cup and if they don’t get that done, especially before (McDavid’s next contract) gets done, he’s going to have to be cognisant of leaving a little bit of money on the board,” says Corrado.
McDavid Could Sign For $16 Million Annually
In trying to determine what the numbers on McDavid’s next contract could look like, Corrado uses the salary cap as a guide. The cap is currently at $88 million, meaning Draisaitl’s extension has an AAV of 15.9% of the cap.
While the salary cap hasn’t increased much in recent years, Corrado believes it will increase towards $92 million. In that case, if McDavid signed an extension of $16 million per season, the deal would have an AAV that’s 17.3% of the cap.
“Seventeen percent of the cap is higher than what Leon Draisaitl signed for, it still gives Connor McDavid plenty more money than Leon Draisaitl signed for, although that is not going to be the determining factor when Connor McDavid does his deal,” says Corrado. “The determining factor is going to be how can I stay here for a long time and win here for a long time.”
McDavid’s contract will not reach as high as 20% of the cap, Corrado also says. “He’s not going to handcuff his team that much.”
Bouchard Could Command $10 Million Per Season
Corrado says that Bouchard, who is currently making $3.9 million per season on a two-year contract signed in August 2023, will have a compelling case for a deal with an AAV of $10 million, especially if the defenceman puts up 90-95 points. Last season saw Bouchard put up 82 points in the regular season and 32 more in the playoffs, in what was the most prolific offensive campaign by an Oilers blueliner not named Paul Coffey.
But Bouchard’s play in his own zone isn’t at a level that would put him in the class of a No. 1 defenceman. Corrado wonders if the Oilers want to spend that kind of money on a defenceman who rides shotgun on Edmonton’s top pairing with Mattias Ekholm.
“He’s not Cale Makar, he’s not Quinn Hughes, he’s not a one-man show,” Corrado says of Bouchard, who turns 25 next month. “He’s great on the power-play (but) he still needs a bit of a stabilizer. So $10 million for Evan Bouchard? While the numbers might be there, that’s a lot of money to pay a guy that still needs to ride shotgun with a stable player.”
Oilers Could Have Half of Cap Tied Up in 4 Players
The Oilers are already paying defenceman Darnell Nurse $9.25 million annually through 2029-30. Factoring in Draisaitl and McDavid’s deals, giving Bouchard $10 million per season would mean that well over half the cap is tied up in four players.
The way to work around that issue, of course, is to sign players who are willing to take less to win. And in the case of the Oilers, that might actually be a realistic solution.
“The thing that they’ll have going for them, and I would argue that they’ve had this going for the last little while, is Connor McDavid,” Corrado says. “Players say, ‘I want to play with Connor McDavid. This guy is going to win a Stanley Cup sooner rather than later.’”
Jeff Skinner is the perfect example, notes Corrado. In July, Skinner signed a one-year deal with the Oilers for $3 million after having his previous contract bought out by the Buffalo Sabres. The 32-year-old has 357 goals in 1,006 career games and is estimated to have made over $100 million in his NHL tenure, but is yet to suit up for a single postseason game.
“You got bought out, you say, ‘I got that money already, let’s go try and win something. Let’s go try and play a Stanley Cup Playoff game for the first time in your career,’” Corrado says.
“You will have instances like that pop up where players will say okay, the eight-year, $68 million deal, that’s not on the table for me right now, so what’s the next best thing? Let’s position myself to win a Stanley Cup, so that the longer-term deal is available for you afterwards when you’re branded a champion.”
McDavid Shuts Down Contract Chatter
For his part, McDavid isn’t willing to publicly talk extension at this point. He put a pin in that balloon when the subject was raised by media on Tuesday (Sept. 10).
“It’s something that I’m not going to worry about or really deal with,” McDavid said after an informal skate in Edmonton. “It’s a question that I’ll answer once, and that’s that I’m worried about this year, I’m worried about getting ready for the season, both myself personally and the group, and that’s where my focus is at, it’s not on anything else. That stuff takes care of itself, it’s not something I’m worried about.”
McDavid understandably wants to avoid the contract topic, which could become a distraction for his team, but the chatter in Oil Country is only going to increase as the time left on his current deal decreases. The coming year will be a fascinating time in Edmonton, both on the ice and off.
